Tag: Tim Huelskamp

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Wednesday May 25, 2011

    The failure of American schools. The Atlantic: “Who better to lead an educational revolution than Joel Klein, the prosecutor who took on the software giant Microsoft? But in his eight years as chancellor of New York City’s school system, the nation’s largest, Klein learned a few painful lessons of his own — about feckless politicians, recalcitrant unions, mediocre teachers, and other enduring obstacles to school reform.” Key takeway idea: “As a result, even when making a lifetime tenure commitment, under New York law you could not consider a teacher’s impact on student learning. That Kafkaesque outcome demonstrates precisely the way the system is run: for the adults. The school system doesn’t want to change, because it serves the needs of the adult stakeholders quite well, both politically and financially.” … Also: “Accountability, in most industries or professions, usually takes two forms. First and foremost, markets impose accountability: if people don’t choose the goods or services you’re offering, you go out of business. Second, high-performing companies develop internal accountability requirements keyed to market-based demands. Public education lacks both kinds of accountability. It is essentially a government-run monopoly. Whether a school does well or poorly, it will get the students it needs to stay in business, because most kids have no other choice. And that, in turn, creates no incentive for better performance, greater efficiency, or more innovation — all things as necessary in public education as they are in any other field.” … Overall, an eye-opening indictment of American public schools.

    Professors to Koch Brothers: Take your green back. In The Wall Street Journal Donald Luskin takes a look at what should be a non-controversy: A gift by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation to Florida State University to endow a program to study the foundations of prosperity, social progress, and human well-being — at the Stavros Center for the Advancement of Free Enterprise and Economic Education. (Sounds like a good match.) Writes Luskin: “Then there’s the donors. One of the donors, according to the two professors, is known for his ‘efforts to influence public policy, elections, taxes, environmental issues, unions, regulations, etc.’ Whom might they be referring to? Certainly not George Soros — there’s never an objection to that billionaire’s donations, which always tend toward the political left. No, it’s Charles and David Koch, owners of Koch Industries.” … Critics say the gift is an assault on academic freedom. Luskin counters: “The issue at FSU isn’t that the university has bargained away its academic freedom. The problem is that FSU has exercised its academic freedom in a way that the political left disapproves of. As [FSU College of Social Sciences] Mr. Rasmussen put it to the St. Petersburg Times: ‘If somebody says, ‘We’re willing to help support your students and faculty by giving you money, but we’d like you to read this book,’ that doesn’t strike me as a big sin. What is a big sin is saying that certain ideas cannot be discussed.”

    History and legacy of Kansas populism. Recently Friends University Associate Professor of Political Science Russell Arben Fox delivered a lecture to the Wichita Pachyderm Club that was well-received by members. Now Fox has made his presentation available on his blog In Media Res. It’s titled The History and Legacy of Kansas Populism. Thank you to Professor Fox for this effort, and also to Pachyderm Club Vice President John Todd, who arranges the many excellent programs like this that are characteristic of the club.

    Federal grants seen to raise future local spending. “Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program.” — Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman (The Yale Book of Quotations, 2006) Is this true? Do federal grants cause state and/or local tax increases in the future after the government grant ends? Economists Russell S. Sobel and George R. Crowley examine the evidence and find the answer is yes. The conclusion to their research paper Do Intergovernmental Grants Create Ratchets in State and Local Taxes? Testing the Friedman-Sanford Hypothesis states: “Our results clearly demonstrate that grant funding to state and local governments results in higher own source revenue and taxes in the future to support the programs initiated with the federal grant monies. Our results are consistent with Friedman’s quote regarding the permanence of temporary government programs started through grant funding, as well as South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford’s reasoning for trying to deny some federal stimulus monies for his state due to the future tax implications. Most importantly, our results suggest that the recent large increase in federal grants to state and local governments that has occurred as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) will have significant future tax implications at the state and local level as these governments raise revenue to continue these newly funded programs into the future. Federal grants to state and local governments have risen from $461 billion in 2008 to $654 billion in 2010. Based on our estimates, future state taxes will rise by between 33 and 42 cents for every dollar in federal grants states received today, while local revenues will rise by between 23 and 46 cents for every dollar in federal (or state) grants received today. Using our estimates, this increase of $200 billion in federal grants will eventually result in roughly $80 billion in future state and local tax and own source revenue increases. This suggests the true cost of fiscal stimulus is underestimated when the costs of future state and local tax increases are overlooked.” … An introduction to the paper is here.

