United States President

Updated: Presidential data explorer

Updated: Presidential data explorer

Explore the economic record of presidents through the lens of data, with new views and updates. To examine the record of presidents regarding economics, I gathered data from several sources and present it in an interactive visualization. Today the interactive visualization has been updated with current data and several new views. (more…)
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Proceed with the presidential transition

Proceed with the presidential transition

Further delay in starting the transition to the Biden administration harms Americans. Kansas Republican leaders, please get started. I sincerely hope that the Republican federal officeholders who represent me, or who will soon represent me and my state, recognize that the presidential election is over, that Joe Biden won, and they encourage and help with a peaceful and effective transition to the new presidential administration. While none of these leaders -- Senator Pat Roberts, Senator Jerry Moran, Representative Ron Estes, Representative Roger Marshall, Representative-elect Jake LaTurner, and Representative-elect Tracey Mann -- have the power to compel the transition to start,…
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Pandemic’s influence on economy’s path

Pandemic’s influence on economy’s path

No matter who is president, a large challenge lies ahead, says the Federal Reserve. As we wait to learn who will be our president, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank warn us of the challenges we need to overcome. In a statement released today: The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year. Weaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices have been holding down consumer price inflation. Overall financial conditions…
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Presidential data explorer

Presidential data explorer

Explore the economic record of presidents in an interactive visualization. If you're wondering how the records -- economic, mostly -- of presidents compare, here is the presidential data explorer. I've gathered a variety of data from many sources and present it in an interactive visualization. I know that some of the charts are crowded. But you can select which presidents to include, and you can click on one or more names for emphasis. Click here to learn more about the data and access the visualization.
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Trump and Russia sanctions

Trump and Russia sanctions

President Donald J. Trump presents himself as tough on Russia, but he opposed and complained about almost all sanctions. This year, John Bolton published The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir. It covers his time as National Security Advisor for the Trump Administration, which was from April 9, 2018 to September 10, 2019. When the book was published, the editors of the conservative National Review questioned the timing of the book, but wrote: "Bolton is a longtime friend of this publication and we take his honesty as a given. Any credibility contest between him and Donald Trump is…
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Presidential approval

Presidential approval

Explore and compare the approval ratings of presidents in this interactive visualization. I've gathered presidential approval poll data and present it in an interactive visualization. I present data in a table and a timeline. Then, I present several views based on the poll date as the number of days from the start of each presidential term. To learn more about the data and access the interactive visualization, click here.
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During the Trump administration, the economy grew

During the Trump administration, the economy grew

The United States economy has grown since Donald J. Trump became president, until the pandemic. How does the growth compare with the previous administration? This chart holds plots of real gross domestic product (GDP) added over two periods of 12 quarters each. One line starts with the first quarter of 2017, which is the first quarter of the Trump administration. It ends with the fourth quarter of 2019, which is the last quarter that was not affected by the response to the pandemic. The other line starts with the first quarter of 2014 and covers the last 12 quarters of…
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Updated: Presidential data explorer

Updated: Presidential data explorer

Explore the economic record of presidents through the lens of data, with new updates for August. To examine the record of presidents regarding economics, I gathered data from several sources and present it in an interactive visualization. Today the interactive visualization has been updated with jobs and Dow Jones data for the month of August. For each president, data is presented by month, with the first month of each president's term having number one. Presidents that served two full terms have data up to month 96 of their term, while others have fewer months. Data is shown in several views:…
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Libertarian campaign visits Wichita

Libertarian campaign visits Wichita

In Wichita Story, Tim O'Bryhim reports on the visit of the Libertarian Party vice presidential candidate to Wichita: "It is another hot August day in Kansas; a good day to be inside. But a crowd gathers in the (sadly only proverbial) shadow of the Keeper of the Plains to welcome Spike Cohen, the vice-presidential candidate of the third largest political party in the United States of America. If elections were the Olympics, the Libertarian Party would proudly climb on the medals stand every four years with a bronze medal around its neck. But in American politics, third place is almost…
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Added to presidential data explorer: Economic indexes

Added to presidential data explorer: Economic indexes

Explore the economic record of presidents through the lens of two economic indexes. To examine the record of presidents regarding economics, I gathered data from several sources and present it in an interactive visualization. Today, two economic indexes have been added. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia calculates two indexes that track and forecast economic activity in the states and the country as a whole. The coincident index is a measure of current and past economic activity for each state. The average value for the complete year 2007 is given the value 100. The leading index predicts the six-month growth…
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Added to presidential data explorer: Primary Energy Net Imports

