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Kansas fourth district poll shows Pompeo lead, little change

A KWCH Television and SurveyUSA poll of candidates for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas shows little change from a similar poll about a month ago.

The poll shows Republican Mike Pompeo leading Democrat Raj Goyle by 50 percent to 40 percent. These numbers changed just slightly from the previous survey, which had Pompeo leading 49 percent to 42 percent. Neither of the changes are statistically significant.

Four percent of the voters are undecided.

Other results include Reform party candidate Susan Ducey with four percent, and Libertarian David Moffett with three percent.

SurveyUSA’s commentary is as follows: “Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, Pompeo is up an insignificant 1 point; Goyle is down an insignificant 2. Pompeo has gained ground among the oldest, traditionally the most reliable voters, where he had trailed by 16, now leads by 4. Goyle offsets this by cutting into Pompeo’s lead among middle-aged voters, where Pompeo had led by 34 points, now leads by 20. 18% of Republicans today cross over to vote for Goyle, down from 22% last month; 12% of Democrats cross over to vote for Pompeo, up from 6% last month. Independents today lean slightly toward Goyle, favoring the Democrat by 7 points, up from a nominal 2-point lead 1 month ago.”

Goyle’s campaign has released the results of its own poll from last week, which shows Pompeo leading Goyle by 46 percent to 44 percent, a closer lead than the KWCH/SurveyUSA poll. No details of its methodology were released.

During the primary election, Jean Schodorf’s campaign released surveys that showed her to be leading. In the end, the KWCH/SurveyUSA poll correctly predicted Pompeo as the winner, although it understated the vote he actually received.

During the period between the two KWCH/SurveyUSA polls, Goyle has been actively advertising on television. The Pompeo campaign started advertising on September 9th, just before this poll was conducted.

Kansas fourth Congressional district poll resultsKansas fourth Congressional district poll results
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3 Comments

  1. Ann H. September 18, 2010

    My husband got polled for the KWCH poll, and I got polled for another, probably the Goyle campaign poll. My husband and I have never been polled in our entire lives and now in the last 2 months we’ve been polled a combination of 3 times. I wonder if there’s a lot more polling going on in this potentially historic election season, or if it’s just chance?

    Anyway, glad to see Pompeo is on top! There are a lot of Goyle signs around my area of Wichita, more than Pompeo, and I wondered how well he was doing against Pompeo. I also saw a TV ad where Goyle sounded very conservative, saying he opposed bailouts. Opposing bailouts is a good way to get a lot of people behind you these days.

  2. Shawn Smith September 18, 2010

    Bob, David Moffett had to withdraw because of health reasons. I am running in place of him.

  3. Anonymous Mike September 20, 2010

    Hi, does anyone know how much money Goyle and Pompeo are getting from their respective National Committees? If you don’t have enough of your own money to fund a campaign, you’re obligated to the Majority (or Minority) Party leader in the House or Senate or campaign money. In short, if you need a a lot of money from the National Committee, you’ll vote how you’re told by the Party Leadership no matter what the opinion of the voters is. In past years, that’s been more of a Democratic thing than Republican, but only slightly more… In short, a vote for Goyle is DEFINITELY a vote for Nancy Pelosi. Pompeo probably has a little more leeway.

    Even if Goyle is actually voting his conscious in voting against bailouts, and for lower taxes, he may have to loose that whole conscious thing in DC.

    Mike

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