Voice For Liberty

Tag: Raj Goyle

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Monday October 18, 2010

    Last day to register to vote. Today is the last day to register to vote in the November general election in Kansas. Contact your county election office for details.

    Democratic foreign campaign money. “Democratic leaders in the House and Senate criticizing GOP groups for allegedly funneling foreign money into campaign ads have seen their party raise more than $1 million from political action committees affiliated with foreign companies. … Republicans with groups under fire from the White House say the hefty campaign contributions illustrate Democratic hypocrisy.” More at The Hill: Dems have raised more than $1 million this cycle from foreign-affiliated PACs. Related: Axelrod, Gibbs keep up Dems’ offensive on Chamber donations.

    Rasmussen polls from last week. 55% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law: “The majority of U.S. voters continue to favor repeal of the new national health care law but are slightly less emphatic about the impact the law will have on the country. Confidence in home ownership falls: “Now more than ever, homeowners expect to see the value of their home go down over the next year. A new Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 32% expect the value of their home to decrease over the next year, the highest finding since Rasmussen Reports began asking the question regularly in December 2008.” Generic Congressional ballot: “With just three weeks to go until Election Day, Republicans hold an eight-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. Polling for the week ending Sunday, October 10, shows that 47% of Likely Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 39% prefer the Democrat.”

    Waiting for Superman to open in Wichita. Opens October 22 at the Warren Theater on East 13th in Wichita. Check the website for show times. Of the film, the Wall Street Journal wrote: ” The new film “Waiting for ‘Superman’” is getting good reviews for its portrayal of children seeking alternatives to dreadful public schools, and to judge by the film’s opponents it is having an impact. Witness the scene on a recent Friday night in front of a Loews multiplex in New York City, where some 50 protestors blasted the film as propaganda for charter schools.” In Kansas, the Wichita Eagle printed an op-ed penned by the education bureaucracy status quo — Sharon Hartin Iorio, dean of the Wichita State University College of Education in this case — to inoculate Wichitans against the effects of what I am told is a powerful film. Let’s hope this film gets Kansans to thinking about public schools in our state, as Kansas is way behind the curve on innovation, compared to other states.

    Democratic political activists wanted. Craigslist ad: “The Kansas Coordinated Campaign (Democrat) seeks passionate and hard-working persons to do paid door-to-door voter contact in Sedgwick. This is not a fundraising position, and is exclusively focused on ensuring that Democratic voices are heard this November.” Pay is $9/hour. An earlier ad from September: “Looking for several energetic people to work with a small campaign and make sure that Kansas voices are heard in the government! Looks great on resumes, etc. Must be able to work 8-12 hours a week (weekends and/or evenings). Registered Democrats only, no felony convictions.” That job advertised pay of $10/hour.

    Energy to be topic at Wichita Pachyderm. This Friday’s meeting of the Wichita Pachyderm club will feature John A. McKinsey speaking on the topic “Cap and Trade: What is the economic and regulatory impact of Congressional legislation?” The public is welcome at Wichita Pachyderm meetings. For more information click on Wichita Pachyderm Club.

    Trackers at work. The Kansas City Star explains the role of trackers in political campaigns: “Martin’s job is to follow and film political opponents — and try to catch them in a misstep. Trackers like Martin, who works for the Kansas Democratic Party, have become a fixture of modern political campaigns. They now are so common that many political consultants say campaigns are behind the times if they don’t employ one.” In the Kansas fourth Congressional district campaign, Democrat Raj Goyle employes a tracker to follow Republican Mike Pompeo. At the several events where I’ve seen him, he hasn’t asked a question. Here’s some video, apparently shot by the tracker himself, in which Republican National Chairman Michael Steele has a little good-natured fun at the tracker’s expense at a Pompeo campaign event. When asked by me, the Pompeo campaign would not reveal if they use a tracker.

    Kansas owes — a lot. From Kansas Budget Watch, a project of the Institute for Truth in Accounting: “One of the reasons Kansas is in this precarious position is state officials used antiquated budgeting and accounting rules to determine payroll costs. Truthful accounting would include in the payroll costs the portion of pension benefits employees earn every year they work. Accurate accounting provides that these real and certain expenses be reported on the state’s budget, balance sheet and income statement when earned, not when paid. Because the pension benefits are not immediately payable in cash, Kansas’ politicians have ignored most of these costs when calculating ‘balanced’ budgets. More than $8.5 billion of these and other costs have been pushed into the future, and thus onto your children’s and grandchildren’s backs.” See Financial State of Kansas for more. Whenever the shortfall of funding KPERS, the Kansas Public Employee Retirement System, is mentioned, public sector employees attack the messenger rather than facing the reality of the situation. Their strategy, as it is for a majority of legislators, is to pass along this funding shortfall to a future generation. This is dishonest, and a reason why the public employee pension system needs reform — now.

