Voice For Liberty

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  • Kansas jobs, May 2020

    Kansas jobs, May 2020

    After falling sharply in April, employment in Kansas rose in May 2020 as the response to the pandemic continued to affect the economy.

    Data released this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effect of the pandemic and the response to it on employment in Kansas for May 2020.

    (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

    Using seasonally adjusted data, from April 2020 to May 2020, nonfarm employment in Kansas rose by 24,200 (1.9 percent). Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for May 2020 fell by 110,100 (7.7 percent) over the same month last year. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is 110,000 (7.7 percent).

    Over the year (May 2019 to May 2020), the Kansas labor force is up by 22,288 (1.5 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with an increase of 1,754 (0.1 percent) over the last month. Non-seasonal data shows an increase of 22,681 (1.5 percent) in the labor force over the year.

    Of note: While the number of jobs and working people rose by large amounts in May, both are still much smaller than before the response to the pandemic.

    The number of unemployed persons fell from April 2020 to May 2020 by 27,933 (16.1 percent). The unemployment rate was 10.0 percent in May, up 6.9 percentage points from one year ago, and down 1.9 percentage points from last month.

    Comparing Kansas to the nation: Using seasonal data, Kansas nonfarm jobs fell by 7.73 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs fell by 11.73 percent. Non-seasonal data shows Kansas nonfarm jobs falling by 7.74 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs fell by 11.76 percent.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, the magnitude of the April and May changes overwhelms the other months. The rise in May employment is much larger than experienced in any other month during the past year.

    In the following chart of showing job changes from the same month one year ago, the April and May figures are much larger than any other.

    The May release contained figures for industry groups. The following chart shows the number of employees in May 2019 and May 2020.

    This chart uses the same data, showing the percent change from last May. Leisure and hospitality rose the most, proportionally, after losing the most in April, again proportionally. Construction showed the smallest proportional loss.

    Photo by Krista Joy Montgomery on Unsplash

  • Quarterly Real GDP in Kansas

    Quarterly Real GDP in Kansas

    Examining changes in GDP and industry contribution in Kansas.

    The interactive visualization Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product by state and industry holds real (inflation-adjusted) GDP data for states and industries. In the visualization, one presentation shows the contribution to a state’s GDP by each industry.

    The nearby example taken from the visualization shows data for Kansas and nearby states, as well as the nation. The industry “Government and government enterprises” contributes a large portion of Kansas GDP, more than any of the illustrated states except Oklahoma. This is consistent with Kansas having many government employees as compared to other states. 1

    Click for larger.

    We see that the industry “Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting’ is prominent in Kansas compared to the nation, although both Iowa and Nebraska are more reliant on this industry. Kansas is roughly equal to the Plains states in this regard. Note that agriculture is volatile.

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    Notes

    1. “Looking at the number of government employees in proportion to population, Kansas has many compared to other states, and especially so in education.” Weeks, Bob. State and local government employees and payroll. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/kansas-government/state-and-local-government-employees-and-payroll-through-2018/. ↩
  • Wichita jobs and employment, April 2020

    Wichita jobs and employment, April 2020

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in April 2020, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is down, all by large amounts, when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows the same trend.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effects of the response to the pandemic in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for April 2020.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment fell from 306,700 last April to 274,400 in April 2020, a loss of 32,300 jobs (10.5 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation fell by 12.9 percent. The unemployment rate in April 2020 was 17.8 percent, up from 3.0 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 15,214 persons (4.8 percent) in April 2020 from March 2020, the number of unemployed persons rose by 50,106 (460.8 percent), and the unemployment rate was 18.3 percent, up from 3.4 percent in March. The number of employed persons not working on farms fell to 272,446 in April from 307,338 the prior month, a decline of 34,892 persons (11.4 percent).

    The following chart of the monthly change in the labor force and employment shows the magnitude of change in April overwhelming other months. Note that the labor force rose.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows the same trend.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly job growth for the nation was 0.23 percent, and for the Wichita MSA, 0.69 percent.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

  • Kansas jobs, April 2020

    Kansas jobs, April 2020

    Employment fell sharply in Kansas in April 2020 as the response to the pandemic unfolded.

