Tag: Elections

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Monday October 11, 2010

    Moran at Wichita Pachyderm: This Friday’s speaker at the Wichita Pachyderm Club is current United States Representative and Republican Party Senate nominee Jerry Moran. As a large audience is expected, please arrive by 11:45 to get your buffet lunch in time for the noon start (the larger meeting room will be used). Cost is $10, which includes lunch.

    Wichita, get control of incentives: Rhonda Holman’s lead editorial in yesterday’s Wichita Eagle urged caution and restraint in Wichita’s use of tax incentives — a welcome message not expected from the Eagle. One conservative wrote to me: “I am stunned to find myself to be largely in agreement with today’s editorial by Rhonda Holman. Wow.” The editorial was critical of past city policy and practice, with Holman referring to special taxing districts as “tax tricks.” On the need for public investment in downtown, she wrote “the city must ensure its use of special taxing districts is strategic, fair, farsighted and defensible.” Whether our present political and bureaucratic leadership can accomplish this is, in my opinion, unlikely.

    Rasmussen key polls from last week: California Senate moves from “leans Democrat” to “toss-up” … Most Americans feel Nobel prizes are politicalHarry Reid’s son trails in race for Nevada governor … Cyber bullying seen equally dangerous as physical bullying.

    Kansas initiative and referendum: The Wichita Eagle takes a look at initiative and referendum. A focus of the article is Secretary of State candidates Chris Biggs and Kris Kobach, which is a little misplaced, as they don’t have a say in whether Kansas has I&R, although they would administer the process and Kobach has made it a campaign issue. Key takeaways: “States with initiatives spend and tax less than states without them.” Politicians of both stripes hate I&R, with Kansas Senate President Steve Morris — a big-spending, big-taxing, liberal Republican — hating the idea, according to the article. Same for Speaker of the Kansas House of Representatives Mike O’Neil, a conservative. Not reported in the article is one of the first things the people may do in states that have I&R: impose term limits on their elected officials, an idea most of the political class hates.

    China Emerges as a Scapegoat in Campaign Ads: The New York Times reports: “With many Americans seized by anxiety about the country’s economic decline, candidates from both political parties have suddenly found a new villain to run against: China. … Democrats and Republicans are blaming one another for allowing the export of jobs to its economic rival.” Kansas fourth district Congressional hopeful Democrat Raj Goyle is mentioned as one of 29 candidates using China as a foil in campaign ads, just in case you thought Goyle’s attacks were novel. But the issue is murky, as the Times notes: “Never mind that there is hardly any consensus as to what exactly constitutes outsourcing and how many of the new overseas jobs would have stayed in American hands.”

    Regulation — Baptists and Bootleggers: “Here is the essence of the theory: durable social regulation evolves when it is demanded by both of two distinctly different groups. ‘Baptists’ point to the moral high ground and give vital and vocal endorsement of laudable public benefits promised by a desired regulation. Baptists flourish when their moral message forms a visible foundation for political action. ‘Bootleggers’ are much less visible but no less vital. Bootleggers, who expect to profit from the very regulatory restrictions desired by Baptists, grease the political machinery with some of their expected proceeds. They are simply in it for the money. The theory’s name draws on colorful tales of states’ efforts to regulate alcoholic beverages by banning Sunday sales at legal outlets. Baptists fervently endorsed such actions on moral grounds. Bootleggers tolerated the actions gleefully because their effect was to limit competition.” From Bruce Yandle, Bootleggers and Baptists in Retrospect. A podcast on the topic is Bruce Yandle on Bootleggers and Baptists.

    Obama fails education: From Three Reasons Obama’s Education Vision Fails at Reason: “While he brags constantly about his Race to the Top initiative, in which states competed for $4 billion to fund innovative programs, he’s spent more than $80 billion in no-strings-attached stimulus funds to maintain the educational status quo.” Obama also killed a school choice program in Washington, and has snuggled up to the teachers unions with a stimulus bill to preserve and add union teacher jobs “despite the fact that there are already more teachers per student than ever.” The status quo describes outgoing Kansas Governor Mark Parkinson and his education “vision.” Not that presumptive incoming governor Sam Brownback is a radical on school reform, however. His education plans are quite tepid and not likely to produce the results Kansas schoolchildren need.

