Voice For Liberty

Tag: Featured

  • Downtown Wichita population is up

    Downtown Wichita population is up

    New Census Bureau data shows the population growing in downtown Wichita.

    Data released today by the United States Census Bureau shows the estimated population for zip code 67202 in 2018 was 1,671, an increase of 73 from the prior year.

    Zip code 67202 is greater downtown Wichita, from the Arkansas River east to Washington, and Kellogg north to Central, roughly.

    The source of this data is U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. This means the data is not the Bureau’s estimate of the population in 2018. For areas of population less than 65,000, the Bureau does not provide one-year estimates. Instead, the five-year estimates use data gathered over a longer time period in order to provide greater accuracy. The 90 percent confidence interval for the 2018 estimate is plus or minus 214 persons.

    The Bureau cautions that the five-year estimates should not be used as the population of the year in the midpoint of the five-year period: “Therefore, ACS estimates based on data collected from 2011–2015 should not be labeled ‘2013,’ even though that is the midpoint of the 5-year period.” (See below for more about these data.)

    Further, the Bureau issues this advice: “However, in areas experiencing major changes over a given time period, the multiyear estimates may be quite different from the single-year estimates for any of the individual years.” Downtown Wichita, I believe, qualifies as an area “experiencing major changes.” The five-year estimates must be considered in light of this advice.

    Still, as shown in the nearby table and charts, the ACS numbers are far below the population reported by the downtown Wichita development agency Downtown Wichita. See my article Downtown Wichita population for more about this topic.

    Following, excerpts from the Census Bureau publication Understanding and Using American Community Survey Data: What All Data Users Need to Know.

    Understanding Period Estimates
    Single-year and multiyear estimates from the ACS are all “period” estimates derived from a sample collected over a period of time, as opposed to “point-in-time” estimates such as those from past decennial censuses. For example, the 2000 Census “long form” sampled the resident U.S. population as of April 1, 2000.

    While an ACS 1-year estimate includes information collected over a 12-month period, an ACS 5-year estimateincludes data collected over a 60-month period.

    In the case of ACS 1-year estimates, the period is the calendar year (e.g., the 2015 ACS covers the period from January 2015 through December 2015). In the case of ACS multiyear estimates, the period is 5 calendar years (e.g., the 2011–2015 ACS estimates cover the period from January 2011 through December 2015). Therefore, ACS estimates based on data collected from 2011–2015 should not be labeled “2013,” even though that is the midpoint of the 5-year period.

    Multiyear estimates should be labeled to indicate clearly the full period of time (e.g., “The child poverty rate in 2011–2015 was X percent.”). They do not describe any specific day, month, or year within that time period.

    Multiyear estimates require some considerations that single-year estimates do not. For example, multiyear estimates released in consecutive years consist mostly of overlapping years and shared data.

    The primary advantage of using multiyear estimates is the increased statistical reliability of the data compared with that of single-year estimates, particularly for small geographic areas and small population subgroups. Figure 3.2 shows the improved precision of an ACS 5-year estimate, compared with a 1-year estimate, for child poverty statistics in Rice County, Minnesota—a county with about 65,000 residents in 2015. The lines above and below the point estimates represent the confidence intervals, or ranges of uncertainty, around each estimate. The confidence interval for the 1-year child poverty estimate ranges from 1.4 percent to 9.4 percent (8 percentage points) while the interval for the 5-year estimate is narrower, ranging from 12.8 percent to 19.2 percent (6 percentage points). (Refer to the section on “Understanding Error and Determining Statistical Significance” for a detailed explanation of uncertainty in ACS data.)

    Deciding Which ACS Estimate to Use
    For data users interested in obtaining detailed ACS data for small geographic areas (areas with fewer than 65,000 residents), ACS 5-year estimates are the only option.

    The 5-year estimates for an area have larger samples and smaller margins of error than the 1-year estimates. However, they are less current because the larger samples include data that were collected in earlier years. The main advantage of using multiyear estimates is the increased statistical reliability for smaller geographic areas and small population groups.

    However, in areas experiencing major changes over a given time period, the multiyear estimates may be quite different from the single-year estimates for any of the individual years. The single year and multiyear estimates will not be the same because they are based on data from two different time periods.

  • Kansas personal income

    Kansas personal income

    For the third quarter of 2019, the rate of personal income growth in Kansas was near the top of the states, but behind the nation in year-over-year growth.

    Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of the United States Department of Commerce, released state personal income data for the third quarter of 2019.

    For Kansas, personal income in the third quarter of 2019 was $156,547 million, an increase of 6.1 percent from the second quarter. For the nation, the increase was 3.8 percent. (These values, while considering one quarter, are expressed as an annual rate, and are adjusted for seasonality.) For Plains states, the increase was 7.5 percent. (For this data, Plains States are Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The second quarter of the calendar year consists of the months of April, May, and June.)