    Debt observed as sold. New U.S. Representative Tim Huelskamp, who represents the Kansas first district, recently observed the Bureau of Public Debt electronically sell debt obligations of the United States of America. In a press release, the Congressman said: “In a matter of minutes, I observed the United States sell $30.4 billion more in debt. The ease with which this transaction was done reminded me that it is just too simple for Washington to acquire, buy, sell and trade debt.” As to the upcoming decision as to whether to raise the ability of the U.S. to borrow: “As Congress considers yet another increase in the debt limit, the only responsible option that exists is to put America on a path to fiscal responsibility with clear limits on spending. Democrats say they want a debt limit increase that is ‘clean’ without any of the budget cuts we have proposed. Yet, they have offered no plan to eliminate annual trillion-dollar deficits. There is nothing ‘clean’ about increasing the limit without tackling the massive deficits and ever-increasing debt. … With nearly one-half of the nation’s debt held by foreign countries, including more than $1.1 trillion by China, our national security is threatened as well. Too many of our freedoms and liberties are threatened when Americans owe trillions of dollars to nations who put their interests before ours.”

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Monday April 25, 2011

    American exceptionalism. This Friday (April 29) the Wichita Pachyderm Club features Kenneth N. Ciboski, Ph.D, Associate Professor of Political Science at Wichita State University. He will speak on the topic “American Exceptionalism: How and Why Are We Different From Europe?” The public is welcome and encouraged to attend Wichita Pachyderm meetings. For more information click on Wichita Pachyderm Club. … Upcoming speakers: On May 6, Dr. Malcolm C. Harris, Sr., Professor of Finance, Friends University on the topic “Shale gas: Our energy future?” On May 13, Craig Burns and Glenn Edwards of Security 1st Title Co. on the topic “Real Estate Transactions, Ownership, Title, and Tales From the Trenches.” On May 20, Rob Siedleckie, Secretary, Kansas Social Rehabilitation Services (SRS) on the topic “The SRS and Initiatives.” On May 27, Todd Tiahrt, Former 4th District Congressman on the topic “Outsourcing our National Security — How the Pentagon is Working Against Us”.

    Wichita City Council this week. As this week is the fourth Tuesday of the month, the Wichita City Council considers only consent agenda items. This agenda has two acquisition of property by eminent domain, one for improvements to East 13th Street, and another for land involved in the aquifer recharge project in Harvey County. … There will also be council member appointments, and with three new council members on board, there could be a number of these. … A workshop will follow to present updates to the downtown Wichita public incentive policy. A Wichita Eagle story reported on this, but raised more confusion than answers. For example, the story reports the proposal will include “A private-to-public capital investment ration [sic] of 2-to-1.” This differs from the Goody Clancy plan for downtown Wichita, which calls for a five to one ratio.

    The Great American Bailout. Tim Huelskamp, a new member of the United States Congress from the Kansas first district, warns of the seriousness of the problem the country faces with the budget and debt: “This past Monday, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) announced that it was cutting its outlook on the U.S. from “stable” to “negative,” increasing the likelihood of a potential downgrade of America’s credit rating. This should be a dire wake-up call to Washington that the time is now to address federal red ink. For all of America’s greatness, it is embarrassing that the United States may become a credit risk.” He details the rising amount of national debt, and also the increasing percentage that is held by foreign countries. … Soon we will be faced with the decision to raise our national debt limit. Huelskamp says the only way he could support increasing the ceiling is there is also a “serious and meaningful compromise that makes substantial and real cuts to the deficit and debt.” He also supports a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution.

    “Not yours to give rally” in Topeka. Next Thursday (April 28) a coalition of groups is holding a rally at the Kansas Capitol building. The event starts at 10:00 am and lasts until 2:00 pm. The lineup of speakers and topics includes Rep. Charlotte O’Hara: “Federal control of the state through the state budget,” Larry Halloran (Wichita South Central 9-12 Group): “Government Charity, the Constitution and the Rule of Law,” Dave Trabert (Kansas Policy Institute): “Kansas Budget Policy and Spending Habits,” Rep. Kasha Kelley: “House Budget,” Richard D. Fry (Patriots Coalition ): “Govt. Lawlessness and Implementing Obama Care,”Angelo Mino (Born in Ecuador – MADE in America): “Reason to Become a New Born American,” Derrick Sontag (Americans for Prosperity): “History of a Growing Kansas Budget,” and Rep. Lance Kinzer: “Court of Appeals Legislation.” … AFP is sponsoring a free bus trip from Wichita for this event. The bus will leave Wichita at 7:00 am, and should be back by 6:00 pm. The bus trip is free but reservations are required. For more information on the bus trip contact John Todd at john@johntodd.net or 316-312-7335, or Susan Estes, AFP Field Director at sestes@afphq.org or 316-681-4415.

