Voice For Liberty

Tag: Featured

  • Federal budget summary for 2019

    Federal budget summary for 2019

    Federal revenues for 2019 were up, but spending increased by a larger amount, resulting in a higher deficit.

    The Congressional Budget Office has released its summary for fiscal year 2019, which ended on September 30, 2019. The headline numbers are these:

    In fiscal year 2019, which ended on September 30, the federal budget deficit totaled $984 billion — $205 billion more than the shortfall recorded in 2018. The deficit increased to 4.6 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019, up from 3.8 percent in 2018 and 3.5 percent in 2017. As a result, federal debt held by the public rose to 79.2 percent of GDP, up from 77.4 percent at the end of fiscal year 2018.

    CBO reports that total receipts were up by 4.0 percent over the previous year, but outlays rose by 8.2 percent. A timing factor, however, inflates the outlay figure, as CBO notes: “That increase would have been about $44 billion smaller — resulting in an increase of 7.1 percent — if not for the shift of certain payments from October 2017 to September 2017 because October 1 fell on a weekend.”


    The chart of outlays and receipts provided by CBO expresses these values as a percent of gross domestic product. Federal outlays are now above the long-term average.

    The release page for the report is Monthly Budget Review: Summary for Fiscal Year 2019. It holds a link to the complete report.

  • City comeback bingo

    City comeback bingo

    Wichita has amenities that are promoted as creating an uncommonly superior quality of life here, but many are commonplace across the country.

    A recent graphic appeared on several sites that comments on the efforts of cities and their residents to create distinctive amenities and characteristics. I’ve reproduced the text of the image below, because some of the text is difficult to read due to the busy background. (The image may be seen here.) How much of this is present in Wichita or your city?

    —

    This-City’s-Makin’-A-Comeback Bingo

    Sure to become a favorite of every southern, mid-sized or rust-belt city, this game implores you to explore your city and find out what makes it unique … like every other place.

    10 Brewpubs
    Ramen, Ramen, Ramen!!!
    Axe-throwing bar
    Absurd rent in once-affordable places
    “Crazy” donut recipe
    Many empty lofts
    Cupcake shop
    Regional Banksy
    Instagram wall
    Spinning, crossfit, and yoga
    Bar with “Whiskey” in name
    Barcade
    Restaurant named (Something) & the (Something)
    Tea shops
    Those scooters
    Chicago cows, but it’s a local thing
    One good food truck out of 30
    Quirky, local T-shirt industry
    Unaffordable boutiques
    People telling you how good it “used to be”
    Dueling farmer’s markets
    Empty apartments used for AirBnB
    Vibrant kickball scene
    Unused community garden
    That one band/artist who made it
    Guy with stories about band/artist who made it
    Indie radio station with cult-like following
    Displaced minorities
    Airport that requires connection to somewhere interesting
    Local fat-guy food
    Regional influencer
    Robust private schools for rich white transplants
    Arts district
    Local ice cream shop with “cornbread” and “Earl Gray” flavors

    —

    (I left off a square with foul language and corrected a few misspellings.)

    These things are good to have, although people will disagree on items like scooters and absurd rent, and I suppose an unused community garden is, well, unused.

    But often we hear Wichita’s boosters speak as though these things are unique to Wichita. By having them, they say, Wichita is a leader, and good things such as a flourishing economy will follow.

    But we can’t afford to be lulled into complacency or a celebration of grand achievement when so much data says otherwise:

    We should keep striving to grow our city, its economy, and the prosperity of its residents. What we’ve done, however, hasn’t worked very well, yet most of our leaders think we’re doing fine. With a new mayor, perhaps that will change.

    For more about this and references to other writers on this topic, see Wichita, not that different

  • Updated: Economic indicators in the states

    Updated: Economic indicators in the states

    Economic indicators in the states, an interactive visualization.

    The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia calculates two indexes that track and forecast economic activity in the states and the country as a whole. Values are available through September 2019.