    Sales tax changes could scuttle grocery store CID. A proposal by Kansas Senator Dick Kelsey to eliminate the sales tax on groceries in Kansas could have an impact on a Wichita grocery store’s plans. The store, a Save-A-Lot proposed to be built in Planeview, would use the state’s Community Improvement District law to allow it to collect an extra two cents per dollar sales tax. Question: If the state stopped taxing groceries, could the store still collect the two cents per dollar CID tax? I’m guessing the answer is no. The store’s developer made the point that many of the stores customers use the food stamp program, so they don’t pay tax anyway. And non-grocery items like household supplies would still be taxed (probably), so there’s some sales tax and CID tax there. Here’s an example of how relying on government and politicians adds extra uncertainty and risk to entrepreneurial activity, as if market risk wasn’t enough already. Although I would say that those like Rob Snyder, the developer of the proposed store, who seek government subsidy to back their ventures can hardly be classified as entrepreneurs — at least not the type we need more of.

    TIF for rich, bit not for poor? A letter writer in yesterday’s Wichita Eagle writes: “Tax-increment financing districts have been used to provide millions of dollars to developers in their attempts to revitalize downtown Wichita. Blocking $400,000 for Planeview implies that buildings downtown are of far greater importance than the concern for human beings living in one of the poorest communities in Sedgwick County.” This is an issue the city has to grapple with, although it was the county commission that rejected the formation of the TIF district. The writer continues with a moral plea: “What has happened to our morality and our concern for and recognition of the needs of those who are less fortunate?” Morality is one of the reasons why I and my friend John Todd have opposed all TIF districts, regardless of location and purpose. That, and the fact that they don’t work — if growth in the entire community is the goal, instead of enriching specific people.

    Organist Massimo Nosetti. Tuesday Italian organist Massimo Nosetti will perform a recital as part of the Rie Bloomfield Organ Series. The recital starts at 7:30 pm in Wiedemann Recital Hall (map), on the campus of Wichita State University. Cost is $10.

    Wichita Eagle Opinion Line. “Am I the only one offended by Russ Meyer’s comment that ‘Anybody who is dumb enough to run against Carl (Brewer) is not qualified to be the mayor of Wichita’? When did Meyer become God?”

  • Goyle, Pompeo file campaign finance reports

    Here’s a summary of the campaign finance reports filed on October 16, 2010 for candidates for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas, Democrat Raj Goyle and Republican Mike Pompeo.

                      Third quarter        Election cycle
                  Goyle   Pompeo      Goyle     Pompeo
Opening balance 749,493  286,032          0          0
Contributions   368,902  921,943  1,624,308  1,877,030
Expenditures    776,772  692,669  1,283,027  1,341,724
Cash balance    341,623  535,306    341,623    535,306

    The “third quarter period” was from July 15, 2010 to September 30, 2010.

    Pompeo raised much more — 2.5 times as much — than Goyle during this period, which was necessary as Pompeo was engaged in a competitive primary election and spent nearly all his funds in that effort. For the entire election cycle, the amounts raised are fairly close.

    For expenditures during this reporting period, Goyle spent slightly more — about 12 percent more — than Pompeo.

    Going forward, Pompeo has a cash balance (as of September 30) $193,683 (57 percent) greater than Goyle.

    Soon the campaigns will start filing reports of contributions received almost daily as last-minute contributions are received.

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Friday October 15, 2010

    Moran at Wichita Pachyderm today. Today’s speaker at the Wichita Pachyderm Club is current United States Representative and Republican Party Senate nominee Jerry Moran. As a large audience is expected, please arrive by 11:45 to get your buffet lunch in time for the noon start (the larger meeting room will be used). Cost is $10, which includes lunch.

    Rasmussen: Voters don’t trust politicians’ promises. “Half (50%) now believe that when politicians break campaign promises, it’s because they deliberately made a false promise to get elected. Thirty-nine percent (39%) disagree and say unforeseen events after they took office forced them to break their promises.” In keeping with my belief in limited government, I might suggest that candidates promise to do less. But then liberal candidates say that conservative candidates don’t have a plan. More at Voters Believe Overwhelmingly That Politicians Don’t Keep Their Promises, and Most Say It’s Deliberate.

    No developer welfare; no apartments. The Wichita Business Journal reports that since developer Jason Van Sickle isn’t able to obtain federal historic preservation tax credits on a property, he’s abandoning plans to develop the project. Tax credits are, in effect, grants of money paid to — in this case — real estate developers through the tax system. But not to worry for the developer: he’s planning to hit up the state of Kansas and its taxpayers for historic preservation tax credits.