    Kansas Bioscience Authority benefits from exemptions. The Kansas Bioscience Authority has benefited from exceptions to the Kansas Open Records Act written for its own benefit. Kansas Watchdog reports.

    The presidency in liberal society. Eighteen months before the election, presidential politics consumes a lot of energy. Conservatives complain that President Obama is already in full campaign mode. Liberals poke fun at Republicans for, well, for a lot of reasons. But with a properly limited government, we should care very little who is our president. Lew Rockwell explains in this excerpt from a speech titled “An American Classical Liberalism”: Every four years, as the November presidential election draws near, I have the same daydream: that I don’t know or care who the president of the United States is. More importantly, I don’t need to know or care. I don’t have to vote or even pay attention to debates. I can ignore all campaign commercials. There are no high stakes for my family or my country. My liberty and property are so secure that, frankly, it doesn’t matter who wins. I don’t even need to know his name. In my daydream, the president is mostly a figurehead and a symbol, almost invisible to myself and my community. He has no public wealth at his disposal. He administers no regulatory departments. He cannot tax us, send our children into foreign wars, pass out welfare to the rich or the poor, appoint judges to take away our rights of self-government, control a central bank that inflates the money supply and brings on the business cycle, or change the laws willy-nilly according to the special interests he likes or seeks to punish. His job is simply to oversee a tiny government with virtually no power except to arbitrate disputes among the states, which are the primary governmental units. He is head of state, though never head of government. His position, in fact, is one of constant subordination to the office holders around him and the thousands of statesmen on the state and local level. He adheres to a strict rule of law and is always aware that anytime he transgresses by trying to expand his power, he will be impeached as a criminal.

  • Kansas’ Huelskamp leads in the House

    By Russ Vought. From RedState.com.

    Yesterday, Heritage Action for America (my employer), Club for Growth, and Family Research Council released a joint statement announcing their opposition to the three-week continuing resolution on floor of the House of Representatives next week, and their decision to “key vote” the extension on their respective scorecards. In doing so, they joined Mark Levin, Erick Erickson, and others, who are calling for conservatives to step up and lead by blocking this legislation.

    Freshman Rep. Tim Huelskamp of Kansas just answered that call. In a bold statement late last night, Huelskamp announced his opposition to the short-term resolution:

    We were elected to make bold changes to federal spending and to reverse our unsustainable deficits. … By allowing President Obama and Senator Reid to stall a budget they should have completed 6 months ago, we are being distracted from even bigger tasks: tackling the $1.1 trillion deficit in the President’s reckless 2012 budget and negotiating real budget reform, such as a balanced budget amendment, within a debt ceiling debate.

    Additionally, this CR omits many of the priorities the American people demanded we pass in H.R. 1: stopping job-killing EPA regulations, defunding Obamacare, and denying taxpayer funding of Planned Parenthood and abortion. By allowing continued funding of these liberal priorities, we are ignoring the mandate of the American people.

    Quite frankly, this is a stunning display of leadership by any member, let alone a freshman. Declaring your opposition publicly this quickly both plants a flag and ensures that you have less of a chance of being picked off in the days ahead. It reminds me of when Pat Toomey got out early to rally his colleagues against the Medicare prescription drug bill, and when Mike Pence sent out an early release to do the same against TARP.

    This is how you lead in the House of Representatives, and Huelskamp deserves a ton of credit for showing how it’s done in his first few months. Let’s see who joins him.

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Wednesday March 2, 2011

    Duplication in federal programs found. Washington Examiner Editorial: “Nobody with even minimal knowledge of how public bureaucracies work should be surprised by the Government Accountability Office’s conclusion that there is a ‘staggering level of duplication’ in the federal government. Duplication is inevitable when professional politicians in both major parties go for decades using tax dollars to buy votes among favored constituencies, and reward friends, former staffers, family members and campaign contributors with heaping helpings from the pork barrel. With the inevitable program duplication also comes an endless supply of official duplicity as presidents, senators and representatives rationalize spending billions of tax dollars on programs they know either don’t work as promised, or that perform the same or similar functions as existing efforts and are therefore redundant.” … And they say it’s tough to cut spending.

