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Kansas fourth district Congressional poll shows big change, surprise

Updated and expanded since last night’s story.

A just-released poll shows that the race for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas has changed dramatically since the last poll in February.

The February poll showed Wichita businessman Wink Hartman with a large lead over Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo, Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf, and Kansas Senator Dick Kelsey, who has since withdrawn due to family health problems. Wichita businessman Jim Anderson was further behind.

Now Pompeo has edged Hartman slightly, polling 39 percent to Hartman’s 37 percent. These two candidates have separated themselves from the rest of the field and are in a virtual tie, as the margin separating the two is well within the poll’s margin of sampling error of 4.1 percent.

The poll indicates that only eight percent of voters are undecided, a low number compared to other Kansas polls. In a poll conducted at the same time for the Kansas first district Republican nomination, 16 percent are undecided. In a May poll for the Kansas Republican Party nomination for United States Senate, 15 percent were undecided.

This low number of undecided voters is not good news for the Anderson and Schodorf campaigns, as both have a lot of ground to make up in a short time to catch the two leaders. The primary election is August 3rd, with advance ballots starting to be mailed on July 14th. The deadline for registering to vote or changing party affiliation is July 19th.

Some interesting results from the pool include these observations:

For voters self-identified as “conservative,” Pompeo leads Hartman 41 percent to 40 percent. For “liberal” voters it was Pompeo over Hartman by 33 percent to 20 percent. Schodorf, who is set off from the other candidates by her moderate voting record and positions, could garner only 18 percent of these self-identified liberal voters. 20 percent were undecided.

Among women, Schodorf increases her vote from nine percent to 11 percent. In this category, Hartman leads Pompeo 37 percent to 35 percent.

For voters who have a favorable opinion of the tea party movement, Pompeo outpolled Hartman 42 percent to 39 percent. Anderson, who has described himself as the tea party candidate, trailed with seven percent.

Pompeo edged Hartman among pro-life voters and gun owners by three and four percentage points respectively.

A question this poll can’t answer is whether Pompeo’s upward trajectory is likely to continue. The Hartman campaign started advertising on television early, which surely contributed to his lead in the February poll. By the time of that poll, it was estimated by one source that he had spent over $200,000 on television advertising.

The Pompeo campaign has not lacked for money. Campaign finance reports for March 31 showed that it had raised $606,274 and had $432,611 on hand. (At that time the Hartman campaign had spent $307,871.) If the Pompeo campaign’s strategy was to conserve funds and wait until closer to the election to start television advertising, the strategy appears to be working.

It has been thought that the best chance for a Schodorf victory was for her to take advantage of the two characteristics that separate her from the other candidates — her gender and her moderate or liberal positions. (The recent entry of Paij Rutschman in the race provides another alternative for voters wanting to vote for a female candidate, but Rutschman polled only one percent.)

But with Schodorf barely increasing her total among woman voters, and trailing both Hartman and Pompeo among self-described liberal voters, it appears that this strategy is not working.

A surprise in this poll is on the Democratic side. In this contest Raj Goyle has been presumed to be the sure victor, as his campaign has raised, by now, surely over one million dollars and is receiving national attention. His opponent, Robert Tillman (no website can be found), is running for office for the first time. He hadn’t filed any campaign finance reports as of the end of March, presumably because he had raised little or no money.

But the poll shows Goyle with only 42 percent of the vote, and Tillman with 32 percent. 26 percent are undecided. This is an unexpectedly close result.

The candidates for the Republican Party nomination (and their campaign websites) are Wichita businessman Jim Anderson, Wichita businessman Wink Hartman, Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo, Latham engineer Paij Rutschman, and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf.

Kansas fourth Congressional district poll results
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11 Comments

  1. business advocate June 25, 2010

    It is worrisome that the Republicans would support Pompeo who is a slightly more moderate than Hartman because Goyle is much more moderate. It is also worrisome that if Pompeo is elected he is VERY supported by the “establishment” which is what most of us are fighting against, and sick to death of.

  2. business advocate June 25, 2010

    If Hartman gets past his residency issue his numbers will recover. I do not have an opinion on who is the best man.
    Mike is a great guy that has the skills to succeed in politics.
    It is unfortunate that this is the year we all want a “hard line”in the sand. someone who will stand firm and not compromise. Which are not good skills for a democratic political system. Wink has his positive side if a PAC or lobbyist offers him $10,000 for his campaign it means nothing to a man worth $100 million. He may be able to draw that line in the sand.