    The coincident index is a measure of current and past economic activity for each state. The leading index predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. Positive values mean the coincident index is expected to rise in the future six months, while negative values mean it is expected to fall. (For more detail, see Visualization: Economic indicators in the states.)

    For Kansas, the coincident index has been on a mostly upward trend over the past year, although it has leveled for the past few months.

    The leading index has been rising, although it fell sharply in September.

    A nearby chart shows index values for the last five years for Kansas, some nearby states, and the United States. You can access the visualization and create your own charts here: Visualization: Economic indicators in the states.

    Click for larger.
  • Quarterly Real GDP in Kansas

    Quarterly Real GDP in Kansas

    Examining changes in GDP and industry contribution in Kansas.

    The interactive visualization Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product by state and industry holds real (inflation-adjusted) GDP data for states and industries. In the visualization, one presentation shows the contribution to a state’s GDP by each industry.

    The nearby example taken from the visualization shows data for Kansas and nearby states, as well as the nation. The industry “Government and government enterprises” contributes a large portion of Kansas GDP, more than any of the illustrated states except Oklahoma. This is consistent with Kansas having many government employees as compared to other states. 1

    Click for larger.

    We see that the industry “Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting’ is prominent in Kansas compared to the nation, although both Iowa and Nebraska are more reliant on this industry. Kansas is roughly equal to the Plains states in this regard. Note that agriculture is volatile.

    In the table, we see the change in GDP calculated in two ways: First, the change from the previous quarter, and then from the same quarter of the previous year. For Kansas, for all industries, we see that for the first quarter of 2019, the change in GDP was -0.27 percent. This is consistent with the revision of that quarter’s GDP growth to -1.1 percent on an annual basis. 2 The second-quarter GDP was better, rising by 0.54 percent, again consistent with the 2.2 percent annual rate recently reported.

    Click for larger.

    For Kansas in 2018, the year-over-year GDP changes for each quarter were 1.09, 2.21, 2.62, and 2.31 percent. For 2019, the quarterly changes have been 0.82 and 0.60 percent, illustrating slower growth in the Kansas economy. This can also be seen in the chart of nonfarm employment changes in Kansas. 3 For the first three months of 2019, the rate of job growth was declining, and then rising in the second quarter.

    —
    Notes

    1. “Looking at the number of government employees in proportion to population, Kansas has many compared to other states, and especially so in education.” Weeks, Bob. State and local government employees and payroll. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/kansas-government/state-and-local-government-employees-and-payroll-through-2018/. ↩
    2. “In the second quarter of 2019, the Kansas economy grew at the annual rate of 2.2 percent, up from a revised -1.1 percent the previous quarter.” Weeks, Bob. Kansas GDP. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/economics/kansas-gdp-2019-q2/. ↩
    3. Weeks, Bob. Kansas jobs, September 2019. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/economics/kansas-jobs-2019-09/. ↩
  • From Pachyderm: Save Century II

    From Pachyderm: Save Century II

    From the Wichita Pachyderm Club: Speakers promoting the saving of the Century II Convention and Performing Arts Center in downtown Wichita. Speakers were, in order of first appearance, Greg Kite, Dean Bradley, and Celeste Bogart Racette. This video was recorded on November 1, 2019. View below, or click here to view at YouTube.

    There is other material on this topic:

  • Kansas GDP

    Kansas GDP

    In the second quarter of 2019, the Kansas economy grew at the annual rate of 2.2 percent, up from a revised -1.1 percent the previous quarter.

    In the second quarter of 2019, the Kansas economy grew at the annual rate of 2.2 percent in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, according to statistics released today by Bureau of Economic Analysis, a division of the United States Department of Commerce. GDP for the quarter was at the annual rate of $172,538 million.

    The Kansas rate of 2.2 percent ranked fifteenth among the states and was higher than the national rate of 2.0 percent. The Plains states grew at the rate of 1.9 percent. (For this data, BEA defines Plains states as Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.)

