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Kansas fourth district

The speaker at this Friday’s meeting (September 3rd) of the Wichita Pachyderm Club is candidate for the United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas Mike Pompeo.

Pompeo, a Republican, is challenged by Reform party candidate Susan Ducey, Democrat Raj Goyle, and Libertarian David Moffett.

All are welcome to attend Wichita Pachyderm Club meetings. The program costs $10, which includes a delicious buffet lunch including salad, soup, two main dishes, and ice tea and coffee. The meeting starts at noon, although it’s recommended to arrive fifteen minutes early to get your lunch before the program starts.

The Wichita Petroleum Club is on the ninth floor of the Bank of America Building at 100 N. Broadway (north side of Douglas between Topeka and Broadway) in Wichita, Kansas (click for a map and directions). You may park in the garage (enter west side of Broadway between Douglas and First Streets) and use the sky walk to enter the Bank of America building. The Petroleum Club will stamp your parking ticket and the fee will be $1.00. Or, there is usually some metered and free street parking nearby.

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Roberts endorses Mike Pompeo

by Bob Weeks on August 24, 2010

in Politics

This morning United States Senator Pat Roberts stopped by the Mike Pompeo campaign headquarters in east Wichita to endorse Pompeo in his campaign for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas.

In his endorsement, Roberts said that Pompeo knows the airplane manufacturing business and how to meet a payroll. Roberts said that the general aviation industry is in a fight almost every session of Congress, and that Pompeo’s knowledge of this industry will be a plus in Washington.

Roberts described Pompeo’s leading opponent — Democrat Raj Goyle — as having a “very liberal background.” Roberts described how some of his colleagues in the Senate on the other side of the aisle — meaning they are Democrats — would make conservative speeches in their home states, but vote the Democratic party line in Washington. He told the audience “We cannot afford to send anybody, no matter what they say in this campaign, to Washington when the first vote they will cast will be for Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.”

Roberts also said that Pompeo’s military background and experience means he understands the value of national security, which Roberts said is the first obligation of the federal government. He added that Pompeo would be a good match for the armed services committee.

Roberts characterized this election as a “crossroads,” although he recognized this word is overused. Bureaucratic agencies in Washington are planning to further the Obama agenda without Congress, creating what he called a “fourth branch of government.”

Their ultimate goal is to implement cap-and-trade energy regulation and taxation without the consent of Congress, Roberts told the audience. “Either we’re going to make decisions with the consent of the governed and send a message to Congress, or they’re going to make the decisions for us, and we’re going to have to live with it.”

In his remarks, Pompeo said this is a unique election, as “we stand as a nation in a place we have not been in my lifetime,” citing the recent large federal deficit spending. This, he said, was his primary reason for deciding to run for Congress. He said that Goyle, his opponent, thinks about the world “in a way that’s very different from most Kansans” and has an East Coast philosophy and experiences that represent the Obama/Pelosi agenda. That agenda is not right for Kansas, he added.

I asked about the upcoming lame duck session of Congress — the period after the November election and before newly-elected members take office: If there is a big win by Republicans, is there a danger that many just-defeated members will be voting on potentially important legislation?

Roberts answered that there should not be a lame duck session. Specific areas of concern during the session include card check, immigration, raising taxes in a recession, and other things that would further the Obama agenda.

He said that there are 125,000 more federal employees now than when Obama assumed office, and that their average salary is $125,000. These people are the fourth branch of government, he said, and they’re trying to get the Obama agenda passed despite — or around — Congress.

A lame duck session with partisan political goals is not in the best interest of America, and there is a danger of that, he said.

Besides Pompeo and Goyle other candidates in this race are Reform party candidate Susan Ducey and Libertarian David Moffett.

Additional coverage is available at the Wichita Eagle and at State of the State KS, which includes video.

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Raj Goyle, candidate for Congress, has pledged to protect social security. He doesn’t mention the tax increase that will be required to fulfill this pledge.

Goyle’s opponents in the campaign for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas are Reform party candidate Susan Ducey, Libertarian David Moffett, and Republican Mike Pompeo.

In his pledge, Goyle promises to “work for real solutions that strengthen Social Security for the long term.” Specifically, he pledges to oppose all efforts at privatization and raising the retirement age to 70.

The problem is that after ruling out reforms like these, there’s not much left to do except to raise taxes. Evidence of this can be found in today’s Wichita Eagle, which carries an editorial from the Los Angeles Times. Titled Ignore fearmongering on Social Security, it mostly looks back at opposition to the formation of the Social Security system 75 years ago.

But the article recognizes that the system needs “minor adjustments” to remain solvent. The authors write: “Economists say that raising the income ceiling on the payroll tax, applying the Social Security tax to nonwage income or adding a modest increase to the payroll tax could add decades to the health of the Social Security trust fund.”

Each of these policy changes is a tax increase. The article lists no other solutions than these.

These recommendations are not Goyle’s. He hasn’t said what he would do to place the system on a sound financial footing.

But there’s not much that we can do except raise taxes if we want to keep the current system.

We need to do something quickly. Social Security will pay out more in benefits this year than it receives in contributions from payroll taxes. It had been thought that this milestone would not be reached until 2017 or later.

There are those who cite the Social Security trust fund and its large balance of over $2 trillion as evidence that the system is doing well. But as Thomas Sowell explains, the trust fund is merely an illusion. The money in the fund has already been spent by government agencies. The only way they can pay back the fund is through tax revenues.

