Tag: Featured

  • Kansas jobs, September 2020

    Kansas jobs, September 2020

    In Kansas for September 2020, the unemployment rate continued to fall, but both the labor force and the number of jobs also fell.

    Data released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effect of the pandemic and the response to it on employment in Kansas for September 2020.

    (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

    Using seasonally adjusted data, from August 2020 to September 2020, nonfarm employment in Kansas fell by 7,200 jobs (0.5 percent). Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for September 2020 was lower by 63,000 (4.4 percent) over the same month last year. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is 62,600 fewer jobs (4.4 percent).

    Over the year (September 2019 to September 2020), the Kansas labor force fell by 14,427 people (1.0 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with a decline of 23,577 (1.6 percent) over the last month. Non-seasonal data shows a decline of 16,673 (1.0 percent) in the labor force over the year.

    The Kansas economy had been adding jobs each month since May, so the decline in September is notable. The national economy added jobs, although a small number, and less than previous months since the pandemic started.

    The number of unemployed persons fell from August 2020 to September 2020 by 15,809 (15.3 percent). The unemployment rate was 5.9 percent in September, up 2.8 percentage points from one year ago, and down 1.0 percentage points from last month.

    Comparing Kansas to the nation: Using seasonal data, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs is 4.43 percent lower than 12 months ago, while nationally, the same statistic is 6.37 percent lower. Non-seasonal data shows the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs is 4.39 percent lower than 12 months ago, while nationally, the same statistic is 6.40 percent lower.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, the magnitude of the changes in April through August overwhelms the other months. Note the loss of jobs for Kansas in September.

    In the following chart of job levels from the same month one year ago, the September figures show the loss of jobs becoming less pronounced for both Kansas and the nation, but the trend towards recovery is slowing.

    In the following chart of unemployment rates, we see that the rate in Kansas is lower than the national rate, both before and after the pandemic.

    In the following chart of changes in the labor force for Kansas and the nation, the labor force has both grown and shrank since the pandemic.

    The June release contained figures for industry groups. The following chart shows the number of employees in September 2019 and September 2020.

    This chart uses the same data, showing the percent change from September 2019. The Leisure and hospitality category is still the lowest, proportionally, followed by Mining and logging. The only industry group to gain employees is Construction, and the gain was small. (Note the horizontal scale is from positive to negative values when moving left to right.)

  • Intrust Bank Arena loss for 2019 nears $5 million

    Intrust Bank Arena loss for 2019 nears $5 million

    A truthful accounting of the finances of Intrust Bank Arena in downtown Wichita shows a large loss.

    The true state of the finances of the Intrust Bank Arena in downtown Wichita are not often a subject of public discussion. Arena boosters cite a revenue-sharing arrangement between the county and the arena operator, referring to this as profit or loss. But this arrangement is not an accurate and complete accounting, and it hides the true economics of the arena. What’s missing is depreciation expense.

    There are at least two ways of looking at the finance of the arena. Nearly all attention is given to the “profit” (or loss) earned by the arena for the county according to an operating agreement between the county and ASM Global, a company that operates the arena. SMG, the former operator of the arena, merged with another company to form ASM Global.

    This agreement specifies a revenue sharing mechanism between the county and ASM. For 2109, the accounting method used in this agreement produced a profit, or “net building income,” of $1,021,721 to be split (not equally) between SMG and the county. The county’s share was $310,861. (1)The Operations of INTRUST Bank Arena, as Managed by ASM Global. Independent Auditor’s Report and Special-Purpose Financial Statements. December 31, 2019. Available here.

    While described as “profit” by many, this payment does not represent any sort of “profit” or “earnings” in the usual sense. In fact, the introductory letter that accompanies these calculations warns readers that these are “not intended to be a complete presentation of INTRUST Bank Arena’s financial position and results of operations in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America.” (2)Ibid, page 2.

    That bears repeating: This is not a reckoning of profit and loss in any recognized sense. It is simply an agreement between Sedgwick County and SMG as to how SMG is to be paid, and how the county participates.

