Tag Archives: Kansas Governor

WichitaLiberty.TV: Kansas gubernatorial candidate Rick Kloos

In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: Independent candidate for Kansas governor Rick Kloos joins Bob and Karl to explain why he should be our next governor. View below, or click here to view at YouTube. Episode 210, broadcast September 23, 2018.

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WichitaLiberty.TV: Kansas gubernatorial candidate Jeff Caldwell

In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: Libertarian Party candidate for Kansas governor Jeff Caldwell joins Bob and Karl to explain why he should be our next governor. View below, or click here to view at YouTube. Episode 209, broadcast September 16, 2018.

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WichitaLiberty.TV: Kansas gubernatorial candidate Greg Orman

In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: Independent candidate for Kansas governor Greg Orman joins Bob and Karl to explain why he should be our next governor. View below, or click here to view at YouTube. Episode 208, broadcast September 9, 2018.

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WichitaLiberty.TV: Primary election results, part two

In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: Hosts Karl Peterjohn and Bob Weeks continue reporting on some of the results of the August 7, 2018 primary election in Kansas. View below, or click here to view on YouTube. Episode 206, broadcast August 19, 2018.

Since this episode was recorded, the Sedgwick County Commission District 4 Republican primary manual recount was completed. There were no discrepancies between the results reported after the canvass and the results from the recount. The result is Hugh Nicks 3,438 votes, and Richard Ranzau 3,513 votes.

Ranked-choice voting in Kansas

A look at ranked-choice voting and how it might have worked in the Kansas Republican gubernatorial primary election in August 2018.

Most elections in America utilize plurality voting. Wikipedia explains: “Plurality voting is an electoral system in which each voter is allowed to vote for only one candidate, and the candidate who polls the most among their counterparts (a plurality) is elected. In a system based on single-member districts, it may be called first-past-the-post (FPTP), single-choice voting, simple plurality or relative/simple majority.” 1

Consider the recent primary election for the Republican party nomination for Kansas governor. It was close, with Governor Colyer at 40.513% of the vote and Secretary of State Kris Kobach at 40.622%. With 316,437 votes having been cast, the difference is like one vote out of every 372 votes cast.

In a close election like this, there is intense campaigning, not only among the candidates, but also among their supporters. If there are more than two candidates — there were seven in this contest — campaigning may consist of persuading voters that if you don’t vote for my candidate, you’re just throwing your vote away. Other strategic voting arguments may be made. There is, however, a way to let everyone vote for who they really like.

Simplify just a bit. Suppose there were three candidates: Jim Barnett, Jeff Colyer, and Kris Kobach. On the political landscape. Barnett is a (self-described, I believe) moderate. Kobach is far to the conservative spectrum. Colyer is somewhere between the two, at least according to Kobach supporters, as they regularly slam Colyer for not being conservative enough (whatever that means).

In the pre-election polls Barnett showed much less support than Colyer or Kobach. Also, conventional wisdom was that Barnett and Colyer are more like each other than either is like Kobach.

So, in a regular election, called a plurality election, how do voters decide? No doubt some voters prefer a specific candidate and would not consider voting for anyone else. Other voters may not be as committed, or are willing to express multiple preferences.

As an example, suppose the preferences of voters — the true preference in their heart of hearts, without any thought of strategic voting, just who they really want to be governor — looks like this:

Kobach: 40%
Colyer: 35%
Barnett: 25%
Total: 100%

Who wins this election, if every voter votes their true preference? Kobach.

But remember, Barnett and Colyer are more like each other than they are similar to Kobach. So Colyer supporters are likely to be thinking “Look, our candidate is so different from Kobach, what if just a few Barnett voters had voted for Colyer?” The answer to that question is if 20% (plus one) of the Barnett voters had voted for Colyer, Kobach would lose to Colyer.

This type of strategic voting is what the Colyer campaign recommended. A Colyer television ad advised ““A vote for [Jim Barnett or Ken Selzer] is essentially a vote for Kris Kobach, increasing his chance of victory” 2 Evidently, the Colyer campaign believed that the anti-Kobach vote is larger than the pro-Kobach vote, but is split between two candidates, with neither of them individually having more support than Kobach. (Ignore Ken Selzer for a moment, please.)

So what if you prefer Barnett and really dislike Kobach? Do you vote your true preference, or do you vote strategically to deny Kobach the victory? Will that strategy really work? Why can’t I vote for someone rather than against someone?

Your ballot instructions state “Select one candidate only.” But suppose the instructions were “Rank these candidates in order of preference, with 1 meaning most-preferred.” You might mark your ballot like this:

Barnett: 1
Colyer: 2
Kobach: 3

This voter is saying something like this: “I really like Jim Barnett, but if he doesn’t get a majority of votes, I prefer Jeff Colyer over Kris Kobach.”

This is ranked-choice voting. In the example above, if everyone votes their true preferences without strategic voting, 40% of voters would have marked Kobach as their first preference. But 40% is not a majority, so using ranked-choice voting, here’s what happens:

First, because Barnett has the lowest number of first preferences, he is eliminated from the contest.

Then, the counters look at Barnett voters’ second preferences, either Colyer or Kobach, and assign votes accordingly. In the example ballot above, the voter selected Colyer as his second preference. Therefore, that vote is transferred from Barnett to Colyer. If the voter had ranked Kobach second, the vote would be transferred to Kobach.

In this example, since there are just three candidates, after the Barnett votes are transferred to Colyer or Kobach, the vote-counting is over and there is a winner, or a tie. (If a contest has just two candidates, there is no need for ranked-choice voting, unless there is an alternative to vote for “none of the above.”)

Who would win in this example? If it true that Barnett is more like Colyer than Kobach, it is likely that Barnett voters mostly ranked Colyer as their second preference. So Colyer would have a majority, and wins.

The actual situation in the Kansas Republican gubernatorial primary was more complex, with seven candidates. But ranked-choice voting works the same, although it may take several rounds of counting to determine the winner.

The results of the Republican party primary are nearby. As you can see, the top four candidates received 97.8% of the vote. Were votes for candidates other than Colyer or Kobach wasted votes? What if those who voted for Barnett, Selzer, Kucera, Ruzich, or Tutera had been able to indicate their second preference?

In the Kansas primary there were other major contests with multiple candidates: House of Representatives District 2 for Republicans, House of Representatives District 3 for Democrats, and governor for Republicans and Democrats. Looking forward to the general election, there will be five candidates for governor, one each from the Democratic, Libertarian, and Republican parties, and two independents.


Notes

  1. Wikipedia. Plurality voting. Available at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_voting.
  2. Stephen Koranda. Colyer Ad Says Some Candidates Could Spoil Race for Kansas Governor. Available at http://kansaspublicradio.org/kpr-news/colyer-ad-says-some-candidates-could-spoil-race-kansas-governor.

WichitaLiberty.TV: Primary election results

In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: Hosts Karl Peterjohn and Bob Weeks report on some of the results of the August 7, 2018 primary election in Kansas. View here, or click below to view on YouTube. Episode 205, broadcast August 11, 2018.

WichitaLiberty.TV: Joseph Ashby on Kansas elections

In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: Wichita talk radio pioneer Joseph Ashby shares his thoughts on the upcoming Kansas primary election. We cover the Secretary of State, Governor, and Sedgwick County Commission. View below, or click here to view at YouTube. Episode 204, broadcast August 4, 2018.

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From Pachyderm: Kansas Governor Dr. Jeff Colyer

From the Wichita Pachyderm Club: Kansas Governor Dr. Jeff Colyer, who is also Candidate for Kansas Governor. This is part of a series in which all major Republican candidates will speak. Recorded May 18, 2018.

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WichitaLiberty.TV: Kansas Governor Dr. Jeff Colyer

In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: Kansas Governor Dr. Jeff Colyer is a candidate for the Republican Party nomination for Kansas Governor. He joins Bob and Karl to make the case as to why he should continue to be our governor. View below, or click here to view at YouTube. Episode 197, broadcast May 19, 2018.

This is part of a series of appearances by gubernatorial candidates for 2018. We hope that all major candidates, of all parties as well as independents, will accept our invitation. The filing deadline is June 1, the primary election is August 7, and the general election is November 6.

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From Pachyderm: Kris Kobach, Candidate for Kansas Governor

From the Wichita Pachyderm Club: Kris Kobach, Kansas Secretary of State and Candidate for Kansas Governor. This is part of a series in which all major Republican candidates will speak. Recorded May 11, 2018.

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WichitaLiberty.TV: Kansas Gubernatorial Candidate Kris Kobach

In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach is a candidate for the Republican Party nomination for Kansas Governor. He joins Bob and Karl to make the case as to why he should be our next governor. View below, or click here to view at YouTube. Episode 196, broadcast May 12, 2018.

This is part of a series of appearances by gubernatorial candidates for 2018. We hope that all major candidates, of all parties as well as independents, will accept our invitation. The filing deadline is June 1, the primary election is August 7, and the general election is November 6.

Shownotes

From Pachyderm: Ken Selzer, Candidate for Kansas Governor

From the Wichita Pachyderm Club: Ken Selzer, Kansas Insurance Commissioner and candidate for Kansas Governor. This is part of a series in which all major Republican candidates will speak. Recorded May 4, 2018.

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From Pachyderm: Jim Barnett, Candidate for Kansas Governor

From the Wichita Pachyderm Club: Dr. Jim Barnett, candidate for Kansas Governor. This is part of a series in which all major Republican candidates will speak. Recorded April 20, 2018.

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From Pachyderm: Can Wichita Elect a Governor?

From the Wichita Pachyderm Club: Dr. Russell Arben Fox, who is Professor of Political Science at Friends University. His topic was “Can Wichita Elect a Governor? Musings on the Kansas Political Landscape.”

This is an audio presentation. The accompanying slides are available here. Recorded on March 9, 2018 before a live audience at the Wichita Pachyderm Club.

WichitaLiberty.TV: What Was Really the Matter with the Kansas Tax Plan

In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: Dave Trabert of Kansas Policy Institute joins Bob and Karl to discuss his new book What Was Really the Matter with the Kansas Tax Plan –- The Undoing of a Good Idea. View below, or click here to view at YouTube. Episode 186, broadcast March 3, 2018.

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What Was Really the Matter with the Kansas Tax Plan

From Kansas Policy Institute.

What Was Really the Matter with the Kansas Tax Plan

New Book Outlines Tax Lessons from Kansas “Experiment”

Tax relief opponents have repeatedly pointed to the 2012 Kansas tax plan as their primary example of why tax cuts do not work. But, other states like North Carolina, Indiana, and Tennessee contemporaneously, and successfully, cut taxes. What was different about the Kansas experience?

The answer to that question is multi-dimensional according to a new book from Kansas Policy Institute, entitled What Was Really the Matter with the Kansas Tax Plan — The Undoing of a Good Idea. The book covers the six years between the conception of Brownback’s tax cuts in 2011, the tax package being signed into law in 2012 and later repealed with the largest tax hike in state history in 2017. It documents the many mistakes that occurred, a toxic political undercurrent, and several unrelated economic circumstances that negatively impacted the budget and multiple misconceptions along the way.

Author and KPI president Dave Trabert says, “Much of what went wrong was avoidable. We hope citizens and legislators across the nation can learn from the mistakes made in Kansas as they strive to create the best path forward for everyone to achieve prosperity with lower taxes.”

The final chapter of the book is “Lessons Learned” and includes these big lessons:

  1. Don’t cut revenue and increase spending.
  2. Explain why tax relief is necessary (i.e., what are the consequences of not reducing the tax burden).
  3. Develop a comprehensive plan to balance the budget on less tax revenue, with room for the unpredictable but inevitable misfortunes (like plummeting oil and farm commodity prices).
  4. Have the right systems in place, including performance-based budgeting and a reliable revenue estimating process.

To ensure that lawmakers have this information as they work in statehouses around the country, nearly 8,000 complimentary copies are being distributed to every state legislator across the country in partnership with The Heartland Institute.

Danedri Herbert, an experienced journalist currently writing for the online publication “The Sentinel,” co-authored the book and former U.S. Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma wrote the Foreword. Coburn writes, “This is a very important book, not only for state and national legislators who try to represent citizens instead of special interests, but also for taxing and spending watchdogs in the press and those involved with good government citizen activist groups.”

What Was Really the Matter with the Kansas Tax Plan is published by Jameson Books, Inc. and copies will be available on Amazon.

Trabert concludes, “Kansas could have successfully cut taxes as other states have done. The undoing of a very good idea—allowing citizens to keep more of their hard-earned money—gets to the crux of the serious state and national challenges we face: policy takes a back seat to politics. The efforts of many elected officials are not on solving problems in ways that create the best path forward for all Americans to achieve prosperity, but on maintaining and consolidating power.”

WichitaLiberty.TV: Kansas Gubernatorial Candidate Dr. Jim Barnett

In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: Dr. Jim Barnett is a candidate for the Republican Party nomination for Kansas Governor. He joins Bob Weeks to make the case as to why he should be our next governor. View below, or click here to view at YouTube. Episode 185, broadcast February 24, 2018.

This is the first in a series of appearances by gubernatorial candidates for 2018. We hope that all major candidates, of all parties as well as independents, will accept our invitation. The filing deadline is June 1, the primary election is August 7, and the general election is November 6.

Shownotes

WichitaLiberty.TV: Danedri Herbert, Editor of The Sentinel

In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: The Sentinel’s Danedri Herbert joins Bob Weeks to discuss the upcoming gubernatorial debate, the Kansas Legislature’s website and transparency, and accountability in government. View below, or click here to view at YouTube. Episode 184, broadcast February 17, 2018.

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Unemployment in Kansas

New Kansas Governor Jeff Colyer proudly cites the low Kansas unemployment rate, but there is more to the story.

In his recent speech to the legislature, Kansas Governor Jeff Colyer said, “There’s some good news to report here. According to the most recent data, the Kansas unemployment rate is 3.4%. That’s one of the lowest in the country, and the lowest our state has seen in more than seventeen years!”

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor shows changes to Kansas employment. The recent peak of the unemployment rate in Kansas was in 2009, when the rate reached 7.3 percent, averaging 6.9 percent for the entire year. In December 2017 it was 3.4 percent, just as the governor said. But since the unemployment rate is a ratio of two numbers, it can change for several reasons, and not all reasons are good news.

As shown in the nearby table, the unemployment rate since 2009 is down, and down a lot. Similarly, the number of unemployed persons is down, too, by nearly half. Good news.

But the number of employed persons has barely changed since 2009, rising by just one percent. At the same time, the labor force has fallen by 2.4 percent. The contracting labor force is the largest factor in the declining Kansas unemployment rate, and that is not good news.

Kansas labor statistics. Click for larger.

Voting to raise taxes in Kansas

Printable tables of voting on legislation that raised taxes in Kansas.

The legislation that implemented tax increases in Kansas in 2017 is SB 30, titled “Concerning taxation; income tax, determination of Kansas adjusted gross income, modifications, rates, itemized deductions and credits; sales and compensating use tax, collection and distribution thereof, STAR bonds.” 1

Important action on this bill took place on June 5 and 6. On the first day, each legislative chamber passed a conference committee report. That’s a version of the bill that’s produced by a committee of three members of each chamber. It resolves differences between the bills passed by each chamber. The report is then sent to each chamber for a vote where no amendments are allowed. This report passed both chambers and was sent to the governor.

The governor vetoed the bill, so each chamber then had a chance to override the governor’s veto with a vote of two-thirds of its members. The override was successful, and SB 30 became law.

For the first vote in the House, which passed with a fairly narrow margin of six votes over what is required, a number of Democrats voted Nay, presumably because they thought the tax increase was not large enough. On the vote to override, all Democrats except one voted in favor of higher taxes, and quite a few Republicans switched their votes from opposition to higher taxes to voting in favor of higher taxes.

In the Senate the vote was more consistent. The first vote passed with 26 votes. The second vote, which required 27 votes to be successful, achieved exactly that number, as one Republican senator switched to vote in favor of higher taxes.

In the downloadable and printable pdf tables, notable votes are indicated. For vote 2, the override vote which passed the bill into law, Republican votes are indicated. Additionally, those members who changed their support of higher taxes from vote 1 to vote 2 are indicated. For House of Representatives votes, click here. For an abridged version that prints on one page, click here.

For Senate votes, click here.

To find who represents you in the Kansas Legislature and other offices, use Kansas Voter View, specifically this form.

Of note, the two votes mentioned above are not the only votes on SB 30. The bill started its legislative journey as a bill titled “An act concerning sales taxation; relating to the Kansas retailers’ sales tax act.” Later all language in the bill was deleted and an entirely new bill was created, although it retained the designation SB 30. Votes taken before that time are not relevant to the final purpose of the bill.


Notes

  1. Kansas Legislature, SB 30. Available at http://www.kslegislature.org/li/b2017_18/measures/sb30/.