Tag: Kansas Republicans

  • Kansas primary election analysis

    At State of the State KS, Fort Hays State University Political Science Professor Chapman Rackaway contributes analysis of the statewide and Congressional races.

    Rackaway notes that the Kansas first and fourth Congressional districts were expected to be very close races, but both Tim Huelskamp and Mike Pompeo won going away with large margins.

    The big message of the night, he writes, is this: “[Jerry] Moran’s win in the Senate primary suggests that the Kansas GOP prefers a more centrist message. But Moran’s win was an anomaly. Kobach, Pompeo, Brownback, and Huelskamp suggest that the state has taken a turn to the right.”

    At National Review Online, Denis Boyles, author of the insightful book — despite its name — on Kansas politics Superior, Nebraska: The Common Sense Values of America’s Heartland, contributes (Mostly) Good News from Kansas. he starts by laying out the essential facts of the Kansas political landscape: “In Kansas, local politics is often made confusing by the powerful presence of very liberal RINOs [Republicans In Name Only]. They constitute a third party, and their half-century of influence has done some nasty work, most recently insuring the victory, twice, of Kathleen Sebelius.”

    Boyles is enthusiastic about the first Congressional district result: “But for people who like their conservatism straight up — no glass, no ice — the best news may be the victory of state Sen. Tim Huelskamp.”

    About the fourth district, Boyles wrote: “In Tiahrt’s district, a very liberal Democrat named Raj Goyle will spend a lot of his own money to try to defeat the GOP’s Mike Pompeo, a local businessman with a military career (he graduated first in his class at West Point) behind him. The Wichita newspaper, a McClatchy thing, has always been loyal to Goyle. Fortunately, fewer and fewer readers will notice.”

    But for the Kansas statehouse, the picture is not as bright. He presents a message he received from an unnamed Kansas legislator, who wrote: “Overall though, I am very disappointed … we did not change the left-wing Republican margin in the House.”

    Boyles concluded: “It’s true that the state senate and the house are both at the mercy of liberal Republicans. RINOs really do tear up the landscape.”

    For results of statewide races and other state offices, click on 2010 unofficial primary election results at Kansas Secretary of State.

  • Tiahrt, in close campaign, comes in second

    At an election night watch party at the Hilton Hotel in Wichita, supporters of Todd Tiahrt in his campaign for United States Senate were encouraged by early returns from Sedgwick and Johnson counties.

    Tiahrt led and won in the state’s two largest counties.

    But as western Kansas votes started to be tallied, Jerry Moran‘s margin steadily increased as votes for the popular western Kansas Congressman rolled in. The Associated Press called the race for Moran.

    At shortly after midnight, Tiahrt and his wife Vicki entered the hotel ballroom to rousing applause from his supporters.

    “We want Todd! We want Todd!” chanted the crowd.

    “Thank you very much. I love you guys,” said the candidate. He said we ran a strong campaign.

    We have a great country, a resilient county, he said. “Lower taxes, smaller government — this is what Kansans want — and what we campaigned on.” He said that he won the third and fourth Congressional districts. The win by Tiahrt in Johnson County was unexpected by most observers.

    He thanked his supporters and said he was sorry that he didn’t win.

    Addressing the audience, Vicki Tiahrt thanked the supporters and volunteers. “We are winners tonight,” she said.

    After his speech, Tiahrt said that his goal is to have a Republican Senator elected from Kansas, so he will be calling Jerry Moran to offer his congratulations and support. He also said he will work to make sure Mike Pompeo is elected to Congress as his successor.

    He listed some of his accomplishments — the repeal of the Wright amendment, a new runway at the Wichita airport, grade separations in downtown Wichita, and the capture of the BTK serial killer — and said he had a good run in Congress.

    He added that he believes that Pompeo will work as hard as he has.

    Asked if he would consider running for other office he said it’s too early to think about that now.