    Public school town hall meetings. Walt Chappell, Kansas State Board of Education member, is holding two public meetings in Wichita this week. Chappell writes: “You are cordially invited to share your top 4 priorities for what Kansas K-12 students should learn at a Town Hall meeting this week. Your Kansas State Board of Education is deciding how to improve our schools at a Board retreat on March 7th. As your elected representative on the KSBOE, I look forward to hearing your suggestions before we vote.” The first meeting is Thursday March 3rd from 6:30 pm to 8:30 pm at Lionel D. Alford Library located at 3447 S. Meridian (just north of I-235). A second meeting will be on Saturday March 5th from 2:30 pm to 4:30 pm at Westlink Public Library, 8515 W. Bekemeyer, just North of Central and Tyler.

    Wichita school board candidates. This Friday (March 4th) the Wichita Pachyderm Club features candidates for the board of USD 259, the Wichita public school district. For the at-large seat, the candidates are Sheril Logan, Carly Miller, and Phil Neff. For district 4, the candidates are Michael Ackerman, Jr., Jeff Davis, and Clayton Houston. The public is welcome and encouraged to attend Wichita Pachyderm meetings. For more information click on Wichita Pachyderm Club.

    Bureaucrats can’t change the way we drive … but they keep trying. More from the Washington Examiner, this time by Fred Barnes. “For most Americans — make that most of mankind — the car is an instrument of mobility, flexibility and speed. Yet officials in Washington, transportation experts, state and local functionaries, planners and transit officials are puzzled why their efforts to lure people from their cars continue to fail.” While Barnes writes mostly about automobiles vs. transit from a nationwide perspective, the issue is important here in Wichita. The revitalization of downtown Wichita contains a large dose of public transit as a way for people to get around downtown. It’s also likely that various streets will be restructured to make them less friendly to automobiles. .. More broadly, a major reason for some to support public funding of downtown is their hatred of “sprawl” and its reliance on the automobile, despite that being the lifestyle that large numbers of Wichitans prefer. They see this as something that government needs to correct.

    Wednesdays in Wiedemann tonight. Today (March 2) Wichita State University’s Lynne Davis presents an organ recital as part of the “Wednesdays in Wiedemann” series. These recitals, which have no admission charge, start at 5:30 pm and last about 30 minutes. … Today is an all-Bach program, and Davis writes: “This is music for the soul, music for when the weather isn’t quite what it needs to be, music to heal our coughs and colds, music to meditate by — however this grand yet simple composer speaks to you.” … The location is Wiedemann Recital Hall (map) on the campus of Wichita State University. For more about Davis and WSU’s Great Marcussen Organ, see my story from earlier this year.

    Americans for Prosperity website attacked. The website of Americans for Prosperity has been attacked by a group that disagrees with AFP’s position on issues. AFP President Tim Phillips issued a statement: “Americans for Prosperity has established itself as a leading voice in one of the great political debates underway in this country over government spending and how best to restore the fiscal solvency of governments at both the state and federal level. Yesterday, a group claimed credit for an attempt to silence our voice and to stifle that debate through an illegal attack on our website. While the political debate over government spending can be heated, we hope that even our opponents will join us in condemning this illegal attack on our free speech rights as unacceptable and irredeemable. Our country cannot meet the great challenges before us if we cannot have a free and open discussion about the threats that we face. Americans for Prosperity will not be intimidated and will not be deterred from our effort to support responsible economic policies, including the efforts of Governor Walker and other democratically elected leaders in that state to balance the budget through common-sense reforms.” … While I agree with Phillips that free and open discussion is necessary to resolve the issues we face, the disruption of AFP’s website is really more a property rights issue than a speech issue.

    Kansas presidential primary pitched as economic development. Washburn University political science professor Bob Beatty: “Why the dash by states to be early on the [presidential primary] calendar? The first is political power and ego. Early primary and caucus states merit attention from the presidential candidates to party big-wigs and power brokers within these early states. But a second reason has rapidly risen in prominence: The economic impact that candidate visits and media coverage of same brings a state. One economist has argued that the economic impact of the Iowa caucuses on the Iowa economy in 2004 was in the neighborhood of $50-$60 million. Other states want a piece of that action.” The complete editorial is Insight Kansas Editorial: Creative Thinking About 2012 GOP Presidential Caucus Can Benefit State.

    Huelskamp joins Tea Party Caucus. Tim Huelskamp, a new member of the United States Congress from the Kansas first district, has joined the Congressional Tea Party Caucus headed by Michele Bachmann. The two other new members of the House of Representatives from Kansas have not joined.