    A much better reckoning of the economics of the Intrust Bank Arena can be found in the 2019 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report for Sedgwick County. (3)Sedgwick County. Comprehensive Annual Financial Report of the County of Sedgwick, Kansas for the Year ended December 31, 2019. Available at https://www.sedgwickcounty.org/finance/comprehensive-annual-financial-reports/. This document holds additional information about the finances of the Intrust Bank Arena. The CAFR, as described by the county, “… is a review of what occurred financially last year. In that respect, it is a report card of our ability to manage our financial resources.”

    Regarding the arena in 2019, the CAFR states:

    The Arena Fund represents the activity of the INTRUST Bank Arena. The facility is operated by a private company; the County incurs expenses only for certain capital improvements or major repairs and depreciation, and receives as revenue only a share of profits earned by the operator, if any, and naming rights fees. The Arena Fund had an operating loss of $5.0 million. The loss can be attributed to $5.0 million in depreciation expense.

    Financial statements in the same document show that $4,993,361 was charged for depreciation in 2019. If we subtract the ASM payment to the county of $310,861 from depreciation expense, we learn that the Intrust Bank Arena lost $4,682,500 in 2019.

    Depreciation expense is not something that is paid out in cash. That is, Sedgwick County did not write a check for $4,682,500 to pay depreciation expense. Instead, depreciation accounting provides a way to recognize and account for the cost of long-lived assets over their lifespan. It provides a way to recognize opportunity costs, that is, what could be done with our resources if not spent on the arena.

    But not many of our civic leaders recognize this, at least publicly. We — frequently — observe our governmental and civic leaders telling us that we must “run government like a business.” The county’s financial report makes mention of this: “Sedgwick County has one business-type activity, the Arena fund. Net position for fiscal year 2019 decreased by $5.0 million to $146.6 million. Of that $146.6 million, $138.9 million is invested in capital assets. The decrease can be attributed to depreciation, which was $5.0 million.” (4)CAFR, page A-10. (emphasis added)

    At the same time, these leaders avoid frank and realistic discussion of economic facts. As an example, in years past Commissioner Dave Unruh made remarks that illustrate the severe misunderstanding under which he and almost everyone labor regarding the nature of spending on the arena: “I want to underscore the fact that the citizens of Sedgwick County voted to pay for this facility in advance. And so not having debt service on it is just a huge benefit to our government and to the citizens, so we can go forward without having to having to worry about making those payments and still show positive cash flow. So it’s still a great benefit to our community and I’m still pleased with this report.”

    The contention — witting or not — is that the capital investment of $183,625,241 (not including an operating and maintenance reserve) in the arena is merely a historical artifact, something that happened in the past, something that has no bearing today. There is no opportunity cost, according to this view. This attitude, however, disrespects the sacrifices of the people of Sedgwick County and its visitors to raise those funds. Since Kansas is one of the few states that adds sales tax to food, low-income households paid extra sales tax on their groceries to pay for the arena — an arena where they may not be able to afford tickets.

    Any honest accounting or reckoning of the performance of Intrust Bank Arena must take depreciation into account. While Unruh is correct that depreciation expense is not a cash expense that affects cash flow, it is an economic reality that can’t be ignored — except by politicians, apparently. The Wichita Eagle and Wichita Business Journal aid in promoting this deception.

    The upshot: We’re evaluating government and making decisions based on incomplete and false information, just to gratify the egos of self-serving politicians and bureaucrats.

    Reporting on Intrust Bank Arena financial data

    In February 2015 the Wichita Eagle reported: “The arena’s net income for 2014 came in at $122,853, all of which will go to SMG, the company that operates the facility under contract with the county, Assistant County Manager Ron Holt said Wednesday.” A reading of the minutes for the February 11 meeting of the Sedgwick County Commission finds Holt mentioning depreciation expense not a single time. Neither did the Eagle article.

    In December 2014, in a look at the first five years of the arena, its manager told the Wichita Eagle this: “‘We know from a financial standpoint, the building has been successful. Every year, it’s always been in the black, and there are a lot of buildings that don’t have that, so it’s a great achievement,’ said A.J. Boleski, the arena’s general manager.”

    The Wichita Eagle opinion page hasn’t been helpful, with Rhonda Holman opining with thoughts like this: “Though great news for taxpayers, that oversize check for $255,678 presented to Sedgwick County last week reflected Intrust Bank Arena’s past, specifically the county’s share of 2013 profits.” (For some years, the county paid to create a large “check” for publicity purposes.)