It’s not as though Republicans are confronting the problem head-on. One of the few officeholders willing to do so is Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, who is ranking member of the House Budget Committee. His Roadmap for America’s future is a plan that recognizes the seriousness of the current situation, not only with Social Security, but in other areas of the federal budget.

His recommendations, specific as they are, cause consternation among some Republicans who would rather talk about problems in general terms rather than specifics. A recent Washington Post profile of Ryan referred to “… many Republican colleagues, who, even as they praise Ryan for his doggedness, privately consider the Roadmap a path to electoral disaster. Unlike most politicians of either party, he doesn’t speak generically about reducing spending, but he does acknowledge the very real cuts in popular programs that will be required to bring down the debt.”

Also: “House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) has alternately praised Ryan and emphasized that his ideas are not those of the party.”

The fact that frank talk about the budget and government spending might be an electoral disaster is a bad sign for America.

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In the race for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas between Democrat Raj Goyle and Republican Mike Pompeo, there’s a distinct difference in the nature and source of campaign contributions for the two candidates. So far, 70 percent of Goyle’s campaign contributions have come from donors outside Kansas, with Washington DC being the metropolitan area with the highest source of contributions.

Analysis of campaign contributions may be found at OpenSecrets.org, a project of the Center for Responsive Politics. The following tables are based on data through the last comprehensive reporting period, which ended June 30, 2010.

As of that date, Goyle had raised $1,255,403, and Pompeo had raised $935,084.

The distribution between in-state and out-of-state donors is this:

                In Kansas       Out of Kansas
Raj Goyle     $306,151 (30%)    $721,322 (70%)
Mike Pompeo   $646,572 (79%)    $167,743 (21%)

During the primary election, a frequent criticism of Pompeo made by his opponents was that he was a “Washington insider,” and that was where much of his support and campaign funds were coming from. When looking at the metropolitan areas that contributions have come from, we see that little of Pompeo’s campaign contributions came from Washington, while Washington is the single largest source of Goyle’s funds, outpacing Wichita, the dominant population center in the fourth Congressional district of Kansas:

For Raj Goyle:
Metro Area                  Total
WASHINGTON, DC-MD-VA-WV   $195,827
WICHITA                   $169,851
NEW YORK                  $109,385
KANSAS CITY, MO-KS        $105,400
SAN FRANCISCO              $35,552

For Mike Pompeo:
Metro Area                  Total
WICHITA                   $585,617
CHICAGO                    $20,400
WASHINGTON, DC-MD-VA-WV    $18,326
KANSAS CITY, MO-KS         $17,250
DALLAS                     $11,950

An area of concern for some voters is the influence of political action committees (PACs). In the primary election, Pompeo’s opponents made frequent charges that he was beholden to PAC money. Looking again at data from OpenSecrets, we see that Goyle has received $76,250 in contributions from sources that OpenSecrets classifies as PACs. The figure for Pompeo is $28,000.

OpenSecrets also classifies contributions based on the industry of the donor. For each candidate, here are the top five industries that made contributions:

For Raj Goyle:
Sector                   Total
Lawyers & Lobbyists    $120,538
Finance/Insur/RealEst  $104,500
Ideology/Single-Issue  $100,629
Other                   $75,094
Health                  $72,403

For Mike Pompeo:
Sector                   Total
Finance/Insur/RealEst  $102,993
Energy/Nat Resource     $62,850
Construction            $35,950
Other                   $35,700
Lawyers & Lobbyists     $33,150

In the Republican primary, Pompeo’s opponents charged that he was too close to lobbyists, but this category made up relatively little of his campaign dollars. If lobbyist contributions are a concern for voters, this industry category is the leading source of contributions for Goyle.

An area where Goyle does better than Pompeo is in what OpenSecrets calls “quality of disclosure,” meaning how well the contributions include the names of donors and their occupations and employers. For Goyle, 3.1 percent of the contributions (based on dollar amounts) have “incomplete” or “none” for these pieces of data. For Pompeo, the figure is 11.8 percent.

These reports include contributions made only through June 30, 2010. The focus at that time was the primary election, more for Republicans than Democrats, as Goyle faced an inexperienced and under-funded candidate, although at one time Goyle trailed in a poll. Now that the general election is the focus for both candidates, the characteristics and distribution of contributions may change.

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The first public poll covering the race for United States Congress from the Kansas fourth district shows a close race between the two leading contenders, with Republican Mike Pompeo edging Democrat Raj Goyle by 49 percent to 42 percent.

Libertarian Party candidate David Moffett received four percent support, and Reform party candidate Susan Ducey received one percent. Five percent were undecided.

The poll was released by KWCH Television in Wichita and SurveyUSA. The poll’s margin of sampling error was not given, but previous polls by this firm and similar to this have had a margin of sampling error of about four percentage points.

Pompeo receives strong support from young voters. For those under 50 years old, Pompeo leads 59 percent to 28 percent, while for voters over 50, he trails Goyle by 41 percent to 51 percent.

Men favor Pompeo 53 percent to 38 percent, while women favor Goyle 46 percent to 44 percent.

Those who attend church regularly, those with pro-life beliefs, and gun owners favored Pompeo. Democrats, Independents, those with self-described moderate beliefs, and voters with incomes less than $50,000 favored Goyle.