  • Ranzau takes Sedgwick County commission primary

    Tonight Richard Ranzau has won the primary election for Sedgwick County Commission over former incumbent Lucy Burtnett. I spoke with the candidate at a gathering of Republicans at the Wichita Hilton.

    Richard, with 46 of 48 precincts reporting, you’re leading with 55 percent of the vote. What do you think was the reason for your victory?

    Ranzau said it was a combination of the right message and good people supporting him, and good old fashioned sweat equity.

    He said he started walking door-to-door in April, and finished on Monday, visiting 120 houses on the hottest day of the year.

    Did you know you were going to win, I asked? Ranzau said that he was getting a good response and people told him he would win, but he said it’s hard to tell what the big picture looks like.

    He added he’s taking his family on vacation for a few days, and then wil start the campaign for the general election.

    At the moment Kansas Senator Oletha Faust-Goudau is leading former Wichita city council member Sharon Fearey 50 percent to 49 percent.

  • Election eve Kansas poll

    An election eve statewide poll in Kansas indicates a likely win for Jerry Moran for United States Senate. The first Congressional district remains a toss-up between Tim Huelskamp and Jim Barnett, and it looks like Mike Pompeo is in control in the fourth district. Kevin Yoder has a large lead in the third district.

    In the first public poll for Kansas Secretary of State, Kris Kobach has a large lead, with over twice as much support as nearest rival Elizabeth Ensley.

    This poll, conducted by The Singularis Group, LLC, was not commissioned by or paid for by any candidate or candidate committee. Here are the results:

    954 Interviews of Likely GOP Primary Voters
    All Interviews taken on Monday evening, August 2, 2010
    95% Confidence Interval, Margin of Error +/- 3.1%

    U.S. Senate
                            Congressional
                              Districts
                   Statewide 1  2  3  4
    Jerry Moran       44     72 38 40 19
    Todd Tiahrt       37     21 32 37 63
    Tom Little         3      2  4  3  2
    Bob Londerholm     2      0  3  2  3
    Undecided         15      5 24 18 14
    
    Secretary of State
                            Congressional
                              Districts
                   Statewide 1  2  3  4
    Kris Kobach       38     30 39 50 32
    J.R. Claeys       13     17 12  6 19
    Elizabeth Ensley  17     13 24 24  8
    Undecided         31     40 26 20 41
    
    U.S. Congress, District 1
    Tim Huelskamp      26%
    Jim Barnett        25%
    Tracey Mann        18%
    Rob Wasinger        7%
    Sue Boldra          5%
    Marck Cobb          1%
    Undecided          18%
    
    U.S. Congress, District 3
    Dan Gilyeat         2%
    Dave King           0%
    Patricia Lightner  28%
    Jerry Malone        5%
    Craig McPherson     2%
    John Rysvavy        2%
    Jean Ann Uvodich    4%
    Kevin Yoder        40%
    Undecided          17%
    
    U.S. Congress, District 4
    Paij Rutschman      6%
    Wink Hartman       19%
    Mike Pompeo        37%
    Jean Schodorf      29%
    Jim Anderson        3%
    Undecided           6%
    
  • Kansas Republican senate primary closer

    A poll released today by KWCH Television in Wichita and SurveyUSA shows a closer contest for the Republican Party nomination for United States Senate from Kansas between Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt.

    Moran has 49 percent support, while Tiahrt draws 39 percent. Two other candidates, one having withdrawn, shared five percent of the vote. Only six percent of voters are undecided according to this survey.

    The pollster says that compared to two weeks ago, Moran is down one percentage point, and Tiahrt is up three. Tiahrt’s strategy to paint himself as the true conservative appears to be working, at least among conservative voters. Today he leads among conservatives by five percentage points, where two months ago Moran led by 21 percentage points in this group.