    How government works. The myth of George W. Bush as a small-government conservative, hiding information from the press and public, and the revolving door between government and lobbying. From Rollback: Repealing Big Government Before the Coming Fiscal Collapse by Thomas E. Woods, Jr. “Of the $96.5 trillion in unfunded Medicare liabilities, $19.4 trillion was added by the ‘small government’ George W. Bush administration’s prescription drug benefit, known as Medicare Part D. The story of that bill’s passage is the story of America in the twenty-first century. The White House did not want to risk the bill’s passage by letting accurate estimates of its cost leak out. Richard Foster, Medicare’s chief actuary, reported that its administrator, Bush appointee Thomas Scully, threatened him with his job if he revealed cost estimates to Congress — a claim that email correspondence from a Scully subordinate appeared to corroborate. The pharmaceutical industry was thrilled with the bill, which would yield perhaps an additional $100 billion in industry profits over the next eight years. Ten days after the bill’s passage, Scully left to join a lobbying firm and represented several large pharmaceutical companies. The bill’s principal author, Billy Tauzin, went on to head the drug companies’ main lobbying organization, a position that paid $2.5 million per year.”

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Sunday November 7, 2010

    Wichita City Council this week. Spirit AeroSystems asks for $7.5 million in Industrial Revenue Bonds (IRB). IRBs are not loans made by the city. In fact, in this case the bonds will be purchased by Spirit itself, says the agenda report: “Spirit AeroSystems, Inc. intends to purchase the bonds itself, through direct placement, and the bonds will not be reoffered for sale to the public.” The reason for the bonds is the property tax exemption on property purchased with the bond proceeds. Additionally, Spirit may not have to pay sales tax on the purchases. This is a public hearing designed to solicit citizen input on this matter. … Then POET Ethanol, Inc. asks for an additional five years of property tax exemption. Five years ago POET — then known as Ethanol Products, LLC — received a “five-plus-five-year” exemption, meaning that exemptions were granted for five years, with a review to take place to see if the company met the goals it agreed to as a condition of receiving the exemption. At this five year review, city staff says POET has met the goals and recommends that the property tax exemptions be granted for another five years. … The Finance Department will also present a quarterly financial report. The agenda and accompanying material is at Wichita City Council Meeting, November 9, 2010.

    The election means something. “Elections have consequences,” writes Burdett Loomis, professor of Political Science at the University of Kansas in an Insight Kansas editorial available at State of the State KS. He writes: “The broad and deep GOP set of victories means that conservatives have the opportunity to put forward an agenda of social, fiscal, and tax issues that have been built up over the past two decades. Unquestionably, many of those items will quickly find their way into law.” But Loomis thinks things are pretty good already in Kansas: “In general, things may need some tinkering, but there’s very little that’s broken in Kansas. Governor Brownback should understand his power, and the need to act responsibly as he works on behalf of all Kansans to better their health, education, and quality of life.”

    Wichita Eagle publisher at Pachyderm. This week’s meeting (November 12) meeting of the Wichita Pachyderm Club features as the presenter William “Skip” Hidlay, President and Publisher of The Wichita Eagle. His topic will be “The Eagle’s transformation in the digital age.” Hidlay is new to Wichita, having started at the Eagle in March after working at newspapers in New Jersey. The public is welcome at Wichita Pachyderm meetings. For more information click on Wichita Pachyderm Club.

    Property rights experiment to be conducted. This Monday Americans for Prosperity, Wichita Chapter, presents “I, City: An Exercise.” Presenters will be John Todd and Susan Estes. Todd says: “You are invited to participate in an experimental exercise involving private property rights, and experience the impact of taxes, regulations, and economic incentive programs mandated by government on those property rights.” Todd says that suggested reading prior to the meeting is “I, Pencil” an essay by Leonard E. Read of the Foundation For Economic Education. You may click here to read this short essay. This event is on Monday November 8, from 7:00 pm to 8:30 pm, at the Lionel D. Alford Library located at 3447 S. Meridian in Wichita. The library is just north of the I-235 exit on Meridian. For more information on this event contact John Todd at john@johntodd.net or 316-312-7335, or Susan Estes, AFP Field Director at sestes@afphq.org or 316-681-4415.

    Kansas taxes in perspective. Governor elect Sam Brownback wants to take a look at the tax structure in Kansas. Possible actions could include eliminating the corporate income tax. Context: The one cent per dollar increase in the statewide sales tax is expected to bring in an additional $300 million per year. According to the Kansas Legislature Briefing Book, in fiscal year 2009 the corporate income tax brought in $294.2 million, just about the same as the increase in the sales tax. Personal income taxes brought in $2,755.3 million. Excise taxes — sales and compensating use taxes, alcohol and cigarette taxes, and severance taxes — brought in $2,286.7 million.