    Wichita Eagle Opinion Line: “If Kansans want lower taxes and less government, why are there so many homeowners’ associations here?” I guess the distinction between government and voluntary action escapes this person.

  • Political site FiveThirtyEight looks at polls, statistics

    The political website FiveThirtyEight provides an innovative look at political forecasting and also supplies useful information about candidates and political districts.

    The site FiveThirtyEight.com was active during the 2008 campaign season. Now it is a feature of the New York Times and can be accessed at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com. The name comes from from the number of electors in the United States electoral college.

    FiveThirtyEight uses a variety of methods to arrive at its results, including polls, where polls are weighted by several factors including recency, sample size, and the polling firm’s track record. Some polls are considered so unreliable that they are not included. The weighted polls results are adjusted by several factors, including a trendline adjustment and likely voter adjustment.

    The data is further adjusted by factors such as the state’s Partisan Voting Index, individual monetary contributions received, and “a variable representing stature, based on the highest elected office that the candidate has held.”

    There are additional steps in the analysis. Finally, the FiveThirtyEight procedures uses simulation, where various factors are considered randomly over a large number of trials.

    When FiveThirtyEight reports its results, it also calculates the probability that a candidate will win the election. It might forecast, for example, that a candidate will finish with 55 percent of the vote, with the probability of winning at 85 percent. Winning, of course, means that the candidate gets at least one more vote than the closest opponent — no margin of victory is implied in the probability.

    The site is also a useful repository of information such as voting record in selected issues, campaign finance, district demographics, and previous election results.

    The FiveThirtyEight site doesn’t say this, but we can easily surmise that the lead that some candidates currently enjoy is the result of not only the policy positions of the candidate and the political landscape of the district, but importantly the product of the campaign the candidates have waged so far. Candidates with leads need to realize this and keep up their efforts.

    FiveThirtyEight forecasts for Kansas

    In Kansas, here are the results FiveThirtyEight forecasts:

    For United States Senate: Democrat Lisa Johnston 31.2 percent; Republican Jerry Moran 66.2 percent. The probability of a Moran win is 100 percent. This forecast has held steady over time.

    For Kansas Governor: Republican Sam Brownback 60.5 percent; Democrat Tom Holland 37.6 percent. Probability of a Brownback victory is 99.9 percent. The vote difference has been narrowing very slightly, but the probability of a Brownback win is still overwhelming.

    For U.S. Congress, District 1: Republican Tim Huelskamp 72.7 percent; Democrat Alan Jilka 24.5 percent. Probability of a Huelskamp win is 100 percent.

    For U.S. Congress, District 2: Democrat Cheryl Hudspeth 35.6 percent; Incumbent Republican Lynn Jenkins 62.8 percent. Probability of a Jenkins win is 100 percent.

    For U.S. Congress, District 3: Democrat Stephene Moore 42.5 percent; Republican Kevin Yoder 55.0 percent. Probability of a Yoder victory is 92.7 percent. This is the only Kansas Congressional district that is remotely competitive, described as “leaning Republican.” Yoder’s margin has been increasing very slightly.

    For U.S. Congress, District 4: Democrat Raj Goyle 36.5 percent; Republican Mike Pompeo 61.0 percent. Probability of a Pompeo victory is 99.9 percent. Pompeo’s lead over Goyle has been growing since the September 17th version of the model for this contest. These results don’t include the SurveyUSA poll of just a few days ago, which showed Pompeo’s lead over Goyle widening.

  • In Kansas fourth, Pompeo ups lead over Goyle

    A new KWCH Television and SurveyUSA poll of candidates for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas shows Republican Mike Pompeo increasing his lead over his primary challenger, Democrat Raj Goyle.

    The new poll shows Pompeo increasing his share of the vote from 50 percent to 53 percent, compared to the previous poll by the same organization 22 days earlier. Goyle’s share remains unchanged at 40 percent.

    Only three percent of the voters are undecided.

    Other results from the poll include Reform party candidate Susan Ducey with two percent, and Libertarian Shawn Smith checking in with two percent as well. Smith replaced David Moffett on the Libertarian Party ticket.

