Last week’s poll concerning the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas showed Mike Pompeo making big gains to slightly overtake Wink Hartman, with Jean Schodorf and Jim Anderson far behind. A striking feature of that survey was the low number of undecided voters, just eight percent.
Now Schodorf has released a poll with results that, while producing the same ordering of candidates, show a closer race between the top three candidates, with a much larger number of undecided voters. The results, along with the SurveyUSA results from last week, are as follows:
Schodorf Poll SurveyUSA
Pompeo 20% 39%
Hartman 19% 37%
Schodorf 14% 9%
Anderson 2% 6%
Not sure 45% 8%
Schodorf’s poll was conducted on June 18 and 19, while the SurveyUSA study announced last week was conducted from June 21 through 23.
SurveyUSA included 609 respondents who SurveyUSA determined to be likely voters in the August primary election. Its 95 percent certainty interval is 4.1 percent. The Schodorf effort, according to the press release, consisted of 400 personal interviews conducted with a 95% level of confidence. No interval was given for that confidence level.
Jayhawk Consulting Services conducted the poll for the Schodorf campaign.
The SurveyUSA poll starts with a Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by a third party. Respondents are then asked questions to determine if they are likely primary voters. In an email response from candidate Schodorf, she said that her poll included only voters who voted in two of the last three primary elections. This information can be determined from publicly-available voter records.
The press release for the Schodorf campaign poll criticizes the methodology SurveyUSA uses in its polls. According to Jim Yonally, president of the polling firm: “We use well-educated adults, who are experienced callers. We talk to people one on one to get a better feel for what they are thinking. It’s my understanding the media poll uses a recorded voice to ask questions.”
SurveyUSA feels that its automated response polls are accurate and publishes a report card of its results compared to other polling firms. An interview with Jay Leve, SurveyUSA CEO, provides more insight into SurveyUSA and its methods. He would not comment on this specific poll and the criticisms leveled by Schodorf’s pollster.
The Republican Party candidates and their campaign websites are Wichita businessman Jim Anderson, Wichita businessman Wink Hartman, Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo, Latham engineer Paij Rutschman, and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf.
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{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
Wow, push polling by Yonally leads some voters to move from leaning towards a candidate into being “undecided” or “not sure” while it lowers the results for the other three and slightly raises your candidate’s results. Yeah, Jim, your educated adult pollsters are good at what they do – but that doesn’t mean you got a scientific reading on the state of the campaign, not by a long shot.
I like that he called people with a track record in regards to their voting history but that’s the only thing he did better than SurveyUSA – and only calling those who’ve voted 2 out of the last 3 times totally overlooks the newly engaged tea party voters, many of whom freely admit they haven’t voted in the past but plan to this year.
Good observations, anonymous.
It will be interesting to see which poll is correct. It is interesting to see the polls at the beginning of polling for a district, and how they end up.
Zogby, for instance will often be skewed left on National races at the beginning, then tighten up toward the end of the race, in order to show credibility.
Polls, like statistics, are easily manipulated. A pollster with no ties to the state, like Survey USA, seems more likely to be believable, as they have “no skin in the game.”
Candidate funded polls, on the other hand, have a vested interest in showing favor for the one who hired them. IMHO
I am going to LMAO if Jean Jean the name dropping machine wins this primary. Then you will have the choice between two liberal idiots in the general election and ? Could a “darkhorse” Libertarian candidate arrive on the scene and save us all? Stay tuned…….
Schodorf’s poll looks as valid as a $3 bill. I doubt that her name recognition is even up to her alleged poll numbers.
I also doubt Jim Anderson’s 2 percent figure. Jim has been campaigning hard among tea party activitists and has a core level of support that should far exceed the paltry 2% in this poll.
Anderson lacks money and will lag behind the much better funded candidates but he should be somewhere between 5-10% in any valid poll. I also believe that both Pompeo (who is probably leading at the moment IMHO) and Hartman should both be well above 25% with the massive amount of $ that both are spending on broadcast/cable tv and radio spots. This is especially true now that the public is focusing upon the primary races and voting will begin in less than 3 weeks.
If Jean is relying upon Jim Yonally, a former school lobbyist and liberal legislator for her polling, these figures are probably an excercise in self delusion.
Tiahrt’s “internal poll” can be likened to letting the fox be in charge of the chicken coop.
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