    Huelskamp to Washington. Mark Reagan of the Dodge City Daily Globe interviews Tim Huelskamp, the new congressman for the first district of Kansas. Some of the matters Huelskamp has to deal with include orientation, hiring a staff in Washington and in the home district, his hope to serve on the agriculture committee, and voting for leadership. He notes that the federal government has been borrowing 37 cents of each dollar it spends. … Tim and his wife Angela have four young children, all adopted, some from Haiti. I would imagine a big decision he has to make is whether to travel home each weekend — as did predecessor Jerry Moran — or move his family to Washington. It’s not a quick and simple matter to travel from Washington to his home in Fowler. It usually takes about six hours to fly from Washington to Wichita, and then another three hours to drive to Fowler. That’s a lot of time spent traveling, and most of it is idle, wasted time. … I’ve observed Huelskamp in several debates on the floor of the Kansas Senate. Whoever is selected to fill his remaining term has some big shoes to fill.

    Election was about the economy. Cato Institute executive vice president David Boaz contributes an excellent analysis of the election and a cautionary warning. In GOP Won on Economy, So Focus on It he writes: “The usual pattern is that after the election, voters and the activists go back to their normal lives, but organized interests redouble their efforts to influence policymakers. The people who want something from government hire lobbyists, make political contributions and otherwise do all they can to get their hands on taxpayers’ money. Meanwhile, the average taxpayer cannot be expected to exert influence on each particular spending bill. Tea partiers must change that pattern. They must keep up the pressure on Congress and state legislators. They must demand actual performance, not just promises. To keep momentum going, tea partiers should also insist that Republicans stay focused on the economic agenda that created their winning coalition, and not get bogged down in divisive social issues, which will split the movement and alienate independents.” In Kansas, this may be a problem. While incoming governor Sam Brownback is already exploring ways to cut taxes in Kansas, there are also proposals for various social legislative agendas, such as restrictions on abortion and requiring photo ID for voting. While these measures are important, I believe our state’s fiscal status is very important and must be dealt with.

    Organ recital this Tuesday. This Tuesday German organist Ludger Lohmann visits Wichita to present a recital as part of the Rie Bloomfield Organ Series. The event is at 7:30 pm Tuesday, November 9, at Wiedemann Recital Hall (map) on the campus of Wichita State University. Tickets are $10 with discounts available. For more information call the fine arts box office at 316-978-3233. I’ve not heard Mr. Lohmann live, but I own several of his recordings, and this is a recital that music lovers should not miss.

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Thursday November 4, 2010

    The future of politics is here, now. After noting how California reached way back to the past to elect a governor, Denis Boyles writes in National Review Online about the future, and how it’s being made right here: “If you want to see the bright and shining politics of the future, you have to go to the country’s heartland, and specifically to Kansas, a place most Democrats only know from Thomas Frank’s liberal folklore. There, the election has yielded two new congressmen — Mike Pompeo and the remarkable Tim Huelskamp — who were not created by the Tea Party movement because their politics were already ahead of that helpful wave. Here‘s a local paper’s coverage. Pompeo is a natural leader, while Huelskamp is something even more — an inspiration, maybe. (He’s briefly sketched in Superior, Nebraska). Mark these guys. Politically, they’re how it’s going to be.”

    Schools hope we won’t notice. Kansas Reporter tells of the new Kansas school funding lawsuit, filed on Election Day. Schools must have hoped that news of the filing would get swamped by election day news, which is what happened. The remedy asked for is more money, which has been shown not to work very well in terms of improving student performance … but it makes the education bureaucracy happy. I would suggest that students sue the Kansas State Department of Education for the inadequate education many have received. For a remedy, ask for things that have been shown to work: charter schools and widespread school choice.

    Kansas House Republicans. Yesterday I reported that Republicans gained 15 seats in the Kansas House of Representatives. Double-checking revealed that I had made a data entry error. The actual number of Republican gains is 16, for a composition of 92 Republicans and 33 Democrats.

    Kansas House Conservatives. In the same article it was noted that since some Kansas House Republicans — the so-called moderates or left-wing Republicans — vote with Democrats more often than not, there was a working caucus of about 55 conservatives. It is thought that conservatives picked up four seats in the August primary, bringing the number to 59. With most of the Republicans who defeated Democrats expected to join the conservative cause, it appears that conservatives now fill over 70 seats, constituting a working majority in the 125-member Kansas House of Representatives. Conservatives do not enjoy a majority of votes in the Kansas Senate, however.