    The poll notes potential trouble for Moran: “Most ominous for Moran: Among the 17 percent of voters who report they have already cast their ballots, Tiahrt is nominally ahead, 46 percent to 43 percent. Among those who tell SurveyUSA they are likely to vote, but have not yet done so, Moran leads by 13.”

    If something were to happen on election day to suppress turnout, that would be bad news for Moran. Temperatures across Kansas are expected to top out at over 100 degrees tomorrow, but with little chance of precipitation or storms.

    In this sampling of Republican voters who have either voted or are likely to vote, 63 percent of voters identified themselves as conservative, 29 percent as moderate, and five percent as liberal.

    Kansas Republican Senate pollsKansas Republican Senate polls
  • Moran – Tiahrt opinion and reporting roundup, part two

    Here’s some additional reporting and opinion on the campaign for the Republican Party nomination for United States Senate between Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. An earlier collection is at Moran — Tiahrt opinion, reporting roundup.

    Club for Growth gives slight nod to Tiahrt over Moran (Bob Weeks, Voice for Liberty) “Of the groups that analyze legislators and their votes, the Club for Growth produces a scorecard that focuses on votes relating to economic growth.”

    Tiahrt, Moran vote ratings show slight difference (Bob Weeks, Voice for Liberty) “The campaign for the Republican Party nomination for the United States Senate from Kansas between Todd Tiahrt of Goddard and Jerry Moran of Hays is making national news. The issue is over who is the most conservative. A new article in U.S. News and Word Report states: ‘Both Tiahrt and Moran have portrayed themselves as fiscal conservatives, favoring lower taxes and less spending by the federal government.’”

    Wichita could sway Senate race (Rick Plumlee, Wichita Eagle) “Is the U.S. Senate race really all about Johnson County? Doesn’t Wichita fit in there somewhere? The answers are yes and yes.”

    Campaign mailings turn aggressive (Dave Helling and Steve Kraske, Kansas City Star) “Even in an Internet age of blogs and tweets, old-fashioned mailboxes this week are still packed with political messages that often contain the most aggressive and misleading claims anywhere.”

    Candidate Profile: Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran (Ben Bauman, KTKA) “The two long-time GOP Congressmen are battling it out for the Senate seat being vacated by Sam Brownback, who’s running for governor. Tiahrt has been in the Congress one term longer than Moran. Tiahrt was elected in 1994, and Moran two years later. Prior to their elections to Congress, both served in the state legislature.”

    What’s the Matter with Kansas Politics? Moore Questions about Moran. (Kathryn Jean Lopez, National Review Online The Corner) “But here’s what I do know in the midst of the eleventh-hour campaign noise: In a post-Santorum Senate, the body can use as many courageous voices in defense of innocent human life as it can get. They’re losing one, with Sam Brownback’s leaving. That seat would remain filled with Tiahrt. (In fact, Tiahrt stood apart from even Brownback in opposing former Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius’s nomination as secretary of Health and Human Services, because of her ties to late-term-abortion provider George Tiller, who was later murdered.) That’s not to say Jerry Moran is not pro-life — Paul Moore stresses that he can’t and won’t make that claim. But he’s seen both candidates and knows which one’s the leader there.”

    Moran, Tiahrt spar on trade vote: Moran denies quid pro quo allegation by Rove, Tiahrt (Tim Carpenter, Topeka Capital-Journal) “Tiahrt knows what it is like to be under the ethics spotlight in Washington. He was the subject of an investigation by a House panel regarding budget earmarks secured for his campaign contributors. He was cleared by the committee in February, but some evidence was forwarded to the U.S. Department of Justice by an arm of the House, the Office of Congressional Ethics. Likewise for Moran. The Office of Congressional Ethics decided in June to drop a review into whether Moran received improper gifts by paying below-market rent to live near the Capitol at a residence operated by a religious organization.”


    Race sees character issue rekindle: As Moran-Tiahrt contest for Senate seat wraps up, they air old accusations.
    (John Hanna, Associated Press) “Kansas Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt are returning to character issues they’ve long raised about each other as the end nears in their bitter race for the Republican nomination for an open U.S. Senate seat.”