    That followed her op-ed from a year before, when she wrote: “And, of course, Intrust Bank Arena has the uncommon advantage among public facilities of having already been paid for, via a 30-month, 1 percent sales tax approved by voters in 2004 that actually went away as scheduled.” That thinking, of course, ignores the economic reality of depreciation.

    In 2018, the Wichita Eagle reported, based on partial-year results: “Intrust Bank Arena remains profitable but is reporting a 20 percent drop in income this year, despite a bump from the NCAA March Madness basketball tournament. Net income for the first three quarters of this year was about $556,000. That’s down from just shy of $700,000 last year, according to a report to the Sedgwick County Commission.” (5)Lefler, Dion. Despite March Madness, Intrust Bank Arena profit down 20 percent. December 7, 2018. Available at https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article222300675.html. This use of “profitable” is based only on the special revenue-sharing agreement, not generally accepted accounting principles.

    Even our city’s business press — which ought to know better — writes headlines like Intrust Bank Arena tops $1.1M in net income for 2015 without mentioning depreciation expense or explaining the non-conforming accounting methods used to derive this number.

    All of these examples are deficient in an important way: They contribute confusion to the search for truthful accounting of the arena’s finances. Recognizing depreciation expense is vital to understanding profit or loss, we’re not doing that.

    References

    References
    1The Operations of INTRUST Bank Arena, as Managed by ASM Global. Independent Auditor’s Report and Special-Purpose Financial Statements. December 31, 2019. Available here.
    2Ibid, page 2.
    3Sedgwick County. Comprehensive Annual Financial Report of the County of Sedgwick, Kansas for the Year ended December 31, 2019. Available at https://www.sedgwickcounty.org/finance/comprehensive-annual-financial-reports/.
    4CAFR, page A-10.
    5Lefler, Dion. Despite March Madness, Intrust Bank Arena profit down 20 percent. December 7, 2018. Available at https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article222300675.html.

  • Local government employment in Kansas

    Local government employment in Kansas

    Kansas has nearly the highest number of local government employees per resident, compared to other states.

    These are local government employees only. State and federal government employees are not included. The source of this data is the United States Census Bureau. I’ve gathered it and created an interactive visualization. Additionally, using each state’s population for each year, I’ve also computed the annual payroll on a per-resident basis and the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) employees per thousand residents.

    For all local government employees, Kansas had 50.55 employees per thousand residents in 2016, higher than all states (and areas) but the District of Columbia and Wyoming. These employees had an annual payroll of $2,355.09 per resident. Eleven states were higher.

    For the country as a whole, the values are 37.33 employees and annual payroll of $2,232.01 per thousand residents.

    Considering elementary and secondary education, Kansas had 29.58 such employees per thousand residents. This was higher than all states but Wyoming. The payroll for these employees was $1,237.80 per resident, with thirteen states above Kansas.

    Kansas is a small state in terms of population. Might small states have higher needs for employees on a per-resident basis? A plot of employees vs. population shows nearly no relationship between the two. Plots using urban percentage and population density show somewhat stronger relationships, but nothing very significant. (In these plots, I removed the District of Columbia from the data, as it is a special case that is all urbanized.)

    Click charts for larger versions.

    These are local government employees only. State and federal government employees are not included. Sometimes this causes discrepancies that need to be understood by considering other data. For example, Hawaii has no local employees in elementary and secondary education, as it has one school district which is run by the state. 1 Because education is a large expense for local governments (in most cases), Hawaii, in these charts, ranks as the state with the lowest number of government employees, considering only local government employees.

    Click here to learn about the visualization and use it to make your own charts and tables.

    Example from the visualization. Click for larger.
    Example from the visualization. Click for larger.

    — Notes

    1. Wikipedia. Hawai’i Department of Education. Available at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawai%27i_Department_of_Education.
  • Kansas government employment and payroll by function

    Kansas government employment and payroll by function

    Looking at the number of state government employees in proportion to population, Kansas has many compared to other states.

    Each year the United States Census Bureau surveys federal, state, and local government civilian employees. I’ve gathered this data and present it in an interactive visualization using several views and supplementary calculations.

    The Census Bureau collects both counts of employees and payroll dollars. Comparisons based on the number of employees are useful, bypassing issues such as differing costs of living and salaries in general.