  3. PinkElephant June 25, 2010

    Pompeo is certainly much more conservative than Hartman. He tries to hide it, but anyone in the Wichita pro-life circles knows that Hartman has not been a pro-life advocate (I have some friends that insist that he is pro-choice and has said he will back off the pro-life “thing” if he wins and runs in the general.) Pompeo on the other hand has given to pro-life groups in the past and has won the endorsement of KFL. This says “CONSERVATIVE” much more loudly than Hartmans lackluster ads. My vote is for the conservative Mike Pompeo.

  4. Memoryman June 25, 2010

    I remember Wink Hartman stating in a letter to editor in the eagle that he had been divorced and had a DUI at the beginning of this campaign. What he left out was the fact that he was driving a car with a Florida tag and with a Florida drivers license when he was arrested in Sedgwick County.

    When you add this to the fact that he voted in Florida in 2008, this is not the background that I would want for my congressman. I do believe that Wink would be better than either of the liberal Democrats seeking the socialist political party’s nomination here in KS. However, since I can vote in the GOP primary, I will be voting for someone who is not a “lifelong Kansan” who voted in Florida in 2008.

    If you can’t even get your state right, you shouldn’t even be running for precinct committeeman.

    If by some miracle, Wink gets by the primary election, he will be destroyed by Goyle and the liberal Kansas press. The Wichita Eagle and the rest of the news media will cut him up like a piece of brisket at a BBQ restaurant.

  5. sue c. June 25, 2010

    I am truly surprised, also, that the “undecideds” are so low. People have coalesced behind their candidate, it seems.

    Hartman, with his millions, and his phone call blitzes and frequent TV ads, has gotten his name out there first. And he can because he is so flush with cash.

    Pompeo has shown an amazing surge in support in this poll. His message is appealing, and people are realizing he is a solid choice. Having someone with his business acumen and military background is just what Kansas needs to send to DC.

    If elected he will be able to step up to the plate and sponsor legislation immediately to help us repeal, or at least defund, the massive takeover of our freedoms that we are facing from the out-of-control DC kleptocrats, currently in power.

  6. Mike June 25, 2010

    Hi, I don’t really see how a thinking person can get all that upset where a guy who built an arena, a restaurant chain (Jimmy’s Egg), and other businesses in KS can get all that upset. Maybe Kansas has enough non-thinking voters. I know Paij Rutschmann and she’s a decent classy lady. I don’t know if she’s mean enough to be in Congress though.

    Later

    Mike

  7. Ann H. June 25, 2010

    While I’m overjoyed that Schodorf is in the single digits, I’m bummed that Anderson is SO far behind. I thought he had more support than that. I still plan to vote for him (as of right now), but I guess it looks like the best possible realistic outcome is for Pompeo to win. Hopefully he will be able to defeat Goyle. There are already 2 Goyle signs in my neighborhood. He is very popular here in his district.

  8. Mike June 28, 2010

    Hi, while Goyle DID vote more conservatively than Schordorf, he’s STILL A DEMOCRAT. If he were elected to office, Pelosi would see to it that he votes with the demoocrats. Doing that might shorten his political career, but it hasn’t in other conservative districts. When I lived in Huntsville AL, our local congressman voted for the Brady Bill. The next election cycle he won, but by less than 0.1% against Wayne Parker who had just moved to the area from Texas where his Daddy was a Republican Congressman.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bud_Cramer

    Later

    Mike

  9. Anonymous July 9, 2010

    I called KWCH about the survey USA poll, they said that 2500 registered voters were polled but data was only pulled from the 607 respondents they deemed as “likely” voters. They did not know what criteria was used to deem them “likely”. Talk to the insiders on the other campaigns, they’ll tell you the internal polling has the undecideds are at 40% – this is anybody’s game right now, so vote your conscience.

    I’m voting for “Mr. Smith goes to Washington” because I believe he is the only one who can beat Goyle. A Pompeo vs. Goyle match up will be a disaster for conservatives.

  10. Mark Young July 22, 2010

    I don’t understand why anybody would even consider any but Jim Anderson he is the candidate that we have all been looking for ! A supporter of the Fair Tax ,Term Limits ,Secure the Border if you haven’t checked out his web site do it before its to late!!! VOTE JIM ANDERSON FOR CONGRESS!!!!

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