Added to presidential data explorer: Primary Energy Net Imports

Explore the economic record of presidents through the lens of energy independence. To examine the record of presidents regarding economics, I gathered data from several sources and present it in an interactive visualization. New to the visualization is Primary Energy Net Imports. When this number is negative, it means the United States is exporting more energy than it imports. This data comes from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Primary energy is "Energy in the form that it is first accounted for in a statistical energy balance, before any transformation to secondary or tertiary forms of energy. For example, coal can…
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Added to presidential data explorer: Mortgage rates

Added to presidential data explorer: Mortgage rates

Explore the economic record of presidents through the lens of mortgage interest rates. To examine the record of presidents regarding economics, I gathered data from several sources and present it in an interactive visualization. New to the visualization is the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the United States, not seasonally adjusted. For each president, data is presented by month, with the first month of each president's term having number one. Presidents that served two full terms have data up to month 96 of their term, while others have fewer months. Data is shown in several views: A table. A timeline…
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Consumer sentiment index by presidential term

Consumer sentiment index by presidential term

For many years the University of Michigan as published a survey of consumers, with one output being a consumer sentiment index. More information about the index can be found here. I've gathered this data and present it in two ways. One is through my interactive visualization Presidential Data Explorer. The second way is via an animated chart, presented below. The horizontal index is the number of months into each presidential term. This animation stops at the first term. Use the animation below, or click here to open in a new window.
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Dow Jones by presidential term

Dow Jones by presidential term

An animated chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for each month of a presidential term. To help evaluate the performance of presidents in growing the economy, here is an animated chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for each month of a presidential term. The performance of the stock market is not the same as the performance of the economy, and the DIA is not a broad measure of the performance of stock markets. Nonetheless, it is often cited. The base data in this chart is the average daily close for all days in a month. Then, I compute…
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Herman Cain, RIP

Today we learned that Herman Cain has died at the age of 74. He had been hospitalized with COVID-19, according to a statement on his website. He was an interesting man. In 2010, as he was rising in national prominence, I interviewed him in his hotel suite in Las Vegas. He ran for president in 2012. For my interview, click on Herman Cain: Conservatives should dream, be united, informed, inspired.
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Presidential data explorer

Presidential data explorer

Explore the economic record of presidents, starting with Harry S Truman. To examine the record of presidents regarding economics, I gathered data from several sources and present it in an interactive visualization. Data includes: Jobs Labor force Unemployment Dow Jones stock market index Gross Domestic Product Inflation For each president, data is presented by month, with the first month of each president's term having number one. Presidents that served two full terms have data up to month 96 of their term, while others have fewer months. A nearby example shows the proportional growth in the Dow for each month of…
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Presidential jobs explorer

Presidential jobs explorer

Explore the jobs creation record of presidents, starting with Harry S Truman. To examine the record of presidents regarding jobs, I gathered data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor and present it in an interactive visualization. The data shown in this visualization is all employees working at nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted. This is the statistic most commonly used when measuring the growth or contraction of employment. For each president, data is presented by month, with the first month of each president's term having number one. Data is shown in several views. For…
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Electoral College math

Electoral College math

In the Electoral College, residents of different states have widely varying influence. When thinking about the desirability of the Electoral College for electing a president, the arithmetic should be considered. I have performed a few calculations, gathering state populations and the number of Electoral College votes. Here are the two extremes: In Wyoming, there are 192,579 people for each Electoral College vote (577,737 / 3). In Texas, the number is 755,312. That's a difference of 3.92, which is a lot, I would say. For Kansas, the number is 485,251. The average value for a state (weighting all states equally) is…
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Kansas Republicans should have their say

Kansas Republicans should have their say

Kansas Republicans should insist on having a voice in choosing the next Republican presidential nominee. The Kansas Republican Party has decided to deny giving rank-and-file party members a voice in choosing its presidential nominee for next year. In a release, the party says : "The Kansas Republican Party will not organize a Caucus for the 2020 election because President Trump is an elected incumbent from the Republican Party." The release gives a reason: "Every time an elected incumbent Republican has run for re-election, except in 1912, the Kansas Republican Party state convention adopted a resolution instructing all delegates to vote…
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