    Kansas’ often genial politics turns nasty in Senate race as GOP looks for conservative fighter (John Hanna, Associated Press) “The big issue in Kansas’ U.S. Senate race is which of two veteran Republican congressmen will fight hardest — and loudest — against President Barack Obama’s agenda. The fiery contest is unusual in a state where politicians are better known for being polite. It also underscores Republicans’ national strategy in 2010 — find candidates who’ll give Obama and his fellow Democrats no quarter whatsoever.”

    Voting records tell how Tiahrt, Moran differ (Dave Helling, Kansas City Star) “Here are 10 important votes in the House since 2007 in which Tiahrt and Moran made different choices. The bills were picked by The Kansas City Star.”

    Earmarks and Kansas elections (Bob Weeks, Voice for Liberty) “So how do the two veteran Kansas Congressmen rank on earmarks and ‘pork’ spending? The Club for Growth compiles a scorecard called the RePORK Card. This measures votes on ’68 anti-pork amendments’ in the 2009 Congress. Club Executive Director David Keating writes ‘The RePORK Card will help taxpayers measure the dedication of their representatives to changing the culture of corruption that surrounds pork-barrel spending.’ For 2009, Moran scored 96 percent, voting against 65 of the 68 measures. Tiahrt scored 29 percent, voting against 20 of the 68.”

  • Final Kansas fourth Congressional district polls indicate close race

    Update: An election eve poll has been released. Click on Kansas election eve poll.

    Final polls indicate a close race in the contest for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas. Two candidates, Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf, are virtually tied for the lead as the campaign enters its final few days.

    The candidates for this nomination and their campaign websites are Wichita businessman Jim Anderson, Wichita businessman Wink Hartman, Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo, Latham engineer Paij Rutschman, and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf.

    Schodorf campaign poll

    Candidate Jean Schodorf has released a survey that shows her, again, in the lead. The poll was conducted on behalf of the Schodorf campaign on July 29th. It shows her in the lead with 30 of the vote, with Pompeo just behind and within the margin of sampling error, at 26 percent.

    Hartman is in third place with 16 percent, and Anderson follows with seven percent. As in the past, Schodorf’s polls didn’t include Rutschman. 21 percent are undecided, which is again — as it has always been with Schodorf’s polls — much higher than produced by independent polls.

    The news release accompanying this canvass didn’t give many details, but Schodorf’s past polls conducted by the same consulting firm have been live operator surveys of 400 voters. Likely primary voters are selected by using voter lists.

    As with all polls produced on behalf of a candidate, we need to remember that surveys produced and released by campaigns are just that, and the results would probably not be released by a campaign if the results did not portray the candidate favorably.

    Kansas fourth Congressional district poll resultsKansas fourth Congressional district poll results

    State of the State KS poll

    State of the State KS in conjunction with Fort Hays State University and its Docking Institute of Public Affairs has released a poll of the Kansas first and fourth Congressional districts. The results for the fourth district are at State of the State KS Poll: Schodorf And Pompeo Take Lead In Campaign For Congress in Fourth District.

    In the poll, Schodorf leads with 22 percent, Pompeo has 19 percent, Hartman has 13 percent, Democrat Raj Goyle as 11 percent, Anderson with six percent, and 28 percent are undecided.

    This poll differs from others in that Goyle, one of the two Democratic Party candidates, was included with the Republicans in the survey question.

    This survey used a smaller sample size, and as a result the margin of sampling error is larger at eight percent.

    Commentary on the results of this survey by Fort Hays University Political Science Professor Chapman Rackaway concluded: “In short, Pompeo and Schodorf seem to be the two strongest candidates with Hartman struggling to keep up after a very strong opening to his campaign. Pompeo has established himself as the candidate of choice for conservatives, regardless of what issue the respondent self-identifies on. Schodorf’s lead among women and moderates has put her ahead, only slightly.”