    Considering all government functions and state government employees only, Kansas had 18.7 full-time equivalent (FTE) employees per thousand residents in 2019. 12 states had more. These figures are for state government only. Many government employees are employed by local governments such as cities, counties, and school districts. These employees are not included in this visualization.

    In the nearby chart showing Kansas and nearby states, the level of employment in Kansas is high and rising for total employment and education employment.

    Click for larger

    For details and to access the visualization, click on: Visualization: State government employment by state and function.

  • Kansas GDP

    Kansas GDP

    In the second quarter of 2020, the Kansas economy contracted at the annual rate of 30.3 percent, compared to contraction of 3.5 percent in the previous quarter. While GDP fell in all states, Kansas performed better than most, ranking nineteenth.

    In the second quarter of 2020, the Kansas economy contracted at the annual rate of 30.3 percent in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, according to statistics released Friday by Bureau of Economic Analysis, a division of the United States Department of Commerce. GDP for the quarter was at the annual rate of $161,464 million in current dollars, down from $177,917 the previous quarter. The second quarter consists of the months of April, May, and June.

    Click for larger.

    This the second quarter to be affected by the response to the pandemic, as BEA noted in the release accompanying the data:

    The decline in second quarter GDP reflected the response to COVID-19, as “stay-at-home” orders issued in March and April were partially lifted in some areas of the country in May and June, and government pandemic assistance payments were distributed to households and businesses. This led to rapid shifts in activity, as businesses and schools continued remote work and consumers and businesses canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.

    The Kansas rate of -30.3 percent ranked nineteenth among the states, meaning Kansas avoided the effects of the pandemic more than most states. (In the first quarter, only four states contracted less than Kansas.) The national rate was -31.4 percent, with the rate for the Plains states at -30.6 percent. (For this data, BEA defines Plains states as Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.)

    Over the last eight quarters, Kansas has averaged quarterly growth rates of -3.3 percent in annual terms. For the nation, the rate was -2.9 percent. For the Plains states, it was -3.2 percent.

    In the table of industries, we see that Kansas industries that declined significantly are Durable goods manufacturing, Nondurable goods manufacturing, Transportation and warehousing, Health care and social assistance, and Government and government enterprises.

    For the complete release at BEA, click on Gross Domestic Product by State, 2nd Quarter 2020.

    I also have developed an interactive visualization of this data over time. To access, click on Visualization: Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product by state and industry.

  • Wichita jobs and employment, August 2020

    Wichita jobs and employment, August 2020

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in August 2020, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is down, all by large amounts, when compared to the same month one year ago. The recent trend, however, is positive, although Wichita is recovering slower than the nation.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effects of the response to the pandemic in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for August 2020.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment fell from 303,900 last August to 289,100 in August 2020, a loss of 14,800 jobs (4.9 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation fell by 7.0 percent. The unemployment rate in August 2020 was 10.2 percent, up from 3.6 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force fell by 1,201 persons (0.4 percent) in August 2020 from July 2020, the number of unemployed persons fell by 1,962 (5.7 percent), and the unemployment rate was 10.1 percent, down from 10.7 percent in June. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 287,361 in August from 286,600 the prior month, an increase of 761 persons (0.3 percent).

    The following chart of the monthly change in the labor force and employment shows the magnitude of drop in April overwhelming other months, and then a positive change in employment for the following months. The rate of increase in employment has generally slowed since a large jump in May. Note the fall in the labor force for the month.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows a similar same trend — fewer jobs, although the labor force is larger.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. In all months affected by the pandemic, we see the decline in employment Wichita has not been as severe as the nation.

    The following chart shows the monthly change in nonfarm jobs for Wichita and the nation. For August, the change was nearly the same for Wichita and the nation, but in the two previous months jobs grew slower in Wichita.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

    (For data on all metropolitan areas in the nation, see my interactive visualization Metro area employment and unemployment.)

  • Kansas school spending, through 2020

    Kansas school spending, through 2020

    Charts of Kansas school spending presented in different forms.

    Recently Kansas State Department of Education released spending figures for the 2020 school year, that is, the school year starting in 2019 and ending in 2020.