    Capitalism saved the miners. Daniel Henninger in the Wall Street Journal: “It needs to be said. The rescue of the Chilean miners is a smashing victory for free-market capitalism. … The president of the U.S. is campaigning across the country making this statement at nearly every stop: ‘The basic idea is that if we put our blind faith in the market and we let corporations do whatever they want and we leave everybody else to fend for themselves, then America somehow automatically is going to grow and prosper.’ Uh, yeah. That’s a caricature of the basic idea, but basically that’s right.” Henninger lists all the innovative technology used in the rescue, that innovation driven by capitalism in the countries where it is not snuffed out. A lesson: “In an open economy, you will never know what is out there on the leading developmental edge of this or that industry.” Innovation is driven by private companies with profit as their motive.

    Holland demands debates, then skips out. According to the Lawrence Journal-World, “[Kansas Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Tom] Holland was invited to the hour-long debate broadcast on WIBW radio and TV, but he declined because he said WIBW had already sponsored an earlier gubernatorial debate at the Kansas State Fair, and because the debate moderators were conservative radio talk show hosts Raubin Pierce and Megan Mosack.” Yes, Pierce and Mosack are conservatives. But Holland, who at one time demanded a series of 10 debates with Brownback, should have appeared. Conservative candidates and officeholders are summoned before liberal newspaper editorial boards all the time. They go and suffer the inevitable criticism. Holland should have done the same — and by all accounts, the questions were fair. And if the questions weren’t fair, Holland could have done what many candidates do in forums: they say whatever they want without regard to answering the question that was asked.

    This Week in Kansas. KAKE’s Chris Frank appears to talk about Hawker Beechcraft and Louisiana. Then Kansas Public Radio Statehouse Bureau Chief Stephen Koranda and myself discuss Kansas politics and poll results. Tim Brown is the host. “This Week in Kansas” airs in Topeka on WIBW TV channel 13 Saturdays at 11:30 am, and in Wichita on KAKE TV channel 10 Sundays at 9:00 am.

    Jim Anderson Program features candidate debate. Kansas fourth Congressional district hopefuls Democrat Raj Goyle and Republican Mike Pompeo will appear on Anderson’s radio show. Evidently, minor party candidates Susan Ducey (Reform Party) and Libertarian Shawn Smith will not appear, despite having made credible appearances on a recent KWCH televised forum. After this, Attorney Genreal candidate Derek Schmidt will appear. The Jim Anderson Program airs from 1:00 pm to 3:00 pm Saturdays on KNSS Radio 1330 on your old-school AM radio, live on the station’s website, or on your iPhone through the station’s free app.

    Kansas statewide races polled. KWCH and SurveyUSA report poll results under the headline GOP poised to win statewide races. The closet contest is for Attorney General, where challenger Derek Schmidt leads incumbent Stephen Six 48 percent to 40 percent. For the race the pollster notes: “Compared to other, stable Kansas statewide contests, there is notable volatility in the Attorney General race, uniquely; any outcome is possible.”

    Stossel on the future, tonight. “This Friday at 10pm [9:00 pm Central time], Fox News will broadcast my heated argument with NYC Transit Worker’s Union President John Samuelsen. It’s part of my special, ‘The Battle for the Future.’ More at Stossel’s blog.

    Tea party rules? The New York Times reports: “Enough Tea Party-supported candidates are running strongly in competitive and Republican-leaning Congressional races that the movement stands a good chance of establishing a sizeable caucus to push its agenda in the House and the Senate, according to a New York Times analysis. … While the numbers are relatively small, they could exert outsize influence, putting pressure on Republican leaders to carry out promises to significantly cut spending and taxes, to repeal health care legislation and financial regulations passed this year, and to phase out Social Security and Medicare in favor of personal savings accounts.” Related: FiveThirtyEight estimates Congressional Tea Party Caucus founder Michele Bachmann has 98.9 percent probability of winning her reelection contest.

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  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Thursday October 14, 2010

    Wichita mayor to lead LKM. City press release: “Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer was elected as the 81st president of the League of Kansas Municipalities (LKM) during the organization’s annual conference Tuesday morning in Overland Park. … He also urged his fellow local leaders to restore the public’s confidence in government. ‘We need to have our citizens recognize the value of competent government, and why our freedoms and security depend on it,’ he said.” As noted a few days ago on these pages, the League of Kansas Municipalities is a special interest group working in favor not of the citizens who live in Kansas towns and cities, but the politicians and bureaucrats that run them — and their cronies — who benefit from the LKM’s advocacy of things like TIF districts, STAR bonds, tax abatements, and eminent domain for economic development. So I don’t know if we should be proud that our mayor is the president of this group.