    A recent discussion with a veteran Kansas political reporter reminded me of how unreliable polls can be. About three weeks before the August primary election, this same polling organization showed Goyle slightly trailing his opponent. Goyle won the primary with 80 percent of the vote, with a poll shortly before the election showing Goyle leading 63 percent to 19 percent.

    Kansas fourth district Congressional pollKansas fourth district Congressional poll
  • Kansas elected agency officeholders use websites as campaign billboards

    Kansas state government agencies are headed by a mix of elected and appointed officials. After looking at the websites for agencies headed by elected officials, Kansans would be justified in asking if all are using their agency websites for campaign purposes.

    Of the four agencies (other than the governor and lieutenant governor) that are headed by officials who must seek statewide election, all use their agency’s website to get their name and photograph exposed to the public.

    While it is important for Kansans to know who is heading state government agencies and how to contact them, there is a distinct difference between the website prominence of agency heads who are elected and those who are appointed. Based on research from earlier this year, only about one-third of the websites for agencies with appointed chief executives feature that person on the front page of the website. For agencies with elected chiefs, all feature the elected official, often prominently.

    While adding a photograph or even a video to a website doesn’t appreciably increase the cost of providing the service, this type of self-promotion must be considered a form of campaigning.

    Elected offices

    The page for the Kansas Secretary of State features a large photo of incumbent Chris Biggs, along with a reproduction of his signature. Under the heading “About Us,” the page promotes his “vision and leadership.” Biggs faces a Republican opponent in the general election.

    At the website for Kansas Attorney General, visitors are greeted by the headline “Attorney General Steve Six.” The font page holds a video message from Six and a welcome message. The site carries the message “Copyright 2007 – 2009 Attorney General Steve Six,” which raises the question as to who the website and its content belongs to: Six or the people of Kansas. Six faces a Republican opponent in the general election.

    The office of the Kansas Insurance Commission features the large headline “Kansas Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger” and her photograph. Praeger is running for re-election this year and defeated her Republican opponent in the primary election. She faces no major party challenger in the general election.

    The website for the Kansas State Treasurer features the large headline “Dennis McKinney Kansas State Treasurer” and his photograph. McKinney faces a Republican challenger in the general election.

    Appointed cabinet posts

    The Kansas Governor’s office identifies 15 cabinet posts. Some of these agencies, like the Department of Revenue and Department of Transportation are quite visible, while some are obscure. With one exception, the heads of these agencies are appointed by the governor. They do not run for re-election.

    Each of the 15 cabinet offices has a website. Of these, six have the agency’s commissioner or secretary featured on its front page. One of these six is the lieutenant governor, which differs from the others in that the lieutenant governor is not the head of an agency, and must run for office on a ticket with the gubernatorial candidate.

    At the Kansas Department of Revenue, there is no mention of Secretary Joan Wagnon on the agency’s front page. To find a page about her, readers must click on “About” and then on “Secretary of Revenue.”

    At the Office of the Kansas Securities Commissioner, there is no mention of Commissioner Marc Wilson on the agency’s front page except his mention in a list of news stories. Wilson was appointed to this office on May 25, with an effective date of June 7.

    The Kansas Department of Transportation is one of the state’s most visible agencies. Secretary Deb Miller’s name is not on the agency’s front page except for a mention in a list of news headlines. To get her page, readers must click on “About KDOT,” then “KDOT Leaders,” and then on “Deb Miller.”

    At the Kansas Department of Corrections there is a photograph of Secretary Roger Werholtz with a link to his biography page.

    At the Kansas Department of Health and Environment there is a photograph of Secretary Roderick L. Bremby near a welcome message at the top of the main page for the agency.

    The Kansas Department of Labor agency site makes no mention of Secretary Jim Garner except in a news story near the bottom of the page. Readers must click on the “About Us” link to find a link to Garner’s biography page.

    The Kansas Department of Social and Rehabilitation Services (SRS) agency website has no mention of Secretary Don Jordan on its front page. Readers muct click on “Agency Information,” the “Find out more,” and then “Executive Staff” to find mention of Jordan. That page contains just his name and telephone number. Using the agency’s search feature found no biography page for Jordan.