    The increase in Kansas was seventh-best among the states.

    Earnings in Kansas grew by $2,156 million in 2019 Q3 from Q2, with farm earnings rising by $1,123 million.

    Over the year, from the third quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2019, personal income in Kansas grew by 4.1 percent. For the Plains states the figure is 4.8 percent, and for the nation, 4.5 percent.

    According to BEA, “Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.”

    Also from BEA: “Earnings by place of work is the sum of wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. BEA’s industry estimates are presented on an earnings by place of work basis.”

  • Downtown Wichita jobs rise

    Downtown Wichita jobs rise

    The number of jobs in downtown Wichita rose sharply in 2017.

    New data from United States Census Bureau shows the number of workers in downtown Wichita rose sharply in 2017, while the number of business firms fell slightly.

    Zip code tabulation area 67202. Click for larger.

    From 2016 to 2017, the number of workers in zip code 67202 rose from 13,618 to 14,588, an increase of 970 jobs, or 7.1 percent. (Zip code 67202 is greater downtown Wichita, from the Arkansas River east to Washington, and Kellogg north to Central, roughly.)

    The number of business firms fell from 810 to 802.

    The annual payroll fell from $666,804,000 to $664,564,000, which is 0.3 percent.

    Since 2007, the number of jobs has declined by 9.3 percent, the number of business firms has declined by 9.5 percent, and annual payroll has declined by 4.2 percent.

    The significant increase in jobs in 2017 without a corresponding rise in the count of business firms is likely due in large part to the rapid expansion of two companies, King of Freight and SNT Media. The latter ceased operations in 2018.

    An interactive visualization of this data for all zip codes is available at Visualization: Zip code business patterns.


  • Wichita water plant contract

    Wichita water plant contract

    Wichita should consider discarding the water plant contract in order to salvage its reputation and respect for process.

    This week the Wichita City Council will consider approving a contract with Wichita Water Partners to build a new water treatment plant. It’s a controversial matter that likely played a significant role in the recent mayoral election. Wichita Eagle reporting by Chance Swaim in the story Wichita’s mayor steered multi-million-dollar water plant contract to friends traces through the issues.

    The most important thing is that the city receives a reliable water plant that meets its needs. Currently, the city operates a plant that is the only source of water. It’s described as having outlived its useful life. At any moment over the next several years, the city might have to spend millions to repair a plant it will retire soon.

    It’s also important that the city does not reward the corruption — petty or not — surrounding the awarding of this contract. Mayor Longwell was defeated in his bid for reelection, and that sends a message. But the other corrupt party is being rewarded, as it seems likely the city council will approve the contract with Wichita Water Partners. Its principals sought to influence the mayor by wining and dining. (Literally, they offered to deliver leftover wine to the mayor.) They flattered the mayor with honorifics like Mayor Miracle, Your Eminence, His Highness, Homecoming Queen, Eye Candy, Jethro, and Wine Delivery Guy.

    Besides this, Wichita Water Partners was not honest with the city. The Wichita Eagle reported this: “Rod Young, president of the engineering firm PEC, and Roger McClellan, president of the construction company Wildcat, both acknowledged to The Eagle their relationships with the mayor. They did not disclose those relationships to the city on a form asking about potential conflicts of interest in the water project.” (emphasis added) PEC and Wildcat are part of Wichita Water Partners.

    But the coddling of Longwell worked. After paying the mayor’s $1,000 fee to enter a charity golf tournament, Longwell told them, “I’m going to be super nice to you for a long time.” Longwell switched the basis of awarding the contract, proposing a “design competition.” But only one firm entered the competition, Wichita Water Partners. Jacobs, one of the largest engineering firms, was originally and unanimously preferred by the city’s selection committee. But the company decided not to enter the design competition. The result was only one company participating in the mayor’s “contest.”

    There are important considerations going forward, especially as the city considers spending one billion dollars or more on new projects like a convention center, performing arts center, and other downtown projects:

    • The selection committee had significant concerns regarding Wichita Water Partners and its proposal. Since the city overrode the committee’s strong recommendation, will the recommendation of other similar committees be taken seriously? Will other committees feel their job is important? What about citizen advisory boards?

    • One of the nation’s largest and most respected engineering firms declined to participate in the mayor’s “design contest.” Will the city be able to attract bids from other reputable firms given the way the water plant contract process was changed? Will future bidders fear that the city’s bid process will be changed just before the contract is awarded, after bidders have spent time and money preparing their bids?

    • While Mayor Longwell will be leaving office soon, other city officials who enabled the process — elected and others — are still in place.