    Local smoking bans still wrong. As noted in today’s Wichita Eagle, there might be a revisiting of the relatively new Kansas statewide smoking ban. Incoming Governor Sam Brownback believes that such decisions should be left to local governments, presumably counties or cities in this case. For those who believe that the proper foundation for making such decisions is unfoundering respect for property rights — plus the belief that free people can make their own decisions — it doesn’t matter much who violates these property rights.

    GOP: Unlock the American Economy Daniel Henninger in the Wall Street Journal on spending and what Congress really needs to do: “It is conventional wisdom that what voters, tea partiers and talkers want the Republican Party to do is cut the spending. … Getting the spending under control matters a lot.” But Henninger says controlling spending is not enough: “The new GOP has to find an identity beyond the Beltway power game, a way to make the nation’s most important activity not what is going on in Washington, as now, but what is done out in the country, among the nation’s daily producers and workers. The simplest way for the Republican Party to free itself and the economy from this unending Beltway hell is by reviving a core belief of one of the country’s most successful presidents: If the government will get out of the way, Ronald Reagan argued, there’s no limit to what the American people can achieve.” Government getting out of the way was one of freshly-minted Congressman Mike Pompeo’s campaign themes. National figures are warning Republicans that they have one chance to get things right in Washington or risk losing the support they won in this election. And Pompeo urged his supporters, more than once, to hold him accountable in Washington. Maybe Raj Goyle might want to linger in Wichita for a few years to see how things work out.

  • Political site FiveThirtyEight looks at polls, statistics

    The political website FiveThirtyEight provides an innovative look at political forecasting and also supplies useful information about candidates and political districts.

    The site FiveThirtyEight.com was active during the 2008 campaign season. Now it is a feature of the New York Times and can be accessed at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com. The name comes from from the number of electors in the United States electoral college.

    FiveThirtyEight uses a variety of methods to arrive at its results, including polls, where polls are weighted by several factors including recency, sample size, and the polling firm’s track record. Some polls are considered so unreliable that they are not included. The weighted polls results are adjusted by several factors, including a trendline adjustment and likely voter adjustment.

    The data is further adjusted by factors such as the state’s Partisan Voting Index, individual monetary contributions received, and “a variable representing stature, based on the highest elected office that the candidate has held.”

    There are additional steps in the analysis. Finally, the FiveThirtyEight procedures uses simulation, where various factors are considered randomly over a large number of trials.

    When FiveThirtyEight reports its results, it also calculates the probability that a candidate will win the election. It might forecast, for example, that a candidate will finish with 55 percent of the vote, with the probability of winning at 85 percent. Winning, of course, means that the candidate gets at least one more vote than the closest opponent — no margin of victory is implied in the probability.

    The site is also a useful repository of information such as voting record in selected issues, campaign finance, district demographics, and previous election results.

    The FiveThirtyEight site doesn’t say this, but we can easily surmise that the lead that some candidates currently enjoy is the result of not only the policy positions of the candidate and the political landscape of the district, but importantly the product of the campaign the candidates have waged so far. Candidates with leads need to realize this and keep up their efforts.

    FiveThirtyEight forecasts for Kansas

    In Kansas, here are the results FiveThirtyEight forecasts:

    For United States Senate: Democrat Lisa Johnston 31.2 percent; Republican Jerry Moran 66.2 percent. The probability of a Moran win is 100 percent. This forecast has held steady over time.

    For Kansas Governor: Republican Sam Brownback 60.5 percent; Democrat Tom Holland 37.6 percent. Probability of a Brownback victory is 99.9 percent. The vote difference has been narrowing very slightly, but the probability of a Brownback win is still overwhelming.

    For U.S. Congress, District 1: Republican Tim Huelskamp 72.7 percent; Democrat Alan Jilka 24.5 percent. Probability of a Huelskamp win is 100 percent.

    For U.S. Congress, District 2: Democrat Cheryl Hudspeth 35.6 percent; Incumbent Republican Lynn Jenkins 62.8 percent. Probability of a Jenkins win is 100 percent.

    For U.S. Congress, District 3: Democrat Stephene Moore 42.5 percent; Republican Kevin Yoder 55.0 percent. Probability of a Yoder victory is 92.7 percent. This is the only Kansas Congressional district that is remotely competitive, described as “leaning Republican.” Yoder’s margin has been increasing very slightly.

    For U.S. Congress, District 4: Democrat Raj Goyle 36.5 percent; Republican Mike Pompeo 61.0 percent. Probability of a Pompeo victory is 99.9 percent. Pompeo’s lead over Goyle has been growing since the September 17th version of the model for this contest. These results don’t include the SurveyUSA poll of just a few days ago, which showed Pompeo’s lead over Goyle widening.