    The State of the State KS survey asked many background questions, and they may be read at State of the State KS.

    Averaging the Kansas fourth district polls

    Taking the last three available polls (the two described above and the KWCH/SurveyUSA poll) we find a very close race between two candidates for this nomination. Pompeo and Schodorf lead with 25 percent, with Hartman at 17 percent and Anderson at nine percent. 18 percent are undecided.

    Kansas fourth Congressional district poll results averagedKansas fourth Congressional district poll results averaged
  • Kansas fourth district poll shows tightening race with Pompeo in lead

    KWCH Television in Wichita and SurveyUSA have released a poll of candidates seeking the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas.

    The survey shows support for Wichita businessman Jim Anderson and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf on the rise, while the numbers for Wichita businessman Wink Hartman continue to decline. The support for Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo also fell slightly, well within the poll’s level of sampling error.

    The numbers have Pompeo leading with 31 percent, Schodorf with 24 percent, Hartman with 23 percent, Anderson with 13 percent, and Latham engineer Paij Rutschman at two percent.

    Undecided voters are at six percent. The poll was conducted July 26th through 28th. The margin of sampling error is 3.5 percent.

    Interestingly, this poll has Schodorf at the same level of support as shown in her own internal poll released earlier this week. Her poll, however, showed her in first place with 24 percent support, with Pompeo in second place at 21 percent. That difference is within the poll’s sampling error.

    The Schodorf poll had 32 percent of voters as undecided, which is — and has been the case with all of Schodorf’s surveys — several times higher than the six percent undecided measured by SurveyUSA.

    State of the State KS is working on a poll that should be released today or tomorrow. This will provide another independent measure of voter sentiment as election day — August 3rd — draws near.

    Some voters have already voted. At yesterday’s meeting of the Sedgwick County Commission, Election Commissioner Bill Gale said that about 13,000 mail ballots have been sent to voters, with about half being returned already.

    In the 2008 primary election, 36,724 ballots were cast in Sedgwick County. With 6,500 ballots already returned, this means that at least 17 percent of voters (assuming the same turnout as in 2008) have already voted.

    For the fourth Kansas Congressional district, about 71 percent of the population is in Sedgwick County.

    On the Democratic Party side of this race, it appears that the television advertisements appearing for Raj Goyle are working. He trailed in the last poll two weeks ago, but now leads opponent Robert Tillman 63 percent to 19 percent, with 18 percent undecided. Two weeks ago Tillman led Goyle 40 percent to 36 percent.

    Kansas fourth Congressional district poll resultsKansas fourth Congressional district poll results
  • Kansas fourth Congressional district campaign finance reports

    Candidates for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas have filed campaign finance reports for the first two weeks of July and some last-minute reports since then.

    The reports show Wichita businessman Wink Hartman continuing to self-finance his campaign, with $0 in outside contributions collected in July. His campaign continues to spend at a rapid pace.

    The candidates for this nomination and their campaign websites are Wichita businessman Jim Anderson, Wichita businessman Wink Hartman, Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo, Latham engineer Paij Rutschman, and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf.

    Here is a summary of FEC campaign finance reports for the first part of July 2010:

    Kansas Fourth District Republican campaign finance reports,
    July 1, 2010 through July 14, 2010
    
                   Anderson  Hartman   Pompeo  Schodorf
    Contributions    2,060         0   49,347    14,891
    Candidate loans      0   289,537        0         0
    Expenditures     2,240   427,872  207,830    23,172
    Cash balance     4,049    40,958  286,032     8,823
    

    Figures for Rutschman were not available at the FEC data site.

    Figures that stand out in this report include zero dollars raised by the Hartman campaign from individual contributions. All money raised during this period came from the candidate himself.

    Also, Hartman spent more than twice as much as the second-largest spender.