Important dates for voters to remember are these:

October 13: Election offices begin mailing advance voting ballots

October 18: Last day to register to vote or change party affiliation for the general election

October 27: Last day for election office to mail advance voting applications

October 29: Last day for election office to mail advance voting ballots

November 2: Election day

Kansas fourth Congressional district pollKansas fourth Congressional district poll, August 12, 2010

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Kansas polls and election results

by Bob Weeks on August 5, 2010

in Politics

In the hotly contested Kansas Republican primary elections this year, polls generated a lot of interest. In two Kansas Congressional districts, independent polls did a good job of predicting the vote for all candidates except the two winners, and a candidate’s own poll may have been undermined by large voter turnout.

In a KWCH/SurveyUSA poll of the Kansas first Congressional district, the poll accurately (within the margin of sampling error) predicted the outcomes for all candidates except for victor Tim Huelskamp. The survey predicted 24 percent of the vote for him, and the actual vote was 35 percent. This poll had three candidates tied, so it didn’t predict a winner.

The same group also polled the fourth Congressional district. For three candidates — Jim Anderson, Wink Hartman, and Jean Schodorf, the poll predicted the exact percentage that the candidates actually received. The exception was winner Mike Pompeo. The poll predicted he would win and receive 31 percent of the vote. He did win, and his actual vote total was 39 percent.

An election eve poll by political consulting firm Singularis had mixed results in the fourth district, but is notable in that it predicted eventual winner Pompeo’s vote total closely. The poll indicated 37 percent of the vote, and the actual was 39 percent.

In the fourth district, Schodorf released four polls that her campaign commissioned. Each poll showed her support increasing, until in the third poll, she took the lead. In the fourth poll her lead increased.

When comparing this poll to actual election results, we find that Schodorf’s poll overstated her actual performance by six percentage points. The performance of Anderson and Hartman were understated by six and seven points. For winner Pompeo, the final Schodorf poll understated his performance by 13 percentage points. (These polls did not include candidate Paij Rutschman.)

In a conversation before the election with Schodorf’s pollster, he indicated several reasons why the numbers in her surveys were different than the KWCH/SurveyUSA poll numbers.

One difference between the polls was the source of the voters called by the pollsters. The KWCH/SurveyUSA polls started with a list of households. To determine likely voters, the pollster would ask respondents if they were going to vote. Schodorf’s polls used voter lists as a source, calling only on voters who had a history of voting in August primary elections.

Because many people look at voting as a positive civic duty, it is thought that people will overstate their actual tendency to vote, and this is a reason why polls might decide to use voter history as a selection device, especially in primary elections where turnout is generally low. It is standard practice of campaigns to use voter lists in their voter contact efforts.

But this year voter turnout was high. The Wichita Eagle reported voter turnout in Sedgwick County — home to about 71 percent of the population in the fourth district — was 25 percent. That’s higher than the 19 percent turnout predicted statewide, and higher than in most primary elections.

Considering Republican voters, the Sedgwick County election office reports there are 104,558 registered Republicans, and 49,967 Republican ballots were cast. That indicates a turnout of almost 48 percent, considering Sedgwick County only.

By calling only those with a history of primary voting, many people who voted in this election would not have been sampled by polls based on voter history.

The Schodorf polls were conducted by live operators, while the KWCH/SurveyUSA polls were automated response. This can lead to a difference in the types of people that respond to the poll.

In the Republican Senate primary between Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt, the final KWCH/SurveyUSA poll had Moran ahead by 49 to 39 percent, with eight percent undecided. The actual totals were Moran winning with 50 percent to Tiahrt’s 45 percent, so that poll understated Tiahrt’s total by six percentage points while correctly choosing the winner.

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Kansas primary election analysis

by Bob Weeks on August 4, 2010

in Politics

At State of the State KS, Fort Hays State University Political Science Professor Chapman Rackaway contributes analysis of the statewide and Congressional races.

Rackaway notes that the Kansas first and fourth Congressional districts were expected to be very close races, but both Tim Huelskamp and Mike Pompeo won going away with large margins.

The big message of the night, he writes, is this: “[Jerry] Moran’s win in the Senate primary suggests that the Kansas GOP prefers a more centrist message. But Moran’s win was an anomaly. Kobach, Pompeo, Brownback, and Huelskamp suggest that the state has taken a turn to the right.”

At National Review Online, Denis Boyles, author of the insightful book — despite its name — on Kansas politics Superior, Nebraska: The Common Sense Values of America’s Heartland, contributes (Mostly) Good News from Kansas. he starts by laying out the essential facts of the Kansas political landscape: “In Kansas, local politics is often made confusing by the powerful presence of very liberal RINOs [Republicans In Name Only]. They constitute a third party, and their half-century of influence has done some nasty work, most recently insuring the victory, twice, of Kathleen Sebelius.”

Boyles is enthusiastic about the first Congressional district result: “But for people who like their conservatism straight up — no glass, no ice — the best news may be the victory of state Sen. Tim Huelskamp.”

About the fourth district, Boyles wrote: “In Tiahrt’s district, a very liberal Democrat named Raj Goyle will spend a lot of his own money to try to defeat the GOP’s Mike Pompeo, a local businessman with a military career (he graduated first in his class at West Point) behind him. The Wichita newspaper, a McClatchy thing, has always been loyal to Goyle. Fortunately, fewer and fewer readers will notice.”