    Goody Clancy in Topeka, too. The Topeka Capital-Journal reports that Goody Clancy, the planning firm working for Wichita is also working in Topeka.

    FactFinder 12: Pompeo campaign ad. Analysis of an advertisement by Kansas fourth Congressional district candidate Republican Mike Pompeo by Michael Schwanke of KWCH 12 Eyewitness News concludes that Pompeo used some of the techniques that he and Republicans strongly criticized Democrat Raj Goyle for using. Schwanke concludes: “Goyle made those statements, but the ad doesn’t provide complete context.” This is the same issue that got Republicans riled up a few weeks ago.

    Pompeo poll released. The Pompeo campaign has released a poll that was commissioned and paid for by the campaign. The results are Pompeo with 58 percent of the vote, and Goyle with 31 percent. Two minor party candidates get three percent each, and undecided voters are at 16 percent. In its analysis the polling firm notes “the confrontational attacks by Goyle have backfired and have resulted in Goyle’s negative rating increasing substantially.” Candidate-produced polls need to be considered carefully. Goyle’s campaign has released their own polls in August and September which showed a smaller Pompeo lead than public polls. FiveThirtyEight indicates it flags polls which meet its definition of a partisan poll, which it defines as a poll conducted [on behalf of] any current candidate for office. It also says “Nevertheless, they are included in the ratings. If a pollster releases a poll into the public domain, we assume that they are interested in doing their best and most accurate work, regardless of whom the poll is conducted for.” The firm that conducted this poll for Pompeo conducted a poll for the same campaign July 6th through 8th, about a month before the August primary election, with results of Pompeo leading Wink Hartman 27 percent to 21 percent. The actual results were Pompeo 39 percent, Jean Schodorf 24 percent, and Hartman 23 percent. Public polls underestimated Pompeo’s actual vote total, too.

    Kansas legislator Merrick honored. American Legislative Exchange Council, described as a “nonpartisan individual membership organization of state legislators which favors federalism and conservative public policy solutions” has recognized Kansas Representative and Majority Leader Ray Merrick with its highest award. “The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) is pleased to announce that Representative Ray Merrick of the Kansas House of Representatives recently received the highest honor that a setting legislator can receive from the organization — Legislator of the Year. Rep. Merrick received the award at ALEC’s 37th Annual Meeting, held in San Diego, Cal., August 5 — 8, 2010. Nearly 1,500 state legislators, policy experts, and private-sector leaders from across the United States attended three days of intensive discussions on the critical issues facing the states and our nation. This award is given to state legislators who are ALEC members in good standing and have distinguished themselves by advancing, introducing, and/or enacting policies based on the fundamental Jeffersonian principles of free markets, limited government, federalism, and individual liberty.”

    Education reform setback. Wall Street Journal Review & Outlook: “Michelle Rhee described her decision yesterday to step down as Washington, D.C., schools chancellor after 3½ years as ‘heartbreaking.’ We share the sentiment. That one of the nation’s most talented school reformers was forced out does not bode well for students … Ms. Rhee’s resignation ‘won immediate support from the Washington Teachers’ Union,’ a strong signal that her departure is a victory for the adults who run public education, not the kids in failing schools. … One reason education reform is so difficult is because unions believe their political influence and money will outlast even the bravest reformers in the end — which is why they’re cheering today in the District of Columbia.”

    Wichita Eagle voter guide available. Click here. You can get a list of the candidates, along with their responses to questions, customized for your address. The first advance voter ballots were mailed yesterday.

    Kansas Jackass blogger guilty. Kansas Watchdog reports: “Former blogger Jason Croucher entered a plea of guilty to 3 counts of child pornography on Wednesday morning at the U.S. Court House. Croucher’s progressive ‘Kansas Jackass’ blog was widely read by members of the Kansas Legislature and others in Kansas in 2009. The blog is no longer online.” Croucher operated anonymously until “outed” by Earl Glynn and myself, although he planned to become known on his own at some time. His style was to poke fun at his opponents, using anything negative about them as material for his attacks. Rarely was public policy discussed in a meaningful and serious way.

    Wichita Eagle Opinion Line. “Gov. Mark Parkinson: I have six employees. I need to expand my business or quit. Please loan me $1 million to be paid back with my employees’ income tax. Thank you.” A fine example of government intervention crowding out private investment and initiative.

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Wednesday October 13, 2010

    FactFinder 12: Goyle campaign ad. From KWCH Television: “FactFinder 12 found no evidence Sentry International directly outsourced manufacturing work, only that it partners with companies in China and many other countries to purchase foreign made products.” What’s not talked about in regard to this issue is that U.S. companies don’t manufacture products overseas just for the heck of it. Competitive pressures force them to.