    This is not the way to do business, even though the government is not a business. As the Wichita Eagle editorialized: “Longwell steered the council away from its earlier decision on how to award the water plant contract — away from competitive bidding and toward shadier ways of doing business — and that is unacceptable.”

    While Longwell was defeated in an election, the other party to the “shadier ways of doing business” won. That’s bad for the city right now, and bad for the city looking forward.

    Should the city discard the Wichita Water Partners contract this week, as is its right? Undoubtedly, starting the bid process again would add cost and cause further delay. And, given the city’s conduct, would a new bid process attract quality proposals?

    Canceling the contract and starting over is worth deliberation and consideration. Our city’s reputation and respect for process are more important than any single contract, even its largest.

  • Wichita jobs and employment, October 2019

    Wichita jobs and employment, October 2019

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in October 2019, the labor force is up, the number of unemployed persons is down, the unemployment rate is down, and the number of people working is up when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows small increases in labor force and jobs from September.

    Data released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a slowly improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment rose from 301,800 last October to 304,600 this October. That’s an increase of 2,800 jobs, or 0.9 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation grew by 1.4 percent. The unemployment rate in September 2019 was 3.1 percent, down from 3.3 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 447 persons (0.1 percent) in October 2019 from September 2019, the number of unemployed persons fell by 92 (0.9 percent), and the unemployment rate was 3.4 percent, down from 3.5 percent in September. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 300,758 in October from 300,219 the prior month, an increase of 539 persons, or 0.2 percent.

    The following chart of the monthly change in labor force and employment shows the rise in employment and labor force over the last two months.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago a decline in the rate of growth of both employment and labor force. The values are (almost all) growing, but at a slower pace each month until this month and last.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows some months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly job growth for the nation was 1.40 percent, and for the Wichita MSA, 0.93 percent.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer time periods. The change is calculated from the same month one year ago. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

  • Kansas jobs, October 2019

    Kansas jobs, October 2019

    Employment fell and the labor force rose, both by small amounts, in Kansas in October 2019 compared to the prior month. Kansas continues to perform well in year-over-year growth when compared to the nation.

    Data released last week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a mostly improving picture for employment in Kansas for October 2019. (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

    Using seasonally adjusted data, from September 2019 to October 2019, nonfarm employment in Kansas fell by 500, which rounds to 0.0 percent. Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for Ovtober 2019 rose by 18,100 or 1.3 percent over last October. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is nearly the same at 18,600, also 1.3 percent.

    Over the year (October 2018 to October 2019), the Kansas labor force is up by 2,554 (0.2 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with an increase of 0.3 percent over the last month. Non-seasonal data shows an increase of 14,529 (1.0 percent) in the labor force over the year.

    The number of unemployed persons fell from September 2019 to October 2019 by 156, or 0.3 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.1 percent in October, down 0.2 percentage points from one year ago, and down by 0.1 percentage points from August.

    Comparing Kansas to the nation: Using seasonal data, Kansas nonfarm jobs increased by 1.27 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs grew by 1.40 percent. Non seasonal data shows Kansas nonfarm jobs rising by 1.30 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs grew by 1.40 percent.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    In the following chart of showing job changes from the same month one year ago, Kansas is always below the national rate, although for September 2019 Kansas nearly met the national rate. The recent trend shows Kansas doing well compared to the nation.

    In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, Kansas has outperformed the nation in some months, but has fallen slightly recently.

  • Sedgwick County talent attraction

    Sedgwick County talent attraction

    In an index ranking counties in talent attraction, Sedgwick County has not performed well.

    Emsi, a labor market advisor, has released its fourth annual talent attraction scorecard. Data considered by the index includes net migration, overall job growth, skilled job growth, educational attainment, regional competitiveness, and annual openings per capita. These are weighted equally.

    Among the 600 largest counties, Sedgwick County ranked 540, 543, and 537 from 2017 to 2019.

    The interactive map and more information may be found at The Fourth Annual Talent Attraction Scorecard.

    On this map, high-ranking counties are blue, with low-ranking counties red.
  • Wichita consent agenda reform proposed

    Wichita consent agenda reform proposed

    The Wichita city council will consider reforms to the consent agenda.

    Next week the Wichita City Council will consider changes to the form of city council meetings, specifically the consent agenda. 1

    A consent agenda is a group of items — perhaps as many as two dozen or so — that are voted on in bulk with a single vote. If the consent agenda is passed, each individual item on the consent agenda is also considered as passed. An item on a consent agenda will be discussed only if a council member requests the item to be “pulled.” If that is done, the item will be discussed. Then it might be withdrawn, delayed to a future meeting, voted on by itself, or folded back into the consent agenda with the other items. Generally, consent agenda items are considered by the city to be routine and non-controversial, but that is not always the case.

    The city proposes two main changes. First, a draft, or proposed consent agenda will be presented to the mayor and vice mayor one week before a council meeting, with the finalization on Friday. City documents explain:

    A draft consent agenda will be presented to the mayor and vice mayor one week before the scheduled city council meeting. The mayor and vice mayor will make a preliminary designation of the items to be included on the consent agenda. The consent agenda will be considered only a draft until it is endorsed by the city council during its regular Friday agenda review meeting.

    Second, there is a list of items considered appropriate for inclusion on the consent agenda, as presented below.

    In the past, the city has placed major items on the consent agenda, such as authorizing a $2 million contract with the city’s convention and visitors’ bureau. 2

    Notably, this summer the city placed a long-term lease with a proposed airport hotel on the consent agenda. Before the meeting, it was found the contract had many errors. 3 At that time, Wichita Mayor Jeff Longwell expressed frustration with items such as this being placed on the consent agenda and said he would propose changes. 4

    Items appropriate for consent agenda

    From the proposed ordinance:

    In order to provide City staff with additional guidance, the following items are considered appropriate for the consent agenda:

    1. Applications for licenses
    2. Community event requests
    3. Street closures
    4. Preliminary construction estimates
    5. Petitions for public improvements
    6. Design services agreements and supplements to design services agreements
    7. Sale of remnant parcels and property previously designated as surplus
    8. Purchase of property for right-of-way
    9. Second reading ordinances
    10. Property acquisitions
    11. Minutes of advisory boards and commissions
    12. One year agreements, agreement amendments or agreement extensions with a value of $100,000 or less
    13. Grant applications and awards if the local match is less than $100,000
    14. Change orders
    15. Settlement agreements
    16. Establishing public hearing dates for the repair and removal of dangerous structures
    17. Authorizing note and bond sales
    18. Zoning applications that have no protest and are recommended for approval by the DAB and MAPC
    19. Nuisance assessments

    —
    Notes

    1. Wichita City Council agenda packet for November 19, 2019, item V-2. ↩
    2. See, for example, For Wichita, another agenda surprise at https://wichitaliberty.org/wichita-government/wichita-another-agenda-surprise/, Naftzger Park costs up, yet again at https://wichitaliberty.org/wichita-government/naftzger-park-costs-up-yet-again/, In Wichita, spending semi-secret at https://wichitaliberty.org/wichita-government/wichita-spending-semi-secret/, A consultant to help Wichita’s confidence factor at https://wichitaliberty.org/wichita-government/consultant-help-wichita-confidence-factor/, For Wichita City Council, discussion is not wanted at https://wichitaliberty.org/wichita-government/for-wichita-city-council-discussion-is-not-wanted/, In Wichita, a gentle clawback at https://wichitaliberty.org/wichita-government/in-wichita-a-gentle-clawback/, Wichita, again, fails at government transparency at https://wichitaliberty.org/wichita-government/wichita-fails-government-transparency/, and Wichita open records issue buried at https://wichitaliberty.org/open-records/wichita-open-records-issue-buried/. ↩
    3. Lefler, Dion. What’s up with the new airport hotel? Wichita scrambles to correct errors before vote. Wichita Eagle, June 24, 2019. Available at https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article231911503.html. ↩
    4. Lefler, Dion. Longwell proposes changes in city process after airport hotel blunder. Wichita Eagle, June 28, 2019. Available at https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article232088887.html. ↩
  • Wichita personal income grows

    Wichita personal income grows

    Wichita personal income grew at a faster rate in 2018.

    Statistics released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of the United States Department of Commerce, show personal income in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area growing at an increasing rate.

    The figures released today are through calendar year 2018. For that year, personal income in the Wichita MSA was $33,060.9 million, up 6.2 percent from $31,128.2 million the previous year. These are current dollars.

    The figure for 2017 was adjusted from $30,801.3 million to $31,128.2 million.

    In the nation’s metropolitan areas, personal income grew by 5.7 percent.

    Per capita personal income in the Wichita MSA for 2018 was $51,854 in current dollars, up 6.2 percent from $48,818 in 2017. This growth rate ranked at position 26 among 384 metropolitan areas. For the nation, growth was 4.9 percent.

    BEA offers these definitions:

    Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

    Personal income is measured before the deduction of personal income taxes and other personal taxes and is reported in current dollars (no adjustment is made for price changes). Comparisons for different regions and time periods reflect changes in both the price and quantity components of regional personal income.

    The estimate of personal income for the United States is the sum of the state estimates and the estimate for the District of Columbia; it differs slightly from the estimate of personal income in the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) because of differences in coverage, in the methodologies used to prepare the estimates, and in the timing of the availability of source data.

    Per capita personal income is calculated as the total personal income of the residents of a given area divided by the population of the area. In computing per capita personal income, BEA uses Census Bureau mid-year population estimates.