    One of the most important charts shows state spending per-pupil, adjusted for inflation. It shows the total of state and local spending, which is useful because in 2015 the state made a change in the way revenue is allocated between state and local sources. It also shows base state aid per pupil, which is an important number as it is the starting point for the school funding formula.

    Why is total state and local spending higher than base state aid? The answer is weightings. These are amounts that are added to the base to pay for things like at-risk children, English language learners, and other items. The value of weightings has grown over time, so as base state aid has generally fallen, total spending has generally risen.

    A second chart shows the ratio of total state and local spending to base state aid.

    This is not simply a technical matter. In discussions of school policy, sometimes only the base aid figure is used. As it has fallen, some formulate an argument that school spending has been cut. That is easily refuted by looking at total state and local spending.

    Of note, base state aid was not used in school years 2016 and 2017, which explains the gap in some of the series.

    I’ve gathered these charts and others and present them in a presentation. Use arrow keys to move through the charts. Click here to access.

    Kansas school spending, showing state and local aid compared to base state aid. Click for larger.

    Kansas school spending, showing ratio of state and local aid to base state aid. Click for larger.

  • Kansas jobs, August 2020

    Kansas jobs, August 2020

    The employment situation in Kansas rose continued to improve in August 2020 as the response to the pandemic continued to affect the economy.

    Data released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effect of the pandemic and the response to it on employment in Kansas for August 2020.

    (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

    Using seasonally adjusted data, from July 2020 to August 2020, nonfarm employment in Kansas rose by 9,300 (0.7 percent). Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for August 2020 was lower by 61,400 (4.3 percent) over the same month last year. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is 63,200 fewer jobs (4.5 percent).

    Over the year (August 2019 to August 2020), the Kansas labor force is up by 9,280 (0.6 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with an increase of 6,038 (0.4 percent) over the last month. Non-seasonal data shows a rise of 9,427 (0.6 percent) in the labor force over the year.

    Of note: While the number of jobs and working people rose by large amounts in August, both are smaller than before the response to the pandemic.

    The number of unemployed persons fell from July 2020 to August 2020 by 3,557 (3.3 percent). The unemployment rate was 6.9 percent in August, up 3.8 percentage points from one year ago, and down 0.3 percentage points from last month.

    Comparing Kansas to the nation: Using seasonal data, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs is 4.30 percent lower than 12 months ago, while nationally, the same statistic is 6.78 percent lower. Non-seasonal data shows the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs is 4.46 percent lower than 12 months ago, while nationally, the same statistic is 6.98 percent lower.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, the magnitude of the changes in April through August overwhelms the other months. The rise in August employment is smaller than the rise from May through July.

    In the following chart of job levels from the same month one year ago, the August figures show the loss of jobs becoming less pronounced, a trend that has lasted four months.

    The June release contained figures for industry groups. The following chart shows the number of employees in August 2019 and August 2020.

    This chart uses the same data, showing the percent change from August 2019. The Leisure and hospitality category is still the lowest, proportionally, followed by Mining and logging. Construction gained employees over the year. (Note the horizontal scale is from positive to negative values when moving left to right.)

  • Wichita jobs and employment, July 2020

    Wichita jobs and employment, July 2020

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in July 2020, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is down, all by large amounts, when compared to the same month one year ago. The recent trend, however, is positive, and the effects of the pandemic have been less severe for Wichita than for the nation.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effects of the response to the pandemic in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for July 2020.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment fell from 302,000 last July to 284,800 in July 2020, a loss of 17,200 jobs (5.7 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation fell by 7.7 percent. The unemployment rate in July 2020 was 10.9 percent, up from 3.9 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 564 persons (0.2 percent) in July 2020 from June 2020, the number of unemployed persons fell by 289 (0.8 percent), and the unemployment rate was 10.8 percent, down from 10.9 percent in June. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 284,162 in July from 283,309 the prior month, an increase of 853 persons (0.3 percent).

    The following chart of the monthly change in the labor force and employment shows the magnitude of drop in April overwhelming other months, and then a positive change in employment for the following months. The rate of increase in employment has slowed since a large jump in May.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows a similar same trend — fewer jobs, although the labor force grew.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows many months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. In all months affected by the pandemic, we see the decline in employment Wichita has not been as severe as the nation.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

    (For data on all metropolitan areas in the nation, see my interactive visualization Metro area employment and unemployment.)