  • Kansas first Congressional district poll released

    Although the primary is barely over and the general election is nearly three months away, a poll covering the race for United States Congress from the Kansas first district has already been released.

    The candidates for this position include Republican Tim Huelskamp, who is a Kansas Senator and farmer from the southwest Kansas town of Fowler. He won the Republican primary election on August 3rd.

    The Democratic Party nominee is Alan Jilka. He did not have an opponent in the primary election. Jilka is a Salina businessman and has served three terms as that north-central Kansas city’s mayor.

    The Libertarian Party nominated Jack Warner of Wright, just east of Dodge City.

    In the poll, Huelskamp leads with 65 percent of the respondents indicating they would vote for the Republican. Jilka received 23 percent, and Warner received seven percent. Five percent said they were undecided.

    Important dates for voters to remember are these:

    October 13: Election offices begin mailing advance voting ballots

    October 18: Last day to register to vote or change party affiliation for the general election

    October 27: Last day for election office to mail advance voting applications

    October 29: Last day for election office to mail advance voting ballots

    November 2: Election day

    Kansas first Congressional district pollKansas first Congressional district poll, August 9, 2010
  • Kansas polls and election results

    In the hotly contested Kansas Republican primary elections this year, polls generated a lot of interest. In two Kansas Congressional districts, independent polls did a good job of predicting the vote for all candidates except the two winners, and a candidate’s own poll may have been undermined by large voter turnout.

    In a KWCH/SurveyUSA poll of the Kansas first Congressional district, the poll accurately (within the margin of sampling error) predicted the outcomes for all candidates except for victor Tim Huelskamp. The survey predicted 24 percent of the vote for him, and the actual vote was 35 percent. This poll had three candidates tied, so it didn’t predict a winner.

    The same group also polled the fourth Congressional district. For three candidates — Jim Anderson, Wink Hartman, and Jean Schodorf, the poll predicted the exact percentage that the candidates actually received. The exception was winner Mike Pompeo. The poll predicted he would win and receive 31 percent of the vote. He did win, and his actual vote total was 39 percent.

    An election eve poll by political consulting firm Singularis had mixed results in the fourth district, but is notable in that it predicted eventual winner Pompeo’s vote total closely. The poll indicated 37 percent of the vote, and the actual was 39 percent.

    In the fourth district, Schodorf released four polls that her campaign commissioned. Each poll showed her support increasing, until in the third poll, she took the lead. In the fourth poll her lead increased.

    When comparing this poll to actual election results, we find that Schodorf’s poll overstated her actual performance by six percentage points. The performance of Anderson and Hartman were understated by six and seven points. For winner Pompeo, the final Schodorf poll understated his performance by 13 percentage points. (These polls did not include candidate Paij Rutschman.)

    In a conversation before the election with Schodorf’s pollster, he indicated several reasons why the numbers in her surveys were different than the KWCH/SurveyUSA poll numbers.

    One difference between the polls was the source of the voters called by the pollsters. The KWCH/SurveyUSA polls started with a list of households. To determine likely voters, the pollster would ask respondents if they were going to vote. Schodorf’s polls used voter lists as a source, calling only on voters who had a history of voting in August primary elections.

    Because many people look at voting as a positive civic duty, it is thought that people will overstate their actual tendency to vote, and this is a reason why polls might decide to use voter history as a selection device, especially in primary elections where turnout is generally low. It is standard practice of campaigns to use voter lists in their voter contact efforts.

    But this year voter turnout was high. The Wichita Eagle reported voter turnout in Sedgwick County — home to about 71 percent of the population in the fourth district — was 25 percent. That’s higher than the 19 percent turnout predicted statewide, and higher than in most primary elections.

    Considering Republican voters, the Sedgwick County election office reports there are 104,558 registered Republicans, and 49,967 Republican ballots were cast. That indicates a turnout of almost 48 percent, considering Sedgwick County only.

    By calling only those with a history of primary voting, many people who voted in this election would not have been sampled by polls based on voter history.

    The Schodorf polls were conducted by live operators, while the KWCH/SurveyUSA polls were automated response. This can lead to a difference in the types of people that respond to the poll.

    In the Republican Senate primary between Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt, the final KWCH/SurveyUSA poll had Moran ahead by 49 to 39 percent, with eight percent undecided. The actual totals were Moran winning with 50 percent to Tiahrt’s 45 percent, so that poll understated Tiahrt’s total by six percentage points while correctly choosing the winner.