    The energy future will look familiar. George Will takes a look at the future of energy in America. But a reminder of the past, in case you forgot: “In 1977, Jimmy Carter said mankind could ‘use up’ all the world’s proven [oil] reserves ‘by the end of the next decade.’ Since then, the world has consumed three times more oil than was in the proven reserves.”

    The truth about our jobs crisis. BankruptingAmerica.org has a short video illustrating the depth and magnitude of the crisis. “The jobs report released on Friday shows that unemployment persists at 9.6 percent. As high as this number is, it doesn’t tell the whole unemployment story.” Additional resources are available at the site.

    Sowell on government greed. “Those who are always accusing people in the private sector of “greed” almost never accuse government of greed, no matter what it does. Indeed, the question of whether the government is greedy almost never comes up, so most of us probably never think about it. … Perhaps one of the most unconscionable acts of greed by government is confiscating people’s homes, in order to turn this property over to other people, who are expected to build things that will pay more taxes.”

    Tweets from Communications Week. At Wichita State University I served on a panel on social media and political campaigns. Some tweets from the audience: “Denae Herrman: Bob Week’s advice for candidates on Twitter: Be more candid & informal. Loosen up! I agree. What makes SM fun is the interactivity.” … “Shae Blevins: @bob_weeks says Goyle, Brownback and Pompeo have failed at using social media for their campaigns in some way. UPDATE your stuff!” … “Lou Heldman: Brownback, Goyle, Pompeo campaigns criticized by @bobweeks on Elliott School panel for sometimes inept use of social media.” I’m sorry, campaigns … but it’s true.

    DCCC cuts back on Moore support. From The Atlantic: “The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has pulled some funding from 10 districts, canceling their ad buys in six and reducing their buys in another four. … The committee has also continued cutting time in KS 03, where Stephene Moore (D) is running for her husband’s seat.”

    Liberal Billionaires Take On The Koch Brothers In California Energy Fight. Clare O’Connor in Forbes: “Much has been written about the oil and gas billionaire Koch brothers and their multimillion-dollar donations to right-wing causes. … However, in recent days a handful of liberal billionaires have decided to take on the Kochs in one of the most hotly contested battles this election season: Proposition 23, the California ballot that may well prove a bellwether for the future of energy legislation in the U.S.”

    Election dates to note: October 13 — advance ballots start to be mailed. October 18 — last day to register to vote or change party affiliation. October 29 — last day election office will mail advance voting ballots, so make sure your application arrives at your county election office before this date. November 2 — election day.

    Obama and the Politics of Outsourcing. William S. Cohen, writing in the Wall Street Journal: “For every job outsourced to Bangalore, nearly two jobs are created in Buffalo or other American cities.” … American popular opinion: “A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released Sept. 28 found that outsourcing was the top reason cited by Americans as the cause of the country’s economic problems — and that for the first time in years a majority (53%) of Americans say free-trade agreements have hurt the U.S.” This sentiment is unfounded. Continuing: “Most people treat outsourcing as a zero-sum game — one foreign worker replaces one American worker. But this is not how the dynamic global economy works. … [An analysis] found that when U.S. firms hired lower-cost labor at foreign subsidiaries overseas, their parent companies hired even more people in the U.S. to support expanded operations. … Those new U.S. jobs were higher-skilled and better-paying.” The politics of it: “During difficult economic periods, people are tempted to seek refuge in the false promise of protectionism. … Politicians are not above exploiting an issue by appealing to popular sentiment even when that sentiment is belied by economic reality.” Outsourcing of Kansas jobs is the major campaign theme — and attack ad hammer — of Kansas fourth district Congressional Democrat candidate Raj Goyle.

    Will Wichita have a government “bank” to fund downtown? The Wichita Eagle reports that the Wichita contingent visiting Louisville is being pitched the benefits of a government-run fund to spur downtown development. Two takeaways: “The fund, says JPMorgan banker Louis Straub II, doesn’t provide ‘free money’ to developers. ‘It’s a loan with much more favorable terms’ than developers would get through a traditional bank loan.” I would say that sounds like free money to me — as long as you consider paying interest on a loan a cost. Then, a real whopper: “Gary Schmitt, executive vice president at Intrust Bank, said the creation of such a fund in Wichita is possible. … there is precedent for Wichita-area banks getting together to help finance downtown projects. He said it was done in the case of the Hyatt Regency Wichita, for which local banks came together and created a participation loan to finance the hotel. ‘History has shown that the banks will come together for the betterment of the community,’ Schmitt said.” So wow did that work out? The Hyatt failed and is now owned by the city of Wichita, and can operate without concerns about profit. In 2001 the Eagle editorialized: “Having a marquee downtown hotel wholly owned by a city can’t be good for stimulating more private hotel development … Who’s going to be willing to finance, build and open a hotel in direct competition with one supported by public dollars?” As we’ve seen by recent action regarding the Broadview Hotel and Fairfield Inn, no one will — unless the government contributes millions in subsidy.

    Wichita Eagle opinion line. “The reason some people can’t find voter fraud in Kansas is the same reason a thief can’t find a policeman.”

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Monday October 11, 2010

    Moran at Wichita Pachyderm: This Friday’s speaker at the Wichita Pachyderm Club is current United States Representative and Republican Party Senate nominee Jerry Moran. As a large audience is expected, please arrive by 11:45 to get your buffet lunch in time for the noon start (the larger meeting room will be used). Cost is $10, which includes lunch.

    Wichita, get control of incentives: Rhonda Holman’s lead editorial in yesterday’s Wichita Eagle urged caution and restraint in Wichita’s use of tax incentives — a welcome message not expected from the Eagle. One conservative wrote to me: “I am stunned to find myself to be largely in agreement with today’s editorial by Rhonda Holman. Wow.” The editorial was critical of past city policy and practice, with Holman referring to special taxing districts as “tax tricks.” On the need for public investment in downtown, she wrote “the city must ensure its use of special taxing districts is strategic, fair, farsighted and defensible.” Whether our present political and bureaucratic leadership can accomplish this is, in my opinion, unlikely.

    Rasmussen key polls from last week: California Senate moves from “leans Democrat” to “toss-up” … Most Americans feel Nobel prizes are political … Harry Reid’s son trails in race for Nevada governor … Cyber bullying seen equally dangerous as physical bullying.

    Kansas initiative and referendum: The Wichita Eagle takes a look at initiative and referendum. A focus of the article is Secretary of State candidates Chris Biggs and Kris Kobach, which is a little misplaced, as they don’t have a say in whether Kansas has I&R, although they would administer the process and Kobach has made it a campaign issue. Key takeaways: “States with initiatives spend and tax less than states without them.” Politicians of both stripes hate I&R, with Kansas Senate President Steve Morris — a big-spending, big-taxing, liberal Republican — hating the idea, according to the article. Same for Speaker of the Kansas House of Representatives Mike O’Neil, a conservative. Not reported in the article is one of the first things the people may do in states that have I&R: impose term limits on their elected officials, an idea most of the political class hates.

    China Emerges as a Scapegoat in Campaign Ads: The New York Times reports: “With many Americans seized by anxiety about the country’s economic decline, candidates from both political parties have suddenly found a new villain to run against: China. … Democrats and Republicans are blaming one another for allowing the export of jobs to its economic rival.” Kansas fourth district Congressional hopeful Democrat Raj Goyle is mentioned as one of 29 candidates using China as a foil in campaign ads, just in case you thought Goyle’s attacks were novel. But the issue is murky, as the Times notes: “Never mind that there is hardly any consensus as to what exactly constitutes outsourcing and how many of the new overseas jobs would have stayed in American hands.”

    Regulation — Baptists and Bootleggers: “Here is the essence of the theory: durable social regulation evolves when it is demanded by both of two distinctly different groups. ‘Baptists’ point to the moral high ground and give vital and vocal endorsement of laudable public benefits promised by a desired regulation. Baptists flourish when their moral message forms a visible foundation for political action. ‘Bootleggers’ are much less visible but no less vital. Bootleggers, who expect to profit from the very regulatory restrictions desired by Baptists, grease the political machinery with some of their expected proceeds. They are simply in it for the money. The theory’s name draws on colorful tales of states’ efforts to regulate alcoholic beverages by banning Sunday sales at legal outlets. Baptists fervently endorsed such actions on moral grounds. Bootleggers tolerated the actions gleefully because their effect was to limit competition.” From Bruce Yandle, Bootleggers and Baptists in Retrospect. A podcast on the topic is Bruce Yandle on Bootleggers and Baptists.

    Obama fails education: From Three Reasons Obama’s Education Vision Fails at Reason: “While he brags constantly about his Race to the Top initiative, in which states competed for $4 billion to fund innovative programs, he’s spent more than $80 billion in no-strings-attached stimulus funds to maintain the educational status quo.” Obama also killed a school choice program in Washington, and has snuggled up to the teachers unions with a stimulus bill to preserve and add union teacher jobs “despite the fact that there are already more teachers per student than ever.” The status quo describes outgoing Kansas Governor Mark Parkinson and his education “vision.” Not that presumptive incoming governor Sam Brownback is a radical on school reform, however. His education plans are quite tepid and not likely to produce the results Kansas schoolchildren need.