But for the Kansas statehouse, the picture is not as bright. He presents a message he received from an unnamed Kansas legislator, who wrote: “Overall though, I am very disappointed … we did not change the left-wing Republican margin in the House.”

Boyles concluded: “It’s true that the state senate and the house are both at the mercy of liberal Republicans. RINOs really do tear up the landscape.”

For results of statewide races and other state offices, click on 2010 unofficial primary election results at Kansas Secretary of State.

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Election eve Kansas poll

by Bob Weeks on August 3, 2010

in Politics

An election eve statewide poll in Kansas indicates a likely win for Jerry Moran for United States Senate. The first Congressional district remains a toss-up between Tim Huelskamp and Jim Barnett, and it looks like Mike Pompeo is in control in the fourth district. Kevin Yoder has a large lead in the third district.

In the first public poll for Kansas Secretary of State, Kris Kobach has a large lead, with over twice as much support as nearest rival Elizabeth Ensley.

This poll, conducted by The Singularis Group, LLC, was not commissioned by or paid for by any candidate or candidate committee. Here are the results:

954 Interviews of Likely GOP Primary Voters
All Interviews taken on Monday evening, August 2, 2010
95% Confidence Interval, Margin of Error +/- 3.1%

U.S. Senate
                        Congressional
                          Districts
               Statewide 1  2  3  4
Jerry Moran       44     72 38 40 19
Todd Tiahrt       37     21 32 37 63
Tom Little         3      2  4  3  2
Bob Londerholm     2      0  3  2  3
Undecided         15      5 24 18 14

Secretary of State
                        Congressional
                          Districts
               Statewide 1  2  3  4
Kris Kobach       38     30 39 50 32
J.R. Claeys       13     17 12  6 19
Elizabeth Ensley  17     13 24 24  8
Undecided         31     40 26 20 41

U.S. Congress, District 1
Tim Huelskamp      26%
Jim Barnett        25%
Tracey Mann        18%
Rob Wasinger        7%
Sue Boldra          5%
Marck Cobb          1%
Undecided          18%

U.S. Congress, District 3
Dan Gilyeat         2%
Dave King           0%
Patricia Lightner  28%
Jerry Malone        5%
Craig McPherson     2%
John Rysvavy        2%
Jean Ann Uvodich    4%
Kevin Yoder        40%
Undecided          17%

U.S. Congress, District 4
Paij Rutschman      6%
Wink Hartman       19%
Mike Pompeo        37%
Jean Schodorf      29%
Jim Anderson        3%
Undecided           6%

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Two Kansas Republicans — one running for re-election, the other for higher office — both claim to have led the way in cutting the Kansas state budget. These claims, however, are at odds with the facts and both candidates’ records.

Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf is a candidate for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas. A television advertisement states that she “led the effort in the Senate to cut over $1 billion from the state budget.”

In Kansas House District 83 in east Wichita, Jo Ann Pottorff is seeking re-election. In a Wichita Eagle advertisement, she made a similar claim to Schodorf, stating “I forced state government to live within its means by cutting $1 billion in excess spending and voting down attempts to grow government by more than $185 million.”

There are a few ways to look at these claims. First, both of these politicians have big-spending and big-taxing records. In any sort of legislative vote rating system that rewards fiscally conservative votes, these two women rank very low year after year. Both voted for the spending programs that grew Kansas spending so much over the last five years that cuts in the rate of growth were necessary this year.

But these “cuts” were not cuts in actual spending. They were cuts in planned spending. The budget that both candidates voted for this year increased state spending by $200 million over the past year.

By the way, both candidates voted to increase the statewide sales tax this year. They attempt to justify this vote by saying that if the state didn’t increase taxes, it would force local governments and school districts to increase property taxes.

That would be the case only if schools kept spending at current levels. There are plenty of things schools could have done to save money — including implementing school choice programs which save money — but neither of these candidates considered that politically feasible. Their generous campaign contributions from the school spending lobby may have helped form their thinking on this issue.

In the chart below, you can see that Pottorff has had a few years in which she earned respectable vote ratings. But Schodorf has not.

Voters who desire conservative candidates should not be fooled by the efforts of both Schodorf and Pottorff to portray themselves as fiscally conservative legislators. It may turn out that their constituents prefer their left-wing voting records, and it’s the right of voters to do so. But voters should understand the choice they’re faced with.

Kansas legislative vote ratings for Jo Ann Pottorff and Jean SchodorfKansas legislative vote ratings for Jo Ann Pottorff and Jean Schodorf

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Update: An election eve poll has been released. Click on Kansas election eve poll.

Final polls indicate a close race in the contest for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas. Two candidates, Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf, are virtually tied for the lead as the campaign enters its final few days.

The candidates for this nomination and their campaign websites are Wichita businessman Jim Anderson, Wichita businessman Wink Hartman, Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo, Latham engineer Paij Rutschman, and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf.

Schodorf campaign poll

Candidate Jean Schodorf has released a survey that shows her, again, in the lead. The poll was conducted on behalf of the Schodorf campaign on July 29th. It shows her in the lead with 30 of the vote, with Pompeo just behind and within the margin of sampling error, at 26 percent.

Hartman is in third place with 16 percent, and Anderson follows with seven percent. As in the past, Schodorf’s polls didn’t include Rutschman. 21 percent are undecided, which is again — as it has always been with Schodorf’s polls — much higher than produced by independent polls.