    Pompeo has, by far, the largest cash balance as of July 14. Normally this would be a positive factor as the campaign proceeds to election day. Hartman’s smaller cash balance, however, has little of the normal meaning associated with it, as the candidate makes frequent contributions to his campaign as funds are required. This is characteristic of self-financed campaigns.

    From the start of the election cycle through July 14, 2010, the numbers look like this:

    Kansas Fourth District Republican campaign finance reports,
    through July 14, 2010
    
                  Anderson   Hartman   Pompeo Rutschman Schodorf
    Contributions  38,924    141,949  935,087       80   50,338
    Candidate loans 3,275  1,563,137        0   30,000   29,006
    Expenditures   37,301  1,664,129  649,054   24,464   70,521
    

    (Rutschman’s figures are through June 30, 2010)

    In this table we see the largely self-financed Hartman campaign outspending all other candidates. His campaign has spent more than twice as much as all other campaigns together.

    This still isn’t the entire story, as candidates are filing “48 hour notice” reports of last-minute contributions (expenditures are not included in these filings). Through July 28, 2010, here are the numbers:

               Anderson   Hartman  Pompeo
    Total        5,100    348,500  35,700
    

    (Schodorf and Rutschman have not filed any of these reports.)

    In the case of Hartman, the total of $348,500 is all from the candidate himself. Overall, the Hartman campaign has raised $2,053,586, with 93 percent from candidate self-financing.

    According to OpenSecrets.org, a project of the Center for Responsive Politics, the average amount spent by winning candidates in 2008 for the U.S. House of Representatives was $1,372,591. Hartman is well over this figure.

    Each House district has roughly the same population, although the cost of running campaigns varies widely due to the differing characteristics of districts.

    Self-financed candidates

    As the Kansas fourth district has one candidate who is self-financed, let’s take a look at self-financed candidates and their characteristics.

    In writing about political scientist Jennifer A. Steen and her book, Self-Financed Candidates in Congressional Elections (University of Michigan Press, 2006), Bruce Bartlett wrote this:

    One of her findings is that the necessity of asking people for contributions is valuable to a candidate, especially inexperienced ones. She thinks this is mainly because self-financing keeps bad candidates from being weeded out of contention by a lack of contributions. But I think it also results because once people have given someone a campaign contribution they become invested in that candidate and are more willing to vote for him or her on Election Day and to work on his or her behalf.

    Voters also resent candidates who appear to be trying to buy an election. Self-financed candidates may be independent of special interests, but they also often appear aloof from the concerns of average voters. Having to ask people for money forces a candidate to take their feedback, thus learning about their concerns directly rather than filtered through pollsters and consultants.

    In her book, Steen writes: “They [self-financers] are also less likely to engage in what Richard Feuno calls ‘two-way’ campaigning, or interaction between the candidate and constituency, which thus entails some degree of learning and responsiveness on the candidates part.”

    Perhaps as a result, self-financed candidates don’t have a very good track record of winning elections. Steen found that for competitive U.S. House of Representative districts, candidates who are “extreme self-financers” (Hartman falls in this category) won 37 percent of primary election contests. That winning percentage falls to 31 percent in general elections.

    Voters are interested in what type of representative a candidate would make. Do self-financed candidates differ from other candidates once in office? Steen writes: “These differences do not recommend self-financers as representatives. They are quite unlike the vast majority of citizens, even citizens in more affluent districts, and they are less likely than non-self-financers to confront and engage the citizens they seek to represent.”

    Self-financed candidates usually claim that since they have a source of campaign funds independent from the usual sources — which these candidates usually describe as “corrupt” or undesirable in some other sinister way — they can act in the best interests of all their constituents once in office. But Steen found differently: “However, once elected most self-financers assimilate very rapidly to the norms of fund-raising — only a small percentage continue to resist the charms of campaign contributors.”

    Kansas fourth Congressional district campaign financeKansas fourth Congressional district campaign finance