    Wichita Eagle Opinion Line: “If Kansans want lower taxes and less government, why are there so many homeowners’ associations here?” I guess the distinction between government and voluntary action escapes this person.

  • Political site FiveThirtyEight looks at polls, statistics

    The political website FiveThirtyEight provides an innovative look at political forecasting and also supplies useful information about candidates and political districts.

    The site FiveThirtyEight.com was active during the 2008 campaign season. Now it is a feature of the New York Times and can be accessed at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com. The name comes from from the number of electors in the United States electoral college.

    FiveThirtyEight uses a variety of methods to arrive at its results, including polls, where polls are weighted by several factors including recency, sample size, and the polling firm’s track record. Some polls are considered so unreliable that they are not included. The weighted polls results are adjusted by several factors, including a trendline adjustment and likely voter adjustment.

    The data is further adjusted by factors such as the state’s Partisan Voting Index, individual monetary contributions received, and “a variable representing stature, based on the highest elected office that the candidate has held.”

    There are additional steps in the analysis. Finally, the FiveThirtyEight procedures uses simulation, where various factors are considered randomly over a large number of trials.

    When FiveThirtyEight reports its results, it also calculates the probability that a candidate will win the election. It might forecast, for example, that a candidate will finish with 55 percent of the vote, with the probability of winning at 85 percent. Winning, of course, means that the candidate gets at least one more vote than the closest opponent — no margin of victory is implied in the probability.

    The site is also a useful repository of information such as voting record in selected issues, campaign finance, district demographics, and previous election results.

    The FiveThirtyEight site doesn’t say this, but we can easily surmise that the lead that some candidates currently enjoy is the result of not only the policy positions of the candidate and the political landscape of the district, but importantly the product of the campaign the candidates have waged so far. Candidates with leads need to realize this and keep up their efforts.

    FiveThirtyEight forecasts for Kansas

    In Kansas, here are the results FiveThirtyEight forecasts:

    For United States Senate: Democrat Lisa Johnston 31.2 percent; Republican Jerry Moran 66.2 percent. The probability of a Moran win is 100 percent. This forecast has held steady over time.

    For Kansas Governor: Republican Sam Brownback 60.5 percent; Democrat Tom Holland 37.6 percent. Probability of a Brownback victory is 99.9 percent. The vote difference has been narrowing very slightly, but the probability of a Brownback win is still overwhelming.

    For U.S. Congress, District 1: Republican Tim Huelskamp 72.7 percent; Democrat Alan Jilka 24.5 percent. Probability of a Huelskamp win is 100 percent.

    For U.S. Congress, District 2: Democrat Cheryl Hudspeth 35.6 percent; Incumbent Republican Lynn Jenkins 62.8 percent. Probability of a Jenkins win is 100 percent.

    For U.S. Congress, District 3: Democrat Stephene Moore 42.5 percent; Republican Kevin Yoder 55.0 percent. Probability of a Yoder victory is 92.7 percent. This is the only Kansas Congressional district that is remotely competitive, described as “leaning Republican.” Yoder’s margin has been increasing very slightly.

    For U.S. Congress, District 4: Democrat Raj Goyle 36.5 percent; Republican Mike Pompeo 61.0 percent. Probability of a Pompeo victory is 99.9 percent. Pompeo’s lead over Goyle has been growing since the September 17th version of the model for this contest. These results don’t include the SurveyUSA poll of just a few days ago, which showed Pompeo’s lead over Goyle widening.

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Sunday October 10, 2010

    Countryman back on air: Gene Countryman, host of a long-running radio show that went off the air earlier this year, returns to the airwaves tonight with the Gene Countryman Show. The new show airs Sunday evenings from 6:00 pm to 8:00 pm on KNSS Radio 1330 AM.

    Koch article criticism: Andrew Ferguson, media critic for Commentary, provides a critical look at the left-wing hysteria over Jane Mayer’s New Yorker Magazine “exposé” of Charles Koch, David Koch, and Koch Industries. Best quote: “The only support in Mayer’s article for this extravagant charge comes from second-hand assertions, usually in quotes from the brothers’ critics. Many are anonymous. Others are incompletely identified. Conservative think tanks and activists are carefully pinned with the ideological tag; liberal think tanks and left-wing activists are, well, just think tanks and activists.”

    Who wins here? Letter from Pat Risley in Wichita Eagle: “Westar is requesting approval to recover direct costs and lost revenues associated with the implementation of the SimpleSavings program. Basically, it means that as homes become more energy-efficient, the lost revenues to Westar would be passed on to all Westar customers.” I thought we were all supposed to win with conservation measures. At its core, I imagine this has something to do with Westar being a regulated utility, rather than operating in a free market for energy.