    Of note, GDP growth for Kansas in the first quarter of 2019 was revised from 3.1 percent to -1.1 percent, indicating a shrinking economy for that quarter. Revisions are common as more complete and more detailed data becomes available. For 2018, Kansas GDP was revised upwards by 0.8 percent to $168,318 in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.

    Over the last ten quarters, Kansas has averaged quarterly growth rates of 0.9 percent in annual terms. For the nation, the rate was 2.5 percent. For the Plains states, it was 1.4 percent.

  • Kansas sees large drop in test scores

    Kansas sees large drop in test scores

    Using demographically-adjusted scores, Kansas falls in state rankings of National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP).

    The U.S. Department of Education, through the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), conducts the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) every other year. Known as “The Nation’s Report Card,” it is “the largest nationally representative and continuing assessment of what America’s students know and can do in various subject areas.”

    The results for 2019 were released last week, and Kansas does not do well. Looking at state rankings, here are the findings based on demographically-adjusted scores.

    Grade 4 math: In 2017, Kansas ranked 16. In 2019, Kansas ranked 30.
    Grade 8 math: In 2017, Kansas ranked 14. In 2019, Kansas ranked 24.
    Grade 4 reading: In 2017, Kansas ranked 20. In 2019, Kansas ranked 34.
    Grade 8 reading: In 2017, Kansas ranked 16. In 2019, Kansas ranked 26.

    The adjusted scores are from the Urban Institute, America’s Gradebook: How Does Your State Stack Up?

    In a compilation by Matthew M. Chingos published in Education Next, the author notes:

    Change is generally more interesting than stability, and there are certainly examples of states moving up and down the rankings between 2017 and 2019. The table below shows the top and bottom five states in terms of their improvement (or decline) in the demographically adjusted rankings across all four NAEP tests. Four of the five states that moved up most in the rankings are in the South, compared to none of those in the bottom (which are otherwise spread across the country).

    Looking at change across all four tests, Kansas had the largest drop in state rankings except for New Hampshire.

  • Longwell: ‘There is no corruption’

    Longwell: ‘There is no corruption’

    Wichita Mayor Jeff Longwell says there is no corruption involving him, but this is only because of loose and sloppy Kansas and Wichita laws.

    In an advertisement in the November 3, 2019 Wichita Eagle, Wichita Mayor Jeff Longwell defended himself against charges of corruption. Referring to a recent investigation by the Sedgwick County District Attorney, the ad states:

    In 2018 and 2017, Bennett found I was 100% compliant. In 2016 he found only one instance where I was $21.33 over the annual $500 threshold allowed for “goods and services” received from local companies.

    Here’s what the District Attorney found in his investigation:

    Given the failure of Kansas Statutes Annotated 75-4301a to define “good or services,” the Mayor explained to an investigator with the Office of the District Attorney that he did not believe a round of golf constituted “goods or services.” He further explained that charitable golf outings where the entire expenditure went to charity (situations where the golf course donated their greens fees to the charity) led him to the conclusion that, because the charity received the entire donation, the golfers (including him) derived no financial benefit. As such, he did not believe it necessary to report these outings on his substantial interest form. 1

    This reasoning by Longwell is hairsplitting to the extreme. What’s important is that Longwell accepted gifts from people he later steered a large city contract to. However large or small the gifts, this is wrong.

    In his conclusion, the District Attorney wrote:

    And while I am confident, having exhaustively researched the issue, that, as an act of entertainment, golf qualifies as “goods or services” under Kansas law, it is also true that Kansas Statutes Annotated 75-4301a, et seq., governing Substantial Interest Form filings, offers little guidance. I am not filing a class B misdemeanor under these facts.

    It seems that sloppy Kansas laws are the problem, along with a mayor willing to exploit that weakness.