    The front page for the Kansas Department of Wildlife and Parks makes no mention of Secretary Mike Hayden. Clicking on “Site map,” then “About KDWP,” and then on “Executive Services” found no mention of Hayden. Using the agency’s search function for “Hayden” found a welcome message from him.

    The Adjutant General’s departmental site has a photograph of Maj Gen Tod M. Bunting along with a welcome message on its front page.

    The Kansas Department of Aging makes no mention of Secretary Martin Kennedy on its from page. Readrs must click on “About KDOA” and then on “Meet the Secretary” before finding Kennedy’s biography.

    At the Kansas Department of Commerce, Secretary Bill Thornton is mentioned on the agency’s front page. Users must click on “About us” before finding a link to Thornton’s biography page.

    The Kansas Juvenile Justice Authority agency website features a large photograph of Commissioner J. Russell “Russ” Jennings along with a link to his biography page.

    The Kansas Highway Patrol has no mention of Superintendent Colonel Terry Maple on its front page. Users must click on “About the KHP” and then on “Colonel’s Welcome” to find Maple’s photograph along with a welcome message, but no biography.

    Lieutenant Governor Troy Findley‘s front page holds his photograph and biography.

    The front page for the Kansas Department of Administration makes no mention of Secretary of Administration Duane Goossen. The “Contact Info” page lists many divisions of the agency with contact information and links. The “A – Z Subject Index” does not mention his name.

  • Republican House candidates to speak

    This Friday October 8, 2010, at the Wichita Pachyderm Club, South Central Kansas Republican Candidates for the Kansas House of Representatives will speak. The invited candidates are:

    Benny Boman, District 95
    James Woomack, District 92
    Dan Heflin, District 84
    Jim Howell, District 82

    All are welcome to attend Wichita Pachyderm Club meetings. The program costs $10, which includes a delicious buffet lunch including salad, soup, two main dishes, and ice tea and coffee. The meeting starts at noon, although it’s recommended to arrive fifteen minutes early to get your lunch before the program starts.

    The Wichita Petroleum Club is on the ninth floor of the Bank of America Building at 100 N. Broadway (north side of Douglas between Topeka and Broadway) in Wichita, Kansas (click for a map and directions). You may park in the garage (enter west side of Broadway between Douglas and First Streets) and use the sky walk to enter the Bank of America building. The Petroleum Club will stamp your parking ticket and the fee will be $1.00. Or, there is usually some metered and free street parking nearby.

  • Raj Goyle tax cut votes not exactly as advertised

    In his campaign, Democratic Party candidate for Congress Raj Goyle says he has voted to cut taxes 50 times. Examination of the record shows some genuine votes against taxes, but also examples of voting with the herd, and some votes that actually increase taxes on most Kansans.

    On Goyle’s campaign website, we can read these words: “He is a proven fiscal conservative who voted to cut government spending and lower taxes on middle class families and small businesses every year he has been in office. Other candidates talk about cutting taxes, but Raj has done it. In just four years, he has voted to cut $500 million in wasteful government spending and voted more than 50 times to relieve Kansans of a total of $900 million in taxes.”

    Other material on his site promotes his “record of bipartisanship and fiscal responsibility.” So an examination of his votes against taxes is in order.

    The record of tax cut votes claimed by Goyle is on his campaign website at the page Pompeo distorts Goyle’s record on taxes. Some votes, such as his vote against the statewide sales tax increase that took effect on July 1, are actual votes against increased taxes. To which I say — even though it’s widely believed that this vote was election-year window dressing during a campaign for Congress — thank you.

    Some of the measures Goyle voted for passed nearly unanimously. In these cases, these votes are simply him following the legislative herd. An example is his vote for HB 2264, where on March 14, 2007, he was on the winning side of a 121 to one vote. Another example given was his vote on HB 2004 in 2007, where he was again in the majority of a 117 to three landslide.

    What is more important from a public policy perspective, however, is Goyle’s votes for various tax credit programs. These programs are not tax reductions with broad application. Instead, these programs spend money using the tax system as the vehicle. Unless the legislature votes for offsetting spending cuts — and it hasn’t — other taxpayers must pay more.

    Ironically, the Center for American Progress, where Goyle once worked, has an article that accurately explains how tax expenditures (tax credits) masquerade as tax cuts. See Tax Expenditures 101: What They Are and How They Slip Under the Radar. Other information may be found at The ‘tax expenditure’ solution for our national debt.

    Here are some of the tax credits that Goyle’s campaign website says he voted for:

    Goyle Voted For A Historic Preservation Tax Credit: In 2007, Goyle voted for HB 2405.

    Goyle Voted For An Amendment Regarding Corporate Tax Credit: In 2010, Goyle voted for an amendment that would have allowed a business to receive up to $50,000 in tax credit for complying with smoking regulations

    Goyle Voted Twice For Rural Business Tax Credits: In 2007, Goyle voted twice for HB 2004. The bill continued the annual $2 million Rural Business Development Tax Credits. The bill also created a tax credit for Kansas film production.

    All of these tax credit programs increase taxes on the vast majority of taxpayers in order to convey benefits to a chosen few.

    Finally, some of the tax cuts that Goyle voted for are outright corporate welfare that benefited only one company, on in another case, a narrow range of companies. An example is this item, again from Goyle’s campaign website: “In 2007, Goyle voted for SB 240, which was a bill that established a single-factor corporation income tax apportionment formula option for manufacturers constructing a new facility in Kansas that would cost at least $100 million and would employ at least 100 new employees by December 31, 2009. The bill was designed to help keep Hill’s Pet Nutrition in Kansas.”

    Goyle’s site explains that this measure was necessary to keep this company located in Kansas, and that the company added at least 100 jobs. Perhaps it was necessary, and maybe even wise. But it wasn’t a vote to cut taxes — except for the taxes on one company. This is more properly described as corporate welfare for which other Kansas taxpayers have to pay.

    Besides Goyle, other candidates in the race are Reform Party candidate Susan Ducey, Republican Mike Pompeo, and Libertarian Shawn Smith.

  • ‘Fire Pelosi’ bus in Wichita

    Yesterday the Fire Pelosi Bus Tour stopped in Wichita, primarily to support the candidacy of Republican Mike Pompeo in the race for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas.

    Listen to Pompeo’s remarks:
    [powerpress]

    In his remarks, Pompeo referred to commercials run by his Democratic party opponent Raj Goyle, which he said were “half-truths at best, and intentional misdeception at worst.” The ad uses a fragment of a paragraph — a sentence taken out of context — to distort Pompeo’s position on the role of the federal government in job creation.

    Reporting from the Wichita Eagle, which contains a response from Goyle’s campaign, is at RNC chairman stumps for Pompeo.

  • Sedgwick County Commission candidates to appear

    On Friday October 1, 2010 at the Wichita Pachyderm Club, Republican candidates for the Sedgwick County Commission will speak. The candidates that will appear are:

    Dave Unruh, District 1
    Richard Ranzau, District 4
    Jim Skelton, District 5

    All are welcome to attend Wichita Pachyderm Club meetings. The program costs $10, which includes a delicious buffet lunch including salad, soup, two main dishes, and ice tea and coffee. The meeting starts at noon, although it’s recommended to arrive fifteen minutes early to get your lunch before the program starts.

    The Wichita Petroleum Club is on the ninth floor of the Bank of America Building at 100 N. Broadway (north side of Douglas between Topeka and Broadway) in Wichita, Kansas (click for a map and directions). You may park in the garage (enter west side of Broadway between Douglas and First Streets) and use the sky walk to enter the Bank of America building. The Petroleum Club will stamp your parking ticket and the fee will be $1.00. Or, there is usually some metered and free street parking nearby.

  • Fire Pelosi bus to roll through Wichita

    This Monday (September 27) the “Fire Pelosi 2010 Bus Tour” will roll through Wichita. This nationwide effort is sponsored by the Republican National Committee as a way to attract attention to the policies of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic Party leaders.

    In Wichita, the bus will stop at the Sedgwick County Republican headquarters at 555 N. Woodlawn, just north of Central, at 4:30 pm, although that time is tentative.