    ‘Down-ballot’ races also are important this year: Writing in the Wichita Eagle, Kansas University political science professor Burdett Loomis discusses the “minor” statewide races in Kansas this year. Minor perhaps in terms of the public policy impact of some of these offices, but not for some of the candidates. Writes Loomis: “Beyond the races themselves, these statewide offices offer the real pathways for advancing to the governorship or Congress.”

    Informed choice: The Lawrence Journal-World notes the lack of debates in this election season, both statewide and local: “The near lack of joint debate or forum appearances by the two major party candidates for Kansas governor has drawn considerable attention across the state, but the gubernatorial candidates aren’t the only ones opting out of such events. The unwillingness of candidates to participate in voter education events is reaching all the way to the local level.” An exception might be the Kansas fourth district. Raj Goyle’s events page lists several past and upcoming forums and debates.

    Equity in education? Ken Stephens of the Hutchinson News contributes a story looking at the Kansas school finance formula and the issues involved in its reform. It contains a rare piece of wisdom from school lobbyist Mark Tallman, who advocates for more school spending at any expense to the state. Stephens reports: “Mark Tallman, a lobbyist for the Kansas Association of School Boards, once suggested that he would like to lock a group of the smartest superintendents in the state in a room to rewrite the formula. The kicker, though, would be that when they were done, all their names would be placed in a hat and their names would be randomly drawn to determine which district they would serve in the future. ‘So don’t write the formula for the district you’re in now,’ Tallman said. ‘Write a formula you think will work for whatever district.’” This reminds me of the wisdom of Walter E. Williams, who wrote “The kind of rules we should have are the kind that we’d make if our worst enemy were in charge.”

    Wichita Eagle Opinion Line: “Thanks to the Sedgwick County commissioners for saving us from another tax-increment financing district. Wish the city had some backbone to do what is right for taxpayers.” … “Did anyone else notice that the Republicans’ Pledge to America didn’t include one word about earmarks and pork-barrel spending? I guess that’s just too much to ask.”

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Saturday October 9, 2010

    This Week in Kansas: Tomorrow on KAKE Television‘s “This Week in Kansas” Kansas Policy Institute President Dave Trabert will be a guest speaking about economic development in Kansas. This is an important topic as Kansas is in “whack-a-mole” mode as we — case by case — defend our industry from poaching by other states. This Week in Kansas airs at 9:00 am on KAKE channel 10. The Winfield Daily Courier has other notes on this upcoming episode.

    Sue Schlapp: Wichita Eagle Opinion Line Extra today: “At a past Wichita City Council meeting, council member Sue Schlapp got on her soapbox about needing less government in our lives. Then last week she turned around and voted for the community improvement district tax for the Broadview Hotel. Is this talking out of both sides of her mouth?” I’m glad someone other than I has noticed this.

    Dave Unruh campaign billboardDave Unruh campaign billboard

    Unruh’s record on taxes: A reader sent in this photograph of a Dave Unruh billboard supporting his run for reelection to the Sedgwick County Commission, noting the irony of the “Lower Taxes” message. The reader may have been referring to Unruh’s support of a solid waste management fee (a tax by another name), his vote in August 2006 to increase the county mill levy, and his enthusiastic support of the tax for the downtown arena, now known as the Intrust Bank Arena. The vote for a tax increase in 2006 was in part to build the National Center for Aviation Training, said to be necessary to keep Wichita aviation companies in Wichita. Nonetheless, Cessna, Bombardier Learjet, and recently Hawker Beechcraft have found it necessary to shake down the state and local government for even more corporate welfare. Still, I don’t recommend voting for Unruh’s opponent Betty Arnold, who recently wondered where was the government stimulus for USD 259, the Wichita public school district, on which board she serves. Evidently Arnold doesn’t realize that nearly every dollar the Wichita schools spend is government money.

    Arnold’s website missing: By the way, Google can’t find a website supporting Betty Arnold’s campaign, which says a lot right there.

    Goyle and Pompeo: Tomorrow Kansas fourth Congressional district candidates Democrat Raj Goyle and Republican Mike Pompeo debate at Congregation Emanu-El at 7011 E. Central in Wichita. State of the State KS reports: “The debate will be moderated by KAKE-TV’s Tim Brown from This Week In Kansas and will focus on both local economic, political and foreign policy issues facing the U.S. The debate is free and begins at 10:40 am. A brunch will be served before the debate for $7.” It appears that Reform party candidate Susan Ducey and Libertarian Shawn Smith will not appear. The two minor party candidates made credible appearances on a recent KWCH televised forum.

    Goyle video, polls: Speaking of Goyle, video of Goyle endorsing presidential candidate Barack Obama in Texas has surfaced. And, more bad polls for Goyle.