The news release accompanying this canvass didn’t give many details, but Schodorf’s past polls conducted by the same consulting firm have been live operator surveys of 400 voters. Likely primary voters are selected by using voter lists.

As with all polls produced on behalf of a candidate, we need to remember that surveys produced and released by campaigns are just that, and the results would probably not be released by a campaign if the results did not portray the candidate favorably.

Kansas fourth Congressional district poll resultsKansas fourth Congressional district poll results

State of the State KS poll

State of the State KS in conjunction with Fort Hays State University and its Docking Institute of Public Affairs has released a poll of the Kansas first and fourth Congressional districts. The results for the fourth district are at State of the State KS Poll: Schodorf And Pompeo Take Lead In Campaign For Congress in Fourth District.

In the poll, Schodorf leads with 22 percent, Pompeo has 19 percent, Hartman has 13 percent, Democrat Raj Goyle as 11 percent, Anderson with six percent, and 28 percent are undecided.

This poll differs from others in that Goyle, one of the two Democratic Party candidates, was included with the Republicans in the survey question.

This survey used a smaller sample size, and as a result the margin of sampling error is larger at eight percent.

Commentary on the results of this survey by Fort Hays University Political Science Professor Chapman Rackaway concluded: “In short, Pompeo and Schodorf seem to be the two strongest candidates with Hartman struggling to keep up after a very strong opening to his campaign. Pompeo has established himself as the candidate of choice for conservatives, regardless of what issue the respondent self-identifies on. Schodorf’s lead among women and moderates has put her ahead, only slightly.”

The State of the State KS survey asked many background questions, and they may be read at State of the State KS.

Averaging the Kansas fourth district polls

Taking the last three available polls (the two described above and the KWCH/SurveyUSA poll) we find a very close race between two candidates for this nomination. Pompeo and Schodorf lead with 25 percent, with Hartman at 17 percent and Anderson at nine percent. 18 percent are undecided.

Kansas fourth Congressional district poll results averagedKansas fourth Congressional district poll results averaged

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KWCH Television in Wichita and SurveyUSA have released a poll of candidates seeking the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas.

The survey shows support for Wichita businessman Jim Anderson and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf on the rise, while the numbers for Wichita businessman Wink Hartman continue to decline. The support for Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo also fell slightly, well within the poll’s level of sampling error.

The numbers have Pompeo leading with 31 percent, Schodorf with 24 percent, Hartman with 23 percent, Anderson with 13 percent, and Latham engineer Paij Rutschman at two percent.

Undecided voters are at six percent. The poll was conducted July 26th through 28th. The margin of sampling error is 3.5 percent.

Interestingly, this poll has Schodorf at the same level of support as shown in her own internal poll released earlier this week. Her poll, however, showed her in first place with 24 percent support, with Pompeo in second place at 21 percent. That difference is within the poll’s sampling error.

The Schodorf poll had 32 percent of voters as undecided, which is — and has been the case with all of Schodorf’s surveys — several times higher than the six percent undecided measured by SurveyUSA.

State of the State KS is working on a poll that should be released today or tomorrow. This will provide another independent measure of voter sentiment as election day — August 3rd — draws near.

Some voters have already voted. At yesterday’s meeting of the Sedgwick County Commission, Election Commissioner Bill Gale said that about 13,000 mail ballots have been sent to voters, with about half being returned already.

In the 2008 primary election, 36,724 ballots were cast in Sedgwick County. With 6,500 ballots already returned, this means that at least 17 percent of voters (assuming the same turnout as in 2008) have already voted.

For the fourth Kansas Congressional district, about 71 percent of the population is in Sedgwick County.

On the Democratic Party side of this race, it appears that the television advertisements appearing for Raj Goyle are working. He trailed in the last poll two weeks ago, but now leads opponent Robert Tillman 63 percent to 19 percent, with 18 percent undecided. Two weeks ago Tillman led Goyle 40 percent to 36 percent.

Kansas fourth Congressional district poll resultsKansas fourth Congressional district poll results

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Candidates for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas have filed campaign finance reports for the first two weeks of July and some last-minute reports since then.

The reports show Wichita businessman Wink Hartman continuing to self-finance his campaign, with $0 in outside contributions collected in July. His campaign continues to spend at a rapid pace.

The candidates for this nomination and their campaign websites are Wichita businessman Jim Anderson, Wichita businessman Wink Hartman, Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo, Latham engineer Paij Rutschman, and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf.

Here is a summary of FEC campaign finance reports for the first part of July 2010:

Kansas Fourth District Republican campaign finance reports,
July 1, 2010 through July 14, 2010

               Anderson  Hartman   Pompeo  Schodorf
Contributions    2,060         0   49,347    14,891
Candidate loans      0   289,537        0         0
Expenditures     2,240   427,872  207,830    23,172
Cash balance     4,049    40,958  286,032     8,823

Figures for Rutschman were not available at the FEC data site.

Figures that stand out in this report include zero dollars raised by the Hartman campaign from individual contributions. All money raised during this period came from the candidate himself.

Also, Hartman spent more than twice as much as the second-largest spender.

Pompeo has, by far, the largest cash balance as of July 14. Normally this would be a positive factor as the campaign proceeds to election day. Hartman’s smaller cash balance, however, has little of the normal meaning associated with it, as the candidate makes frequent contributions to his campaign as funds are required. This is characteristic of self-financed campaigns.

From the start of the election cycle through July 14, 2010, the numbers look like this:

Kansas Fourth District Republican campaign finance reports,
through July 14, 2010

              Anderson   Hartman   Pompeo Rutschman Schodorf
Contributions  38,924    141,949  935,087       80   50,338
Candidate loans 3,275  1,563,137        0   30,000   29,006
Expenditures   37,301  1,664,129  649,054   24,464   70,521

(Rutschman’s figures are through June 30, 2010)

In this table we see the largely self-financed Hartman campaign outspending all other candidates. His campaign has spent more than twice as much as all other campaigns together.

This still isn’t the entire story, as candidates are filing “48 hour notice” reports of last-minute contributions (expenditures are not included in these filings). Through July 28, 2010, here are the numbers:

           Anderson   Hartman  Pompeo
Total        5,100    348,500  35,700

(Schodorf and Rutschman have not filed any of these reports.)

In the case of Hartman, the total of $348,500 is all from the candidate himself. Overall, the Hartman campaign has raised $2,053,586, with 93 percent from candidate self-financing.

According to OpenSecrets.org, a project of the Center for Responsive Politics, the average amount spent by winning candidates in 2008 for the U.S. House of Representatives was $1,372,591. Hartman is well over this figure.

Each House district has roughly the same population, although the cost of running campaigns varies widely due to the differing characteristics of districts.

Self-financed candidates

As the Kansas fourth district has one candidate who is self-financed, let’s take a look at self-financed candidates and their characteristics.

In writing about political scientist Jennifer A. Steen and her book, Self-Financed Candidates in Congressional Elections (University of Michigan Press, 2006), Bruce Bartlett wrote this:

One of her findings is that the necessity of asking people for contributions is valuable to a candidate, especially inexperienced ones. She thinks this is mainly because self-financing keeps bad candidates from being weeded out of contention by a lack of contributions. But I think it also results because once people have given someone a campaign contribution they become invested in that candidate and are more willing to vote for him or her on Election Day and to work on his or her behalf.

Voters also resent candidates who appear to be trying to buy an election. Self-financed candidates may be independent of special interests, but they also often appear aloof from the concerns of average voters. Having to ask people for money forces a candidate to take their feedback, thus learning about their concerns directly rather than filtered through pollsters and consultants.

In her book, Steen writes: “They [self-financers] are also less likely to engage in what Richard Feuno calls ‘two-way’ campaigning, or interaction between the candidate and constituency, which thus entails some degree of learning and responsiveness on the candidates part.”

Perhaps as a result, self-financed candidates don’t have a very good track record of winning elections. Steen found that for competitive U.S. House of Representative districts, candidates who are “extreme self-financers” (Hartman falls in this category) won 37 percent of primary election contests. That winning percentage falls to 31 percent in general elections.

Voters are interested in what type of representative a candidate would make. Do self-financed candidates differ from other candidates once in office? Steen writes: “These differences do not recommend self-financers as representatives. They are quite unlike the vast majority of citizens, even citizens in more affluent districts, and they are less likely than non-self-financers to confront and engage the citizens they seek to represent.”

Self-financed candidates usually claim that since they have a source of campaign funds independent from the usual sources — which these candidates usually describe as “corrupt” or undesirable in some other sinister way — they can act in the best interests of all their constituents once in office. But Steen found differently: “However, once elected most self-financers assimilate very rapidly to the norms of fund-raising — only a small percentage continue to resist the charms of campaign contributors.”

Kansas fourth Congressional district campaign financeKansas fourth Congressional district campaign finance

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Hartman ad claims remain elusive

by Bob Weeks on July 28, 2010

in Politics

The claims made last week in a campaign advertisement by Wichita businessman Wink Hartman remain elusive and largely unproven.

Hartman is running for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas. The other candidates and their campaign websites are Wichita businessman Jim Anderson, Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo, Latham engineer Paij Rutschman, and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf.

Scott Paradise, the Hartman campaign manager, will not accommodate my request to view the documents that he says prove the allegations in the ad.

Paradise said he is “not happy” with some things I’ve written about Hartman. I don’t imagine he is, as I’ve written several articles critical of Hartman. But I offered to go to the campaign office and look at the documents and hear what the campaign had to say.

What voters are left with is a last-minute inflammatory charge made by Hartman against Pompeo without having evidence of the charges. We know this is true because the campaign wasn’t able to produce evidence immediately and had to wait for the accuser to supply documents. That evidence, when examined by two Wichita Eagle reporters, appeared to indicate that Thayer Aerospace, Pompeo’s company, made “late, and in some cases reduced, payments” to one of its suppliers.

The accuser says the company didn’t pay and drove him out of business and into bankruptcy. There’s a lot of distance between these two claims.

We also know that the Hartman campaign ran the ad without identifying the businessman, perhaps hoping that no one would be able to identify him and investigate his claims.

Florida issue miscast

At issue also has been Hartman’s residency. Critics say that by claiming a “homestead” property tax exemption on a home he owns in Florida, Hartman became a Florida — not Kansas — resident.

There’s also been discussion as to whether he filed income taxes as a Kansas or Florida resident. Hartman says he’s paid all his taxes in Kansas.

But voting is something over which there is no controversy. As first reported on this site, Hartman most recently voted in Florida. Both he and his wife voted in Florida’s general election and presidential preference primary election in 2008.

They didn’t register to vote in Kansas until July of last year.

Voting by mail is popular in Sedgwick County, with 36 percent of the ballots cast in the November 2008 general election cast by mail. It doesn’t cost anything more than a postage stamp and the desire to cast your vote where you feel your political home is.

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Schodorf poll shows her campaign in lead

by Bob Weeks on July 27, 2010

in Politics

Yesterday the campaign of Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf released a poll that shows her in the lead in the race for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas.

The candidates and their campaign websites are Wichita businessman Jim Anderson, Wichita businessman Wink Hartman, Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo, Latham engineer Paij Rutschman, and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf.

The poll was conducted on July 22, before the Wichita Eagle editorial board announced its endorsement of Schodorf. It shows her with 24 percent of the vote. Pompeo is in second place with 21 percent, Hartman in third with 16 percent, and Anderson with seven percent.

The question asked of voters, according to Schodorf, is “If the election for congress were today, would you be voting for Jean Schodorf, Jim Anderson, Mike Pompeo, or Wink Hartman”? Candidate names are rotated. The poll question does not included candidate Rutschman.

The 400 poll respondents were selected from those who had voted in the last two primary elections in the fourth district. The campaign says that “This number of interviews produces survey results that are accurate at the 95% level of confidence.” No margin of error was given for this confidence level, but in a conversation with Jim Yonally of Jayhawk Consulting Services, the firm that conducted the poll, he said the sampling error was four percentage points.

That means that Schodorf’s lead of three percentage points is within the margin of sampling error.

As with all polls produced on behalf of a candidate, we need to remember that surveys produced and released by campaigns are just that, and the results would probably not be released by a campaign if the results did not portray the candidate favorably.

Schodorf’s three publicly-released polls could not have turned out better for the candidate. Starting low, each poll has showed her increasing her numbers, until this poll shows her in the lead.

Besides being the first poll showing Schodorf in the lead, her campaign polls have always differed from the independent polls in showing a very high number of undecided voters. Yonally said he believes that his firm’s practice of using human operators to conduct the survey produces more accurate results than do automated polling systems.

The poll also indicates Pompeo’s support increasing, while Hartman’s drops.

KWCH Television will release an independent SurveyUSA poll of the fourth district this week, I am told.

Kansas fourth Congressional district poll resultsKansas fourth Congressional district poll results

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Wink Hartman ad a bust, disservice

by Bob Weeks on July 23, 2010

in Politics

On Tuesday the Wink Hartman campaign began running a television advertisement that contains claims about Mike Pompeo that, so far, are unsubstantiated. See Hartman ad malicious and false, says Pompeo and Pompeo Disputes Claims In Hartman Ads, Demands Hartman Show Evidence.

Hartman’s campaign manager said he would supply proof of the claims made in the ad by Daniel Lind, a Wichita businessman, by late Wednesday. As of Friday, little in the way of evidence has been provided. The Hartman staff says it is gathering documents and waiting for a bank to provide documents.

So what can we make of this advertisement, and more importantly, the candidate pacing the ad?

One thing we know for sure is that the Hartman campaign prepared and aired the ad without having evidence of the claims. If it had evidence, it should have been able to provide it immediately upon request.

Whether the claims turn out to be true or not, this unpreparedness we can be certain of. This is evidence of recklessness of Hartman, his campaign, and the people — including political consultant Axiom Strategies — involved in his election effort.

Axiom is a controversial political consulting firm. On its website, it boasts of news coverage of the campaigns it and its head, Jeff Roe, have run: “Controversial campaign tactics are the stuff of political legend,” “Known for his bare-knuckle campaign tactics,” “Political consultant plays hardball and scores big: The pugnacious campaign tactics…”

Further, these attack ads that are sprung on the voting public at the last moment are a public disservice. With little time to investigate the claims — and with the Hartman campaign dragging out the process — voters are understandably frustrated.

Additionally, the claim made in this advertisement has nothing to do with public policy. Even if it was true.

Recent ads placed by candidates for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas have been positive ads, with candidates talking about themselves and their plans if elected to Congress.

That’s true of all campaigns except the Hartman campaign. He continues to sling mud at the candidate he considers his chief rival. Voters ought to consider this when deciding whom to vote for.

Remember that political ads are now accompanied the statements of candidates that they approve the ads: “I’m Wink Hartman and I approve this ad.”

The candidates for this nomination and their campaign websites are Wichita businessman Jim Anderson, Wichita businessman Wink Hartman, Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo, Latham engineer Paij Rutschman, and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf.

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Hartman ad malicious and false, says Pompeo

July 21, 2010

The campaign for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas has been marked by some hard-hitting commercials. Often commercials are based on subjective claims, such as “Vote for me! I’m great and my opponent is terrible!”

Now the Wink Hartman campaign has aired a television advertisement that leading rival Mike Pompeo says is objectively false.

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Wink Hartman on bailouts, and his own

July 21, 2010

Wichita businessman Wink Hartman, a candidate for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansasis opposed to government bailouts. Strongly so.

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Schodorf poll indicates three-way tie in Kansas fourth Congressional district

July 19, 2010

Today the campaign of Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf released a poll that shows her in a three-way tie with Wichita businessmen Wink Hartman and Mike Pompeo in the race for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas.

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Kansas fourth district candidates on spending and deficit reduction

July 17, 2010

In a June 22nd forum of candidates for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas sponsored by the Wichita Metro Chamber of Commerce, candidates were asked about their plans to reduce the federal deficit and national debt.

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Kansas fourth district Congressional poll released, surprises within

July 15, 2010

KWCH Television in Wichita and SurveyUSA have released a poll of candidates seeking the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas. The poll, conducted July 11th through 13th, shows Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo maintaining a narrow lead over his chief rival, Wichita businessman Wink Hartman.

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DeGraaf releases endorsements for Kansas offices

July 15, 2010

Kansas State Representative Pete DeGraaf has released his personal endorsements for Kansas statewide races and for races around the Wichita area.

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Kansas fourth district poll shows Pompeo lead, Hartman drop

July 12, 2010

A new poll of candidates seeking the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas shows Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo maintaining a lead over his chief rival, Wichita businessman Wink Hartman.

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In Kansas, government spending is intertwined

July 11, 2010

While conservative political candidates talk of reducing spending, the reality is that federal government spending is so intertwined in our lives that spending reductions — much less actual cuts — are almost impossible to fathom.

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In Kansas, Club for Growth PAC taps Pompeo, Huelskamp

July 9, 2010

The Club for Growth is a national organization that advances prosperity and economic growth by promoting economic freedom and limited government. Each year it ranks federal lawmakers on how well they follow these principles on its scorecards. (For a look at how current Kansas Congressman and Senate hopefuls Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran ranked on the scorecard, see Club for Growth gives slight nod to Tiahrt over Moran.)

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Kansas Republican Assembly endorsements announced

July 7, 2010

The Kansas Republican Assembly has released its endorsements for federal and state offices. The list of endorsed candidates may be viewed here.

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The Hartman clean campaign pledge: Pompeo response

June 30, 2010

In the contest for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas, Wichita businessman Wink Hartman has ran many advertisements making an issue of a clean campaign pledge. He’s signed it, and says that leading rival Mike Pompeo won’t sign it.

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Schodorf poll shows closer Kansas fourth district contest

June 28, 2010

Last week’s poll concerning the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas showed Mike Pompeo making big gains to slightly overtake Wink Hartman, with Jean Schodorf and Jim Anderson far behind. A striking feature of that poll was the low number of undecided voters, just eight percent.

Now Schodorf has released a poll with results that, while producing the same ordering of candidates, show a much closer race with a large number of undecided voters.

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Earmarks and Kansas elections

June 28, 2010

The topic of earmarks is playing a role in contest for the Republican Party nomination for United States Senate from Kansas between Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran.

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Kansas fourth district Congressional poll shows big change, surprise

June 25, 2010

A just-released poll shows that the race for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas has changed dramatically since the last poll in February.

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Kansas fourth district Congressional candidates answer individual questions

June 21, 2010

Last week’s forum of candidates for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas featured a set of questions tailored individually for each of the four candidates who participated.

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In Kansas, some campaigns for Congress face charges of hypocrisy

June 20, 2010

I have been active in the Kansas Tea Party Movement since March of 2009. The basic tenants of it are attractive to me. The emphasis on freedom, liberty, personal responsibility, and love of the Constitution is inspiring. The tea party movement is supposed to be “a new politics” — one of honesty, integrity, and a return to traditional values.

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Hartman state tax issue still a little bit murky

June 18, 2010

At Wednesday’s forum of candidates for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas, the issue of candidate Wink Hartman and his residency arose. The discussion, however, didn’t lead to much new information about the issue.

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Kansas fourth district Congressional candidate forum

June 17, 2010

Last night the candidates for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas squared off in a ninety-minute forum at the Orpheum Theater in downtown Wichita.

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Schodorf – Goyle race might feature reversed roles

June 14, 2010

If Jean Schodorf captures the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas, the general election contest against likely Democratic Party nominee Raj Goyle might feature a reversal of commonly-held roles.

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Kansas fourth district Congressional candidates to debate

June 11, 2010

On Wednesday June 16th the candidates for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas will debate.

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Hartman, candidate for Congress from Kansas, recently voted in Florida

June 10, 2010

Wink Hartman, a Wichita businessman and candidate for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas, has recently voted in Florida, records indicate.

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In Kansas fourth district, debates reveal differences

June 3, 2010

In this article, Wendy Aylworth of Wichita takes a look at candidates for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas and their responses to questions at several candidate forums. In particular, she examines the candidates and their attitudes towards free trade.

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Raj Goyle attacked from left

May 25, 2010

In the Kansas legislature this session, Raj Goyle, a Wichita Democrat who is a candidate for that party’s nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas made a few votes that were out of character for him, based on his past record.

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Pompeo story needs correction, analysis

May 24, 2010

A Wichita Eagle news story concerning a candidate for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas has sparked controversy for its reporting of some factual issues, and also for its coverage of the politics surrounding the campaign.

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Schodorf to address Pachyderms

May 19, 2010

This Friday Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf will address members and guests of the Wichita Pachyderm club. Schodorf is also a candidate for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas, along with Jim Anderson, Mike Pompeo, and Wink Hartman. Raj Goyle and Robert Tillman are candidates for the Democratic Party nomination.

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Kansas Economic Freedom Index updated

May 18, 2010

Now that the 2010 session of the Kansas Legislature is over (except for a largely ceremonial final day) and the important votes have been cast, I’ve updated the Kansas Economic Freedom Index.

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