    Does the city have any laws or regulations on this matter? Here’s an excerpt from the Wichita city code as passed in 2008 (full section below):

    “[Council members] shall refrain from making decisions involving business associates, customers, clients, friends and competitors.”

    We also have statutory language that reads “business associates, customers, clients, friends and competitors.” But the city attorney, in a question involving former mayor Carl Brewer, felt that these terms are not defined, and therefore the mayor and city council members need not be concerned about compliance with this law. 2

    Today, city hall ethics, at least in the mayor’s chair, have not improved. It’s reasonable to conclude that people who pay the mayor to play in expensive golf tournaments are his friends. People who pay for dinner for the mayor and his wife and describe it as a social gathering (as the district attorney found) are friends. Or, maybe they just want something from the mayor and see an ersatz social relationship as a means to an end. But as we’ve learned recently, the current city attorney says council members “are left to police themselves on that city law,” according to Wichita Eagle reporting. 3

    Is it true, as the mayor’s ad screams in capital letters?

    THERE IS NO CORRUPTION LIKE YOU’VE BEEN LED TO BELIEVE

    There is none, but only because of sloppy Kansas and Wichita laws. But under any commonsense definition, yes, there is corruption. It is not necessary for an act to be illegal to be corrupt; that it is dishonest or fraudulent conduct is enough.

    Should Longwell be re-elected, can we expect reform? I don’t think it’s likely that someone will support laws criminalizing their own past behavior.

    Wichita city code

    Sec. 2.04.050. — Code of ethics for council members.

    Council members occupy positions of public trust. All business transactions of such elected officials dealing in any manner with public funds, either directly or indirectly, must be subject to the scrutiny of public opinion both as to the legality and to the propriety of such transactions. In addition to the matters of pecuniary interest, council members shall refrain from making use of special knowledge or information before it is made available to the general public; shall refrain from making decisions involving business associates, customers, clients, friends and competitors; shall refrain from repeated and continued violation of city council rules; shall refrain from appointing immediate family members, business associates, clients or employees to municipal boards and commissions; shall refrain from influencing the employment of municipal employees; shall refrain from requesting the fixing of traffic tickets and all other municipal code citations; shall refrain from seeking the employment of immediate family members in any municipal operation; shall refrain from using their influence as members of the governing body in attempts to secure contracts, zoning or other favorable municipal action for friends, customers, clients, immediate family members or business associates; and shall comply with all lawful actions, directives and orders of duly constituted municipal officials as such may be issued in the normal and lawful discharge of the duties of these municipal officials.

    Council members shall conduct themselves so as to bring credit upon the city as a whole and so as to set an example of good ethical conduct for all citizens of the community. Council members shall bear in mind at all times their responsibility to the entire electorate, and shall refrain from actions benefiting special groups at the expense of the city as a whole and shall do everything in their power to ensure equal and impartial law enforcement throughout the city at large without respect to race, creed, color or the economic or the social position of individual citizens.

    —
    Notes

    1. District Attorney Bennett’s findings concerning Mayor Jeff Longwell. Available at https://www.sedgwickcounty.org/media/56094/520-pm-oct-17-mayor-longwell-finaldocx.pdf. ↩
    2. Weeks, Bob. City code on ethical conduct in Wichita. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/wichita-government/city-code-on-ethical-conduct-in-wichita/. ↩
    3. Swaim, Chance. Wichita’s mayor steered multi-million-dollar water plant contract to friends. Wichita Eagle, September 29, 2019. Available at https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article234701932.html. ↩
  • From Pachyderm: Save Century II

    From Pachyderm: Save Century II

    From the Wichita Pachyderm Club: Speakers promoting the saving of the Century II convention and performing arts center in downtown Wichita. Speakers were, in order of first appearance, Greg Kite, Dean Bradley, and Celeste Bogart Racette. This audio presentation or podcast was recorded on November 1, 2019.

    There is other material on this topic: