Voice For Liberty

Tag: Featured

  • Questions for Mayor Jeff Longwell

    Questions for Mayor Jeff Longwell

    Wichita Mayor Jeff Longwell urges Wichitans to reach out to him with questions through email and social media.

    I’ve posed a few questions to Wichita Mayor Jeff Longwell on Facebook, usually tagging both his personal profile and campaign page. But he hasn’t answered any, despite urging citizens to contact him. Here are some recent questions:

    October 17
    A question for Mayor Jeff Longwell and Mayor Jeff Longwell for Reelection:

    Mr. Mayor, the city may be looking at several large investments soon, like a convention center or performing arts center. How can you assure us that your influence over these items can’t be bought with a few gifts and eerily flattering emails?

    —

    October 18
    Mayor Jeff Longwell, I have a question regarding the use of cash as an economic development incentive. You’ve said that the city does not, and will not, give cash as an economic development incentive.

    Here’s a passage from December 2017 regarding the Spirit Aerosystems expansion in Wichita. Specifically, this is from the Memorandum of Understanding for Project Eclipse, Section I.B. It was contained within the agenda packet for Wichita City Council meeting for December 12, 2017.

    “The COUNTY participation of $7 million US is anticipated to be available cash; the CITY participation would consist of cash in the amount of $3 million US, forgiveness of $3.5 million US in future COMPANY payments associated with the CAPITAL COMPONENT and an agreement to make additional capital improvements relating to the WATER AGREEMENT in an approximate cost of $1 million US.”

    Am I reading this correctly: The city gave Spirit $3 million cash, and forgave a debt of $3.5 million?

    Can you tell us how this is different from using cash as an economic development incentive?

    —

    October 21, 2019
    A question for Mayor Jeff Longwell and Mayor Jeff Longwell for Reelection:

    Where do we go to find the city’s checkbook spending? Posting this elementary and fundamental data is something that almost every governmental jurisdiction mastered years ago.

    I ask because you have said you champion transparency, but I can’t find this data on the city’s website.

    —

    October 22, 2019
    A question for Mayor Jeff Longwell and Mayor Jeff Longwell for Reelection:

    Earlier this month the Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University issued this forecast for Wichita:

    “For 2020, growth is expected to be more modest, as the Wichita economy is projected to add approximately 1,600 new jobs and grow 0.5 percent.”

    Do you agree with this forecast, and if yes, how do we reconcile this with your desire to “keep the momentum going?”

    —

    October 23, 2019
    A question for Mayor Jeff Longwell and Mayor Jeff Longwell for Reelection:

    Last night during the debate on KAKE, you said, “We have a diversified economy now that’s not just centered on aviation, although aviation is still important to us.”

    One way to measure the diversification or concentration of an industry in a local economy is location quotients. These are calculated and provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since 2014, the concentration of employment in NAICS code 3364, aerospace product and parts manufacturing, hasn’t changed much. Can you tell us the basis of your claim that the Wichita economy is diversifying?

    More about this topic is at:
    Wichita aerospace manufacturing concentration

    —

    October 30, 2019
    A question for Mayor Jeff Longwell and Mayor Jeff Longwell for Reelection:

    There was unusual interest in Michigan about the Wichita airport contract decision in 2012, and the campaign bank account of Wichita City Council Member Jeff Longwell benefited financially. The Michigan party that was interested in Longwell’s political future was Walbridge, a Michigan-based construction company that partnered with Wichita-based Key Construction to bid for the airport job.

    Here’s an abbreviated timeline of events:

    July 16, 2012: John Rakolta, Chairman and CEO of Walbridge, and Terry Rakolta contribute $1,000 to Jeff Longwell’s campaign for Sedgwick county commission.

    July 17, 2012: Wichita City Council on 5 to 2 vote found Dondlinger Hunt bid to be non-responsive. Key/Walbridge is presumptive contract winner.

    July 20, 2012: Other Walbridge executives contribute $2,250 to Jeff Longwell’s campaign.

    Walbridge made no other political contributions to city council members.

    Mayor Longwell, do you think it is proper to accept campaign contributions that are so closely linked to a decision you made?

  • Wichita jobs and employment, September 2019

    Wichita jobs and employment, September 2019

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in September 2019, the labor force is up, the number of unemployed persons is down, the unemployment rate is down, and the number of people working is up when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows small increases in labor force and jobs from August.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a slowly improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment rose from 300,500 last September to 303,100 this September. That’s an increase of 2,600 jobs, or 0.9 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation grew by 1.4 percent. The unemployment rate in September 2019 was 3.1 percent, down from 3.4 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 398 persons (0.1 percent) in September 2019 from August 2019, the number of unemployed persons fell by 204 (1.9 percent), and the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, unchanged from August. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 300,233 in September from 299,531 the prior month, an increase of 602 persons, or 0.2 percent.

    The following chart of the monthly change in labor force and employment shows the rise in employment and labor force.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago a decline in the rate of growth of both employment and labor force. The values are (almost all) growing, but at a slower pace each month until this month.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows some months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly job growth for the nation was 1.64 percent, and for the Wichita MSA, 1.46 percent.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer time periods. The change is calculated from the same month one year ago. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

  • The cause of the low unemployment rate in Wichita

    The cause of the low unemployment rate in Wichita

    The unemployment rate for Wichita and the nation is nearly equal over the last eight years. Job growth for Wichita, however, has been much slower than the nation, and the labor force for Wichita is actually smaller than in January 2011. This is what has led to a low unemployment rate in Wichita: Slow job growth paired with a declining labor force.

    How does the Wichita metropolitan area compare with others regarding employment, labor force, and unemployment rate? A nearby example shows data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor. It compares the average of all United States metropolitan areas to the Wichita metropolitan area. The chart starts with January 2011, about one and one-half years after the end of the Great Recession, and ends with August 2019, which is the most recent data for this series.

    We observe that the unemployment rate for Wichita and the nation is nearly equal over the time period. Job growth for Wichita, however, has been much slower than the nation, and the labor force for Wichita is actually smaller than in January 2011. This is what has led to a low unemployment rate in Wichita: Slow job growth paired with a declining labor force.

    This illustration came from an interactive visualization I created from BLS data. Click here to learn more and use the visualization.

    Click for larger.
  • Wichita jobs and momentum

    Wichita jobs and momentum

    Given recent data and the CEDBR forecasts, Wichita’s momentum is a slowly growing economy, with the rate of growth declining.

    The Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University provides forecasts for the Wichita economy. In October, CEDBR wrote, “Total nonfarm employment in the Wichita metropolitan area grew 1.2 percent in 2018, with 3,500 new jobs created to bring the area’s employment to 298,600 workers. This was a turnaround after Wichita’s total employment declined by 2,200 jobs in 2017.” 1

    The October update didn’t forecast employment growth for the remainder of the current year, but in May, the report forecast, “Wichita’s employment expansion is forecast to continue in 2019 with 0.9 percent employment growth, adding more than 2,700 new jobs to the metropolitan area.” 2

    For the first nine months of 2019, Wichita jobs have grown from 301,600 in January to 302,600 in September, using seasonally adjusted data. That’s an increase of 1,000 jobs, or 0.3 percent. If that rate stays unchanged through the end of the year, Wichita jobs will have grown by about 0.4 percent. Given this data, it seems unlikely that the CEDBR forecast of 0.9 percent will be met.

    For 2020, CEDBR wrote in its October forecast, “For 2020, growth is expected to be more modest, as the Wichita economy is projected to add approximately 1,600 new jobs and grow 0.5 percent.”

    Click for larger.
    The reports mention declining unemployment rates. By itself, the unemployment rate tells us little, as it is the ratio of two numbers, the number of unemployed people divided by the labor force. Wichita’s low rate is mostly due to a declining, then slowly growing, labor force.

    To summarize, job growth in 2018 was 1.2 percent, forecast to be 0.9 percent in 2019 (but unlikely to meet that), and forecast to be 0.5 percent in 2020. (Recall that Wichita lost jobs in 2017.)

    Some candidates for local office in Wichita are campaigning on their record while in office, saying Wichita needs to build on its momentum. Given recent data and the CEDBR forecasts, Wichita’s momentum is a slowly growing economy, with the rate of growth declining.

    —
    Notes

    1. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. Wichita Employment Forecast. October 3, 2019. Available at https://www.cedbr.org/content/2019/eoc/2020-wichita-forecast.pdf. ↩
    2. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. 2019 Wichita Employment Forecast. May 2019. Available at https://www.cedbr.org/content/2019/2019-ict-forecast-may-revision.pdf. ↩
  • From Pachyderm: Dr. Amy Bragg Carey, President of Friends University

    From Pachyderm: Dr. Amy Bragg Carey, President of Friends University

    From the Wichita Pachyderm Club: Dr. Amy Bragg Carey, President of Friends University. Her topic was “The Role of Friends University in Our Community.” Mike Witherspoon provided the introduction. This audio presentation or podcast was recorded on October 25, 2019.

  • From Pachyderm: Alan Cobb, Kansas Chamber of Commerce

    From Pachyderm: Alan Cobb, Kansas Chamber of Commerce

    From the Wichita Pachyderm Club: Alan Cobb, President and Chief Executive officer, Kansas Chamber of Commerce. His topic was “The State of the State Economy: Solutions for Increasing Growth.” This audio presentation or podcast was recorded on October 18, 2019.

  • State and local government employees and payroll

    State and local government employees and payroll

    Looking at the number of government employees in proportion to population, Kansas has many compared to other states, and especially so in education.

    Each year the United States Census Bureau surveys federal, state, and local government civilian employees. I’ve gathered this data and present it in an interactive visualization using several views and supplementary calculations. 1

    The Census Bureau collects both counts of employees and payroll dollars. Comparisons based on the number of employees are useful, bypassing issues such as differing costs of living and salaries in general.

    Click for larger.
    Considering all government functions, Kansas has 69.50 full-time equivalent (FTE) employees per thousand residents in 2018. Only two states and the District of Columbia have more.

    For total elementary and secondary education employment, Kansas has 29.78 such employees (full-time equivalent) per thousand residents. Only two states have more.

    In the following chart of total employees, total elementary and secondary education employees, and total higher education employees, Kansas stands out from its neighbors and the nation. In almost all cases, Kansas has proportionally more government employees, and often by a large margin.

    In this example from the visualization showing Kansas and nearby states, Kansas stands out. Click for larger.

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    Notes

    1. For details and to access the visualization, see here: https://wichitaliberty.org/visualization-state-and-local-government-employment/. ↩
  • Looking at jobs in Wichita

    Looking at jobs in Wichita

    Examining job creation in Wichita as compared to the state and the nation.

    These charts show job changes in Wichita (Wichita MSA, the metropolitan statistical area, as that is the data that is provided monthly), Kansas, and the nation. Each chart shows the percentage, or relative, changes in nonfarm jobs on a common scale, using seasonally adjusted data. The source of data is Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor. These charts are taken from an interactive visualization of this data, which is available here.

    For the chart starting in May 2015, we can see the loss of jobs in Wichita during 2017. The situation improves after that year. Note also that the Wichita and Kansas lines, broadly speaking, show a similar trend, although the Wichita line has more variation. Also, while Wichita lost jobs in 2017, the national economy was strong and was creating jobs. (Click charts for larger versions.)

    In the chart starting in January 2018, we see Wichita mostly keeping up with the pace set by the nation, and for most of the time, doing better than the state.

    In the chart starting in January 2019, Wichita begins by closely tracking the nation, but stumbles behind in the summer. Kansas does better than the nation.

    For the first nine months of 2019, Wichita jobs have grown from 301,600 in January to 302,600 in September. That’s an increase of 1,000 jobs, or 0.3 percent. If that rate stays unchanged through the end of the year, Wichita jobs will have grown by about 0.4 percent.

    Not shown in these charts is that using not seasonally adjusted data, Wichita jobs have grown by 1.9 percent since January 2019. Using not seasonally adjusted data over a period of less than one year is problematic. For the past 12 months, using not seasonally adjusted data, jobs grew by 0.9 percent from September 2018 to September 2019.

    For reference, the Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University forecast Wichita MSA job growth at 0.9 percent for 2019, 1 slowing to 0.5 percent in 2020. 2

    Perhaps the most important chart is the following, which shows job changes starting in 1990. It’s easy to spot the recessions, and also to see that the Wichita economy has higher variability than the state or national economy. Since 1990, the Wichita and national economies were “equal” in terms of job creation as recently as 2009. Before then, if the Wichita economy fell behind, it was able to catch up with the nation. But that hasn’t been the case since the end of the Great Recession in 2009.

    —
    Notes

    1. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. 2019 Wichita Employment Forecast. May 2019. Available at https://www.cedbr.org/content/2019/2019-ict-forecast-may-revision.pdf. ↩
    2. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. Wichita Employment Forecast. October 3, 2019. Available at https://www.cedbr.org/content/2019/eoc/2020-wichita-forecast.pdf. ↩
  • Checking a Jeff Longwell for Mayor political ad

    Checking a Jeff Longwell for Mayor political ad

    An ad from the Jeff Longwell for Mayor Committee contains a false claim.

    An advertisement advocating the re-election of Wichita Mayor Jeff Longwell contains a claim about economic development that is false.

    The ad appears in the October 20, 2019 print edition of the Wichita Eagle. Under the heading “Let’s Set the Record Straight,” we find this item: “Multiple large scale business development projects like the Cargill Downtown Headquarters which created 850+ jobs.”

    Click for larger.

    It’s the use of the word “create” that is false. It’s wrong because Cargill’s headquarters was located in downtown Wichita at the time it announced it would build a new headquarters in another part of downtown Wichita. 1 Whatever the number of jobs, they merely moved from North Main Street to East Douglas Avenue in the same zip code. 2

    It’s possible that if Cargill’s threat to build a new headquarters in another city was genuine, we could say the city and state “retained” these jobs. But using the word “create” to describe these jobs is false. Regarding the retention of these Cargill jobs, voters can decide whether the cost was worthwhile.

    Regarding the cost of retaining Cargill jobs, since Mayor Longwell raised the topic, here is a list of the known subsidies and incentives the city offered to retain the Cargill jobs. 3 As summarized in the agenda packet:

    “In exchange for Cargill’s commitment, the City has negotiated the following:

    • Issue Industrial Revenue Bonds (Letter of Intent approved April 18, 2017) 100% property tax abatement; 5+5 year basis
    • Sales tax exemption
    • Acquisition of a 15 year parking easement for public access to the garage in the evenings and on weekends (estimated cost of $6,500,000)
    • Expedited plan review (50% reduction in time)
    • Reduced permitting fees (50%) (estimated savings of $85,000)
    • Assign a project manager/ombudsman for a single point of contact for the company”

    The Wichita Eagle reported the value of the tax breaks as $13.6 million. 4 More information about these subsidies is here: More Cargill incentives from Wichita detailed.

    The agenda packet for the city council meeting doesn’t mention this, but from the state of Kansas Cargill is likely to receive PEAK benefits. Under this program, the Kansas state withholding tax deducted from Cargill employees’ paychecks will be routed back to Cargill. 5 (Not all; only 95 percent.) Some very rough calculations show that PEAK benefits might be worth some $2 million annually to Cargill. 6

    —
    Notes

    1. Cargill to keep headquarters in Wichita, but new site still unknown. Wichita Eagle. Available at https://www.kansas.com/news/business/article79516092.html. ↩
    2. Cargill selects site for new Wichita headquarters. Wichita Eagle. Available at https://www.kansas.com/news/business/biz-columns-blogs/carrie-rengers/article105193381.html. ↩
    3. City of Wichita. Agenda Packet for July 18, 2017. Approval of Development Agreement with Cargill Meat Solutions Corporation. ↩
    4. Cargill’s job guarantee to city could count 1-day workers as full time. Wichita Eagle. Available at https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article161882968.html. ↩
    5. Weeks, Bob. In Kansas, PEAK has a leak. http://wichitaliberty.org/kansas-government/kansas-peak-leak/. ↩
    6. For the first year of the agreement, Cargill is expected to have 750 or more employees at an average salary of $66,814. That annual salary / 26 pay periods = $2,570 biweekly. For a family with two children (this is just a guess and could be way off), there are two withholding allowances, so $2,570 – ($86.54 x 2) = $2,397. Using the new withholding tables for married workers (another assumption), bi-weekly withholding is $48.17 + 5.7% x ($2,397 – $1,298) = $48.17 + $62.64 = $110.81. That means $2,881 annual withholding, so Cargill’s 95% share is $2,737. For 750 employees, this is an annual subsidy to Cargill of $2,052,750. ↩