    Data released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effect of the pandemic and the response to it on employment in Kansas for April 2020.

    As explained in the March 2020 employment report, the effect of the pandemic was not fully realized in the March statistics because of the time when the data was collected. In Kansas, a stay-at-home order took effect on March 30, so its effect should be captured in the April data.

    (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

    Using seasonally adjusted data, from March 2020 to April 2020, nonfarm employment in Kansas fell by 130,400 (9.2 percent). Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for April 2020 fell by 133,200 (9.3 percent) over the same month last year. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is 134,700 (9.4 percent).

    Over the year (April 2019 to April 2020), the Kansas labor force is up by 14,666 (1.0 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with a decline of 11,661 (0.8 percent) over the last month. Non-seasonal data shows an increase of 22,707 (1.5 percent) in the labor force over the year.

    The number of unemployed persons rose from March 2020 to April 2020 by 125,673 (294.7 percent). The unemployment rate was 11.2 percent in April, up 8.0 percentage points from one year ago, and up 8.4 from last month.

    Comparing Kansas to the nation: Using seasonal data, Kansas nonfarm jobs fell by 9.34 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs fell by 12.92 percent. Non-seasonal data shows Kansas nonfarm jobs falling by 9.41 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs fell by 12.87 percent.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, the magnitude of the April change overwhelms the other months.

    In the following chart of showing job changes from the same month one year ago, the April figures are much larger than any other.

    The April release contained figures for industry groups. The following chart shows the number of employees in April 2019 and April 2020.

    This chart uses the same data, showing the percent change from last April. Leisure and hospitality suffered the most, proportionally. Financial activities showed the smallest proportional loss, followed by government.

  • State government tax collections for 2019

    State government tax collections for 2019

    Kansas state government tax collections rose to $3,443 per person in 2019, an increase of 5.0 percent from 2018.

    Each year the United States Census Bureau collects a summary of taxes collected by each state for 5 broad tax categories and up to 25 tax subcategories. 1 I’ve collected this data and made it available in an interactive visualization. Data is through 2019, released in April.

    For the past two years, Kansas has collected more taxes per resident than our surrounding states. This is counting state taxes only. The primary reason for Kansas overtaking these states is the increase in individual income tax rates, which includes many businesses, even large firms. In 2019, Kansas collected $3,778.5 million in individual income taxes and $486.4 million in corporate income taxes.

    Click here to learn more about the data and access the visualization.

    Click images for larger versions.

    In the following chart showing total tax collections per person over time, Kansas now collects more than our surrounding states.

    This chart shows individual income tax collections only, with Kansas highlighted. The wide swings over the past decade are evident.

    —
    Notes

    1. United States Census Bureau. Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections (STC). Available at https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html. ↩
  • Wichita jobs and employment, March 2020

    Wichita jobs and employment, March 2020

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in March 2020, the labor force is up, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is down, and the number of people working is up when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows increases in labor force and jobs from February, with the unemployment rate unchanged. It is unclear how the pandemic has affected this data.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows an improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for March 2020.

    Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is difficult to assess the meaning of the March data. BLS gathers this data through two survey programs. For employment data derived from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, also known as the payroll survey or the establishment survey and which counts jobs, the estimate is for the pay period that includes the twelfth day of the month. For data from the Current Population Survey, which counts people, the estimate is for the “reference week,” which is usually the week that includes the twelfth day of the month. For the Wichita metropolitan area, here are the dates of some major events that would be expected to affect employment:

    • March 13: President Trump declares a national emergency that began on March 1.
    • March 16: Social distancing guidelines announced for the nation.
    • March 24: Kansas City metro area stay-at-home order takes effect.
    • March 25: Sedgwick County stay-at-home order takes effect.
    • March 30: Kansas stay-at-home order takes effect.

    As noted, the BLS data is collected nearer the start of the month than the end. For Wichita, these events that should affect employment occurred mostly towards the end of the month. There were also these two major events that affected employment in recent months: Spirit Aerosytems announced layoffs (2,796) that started January 22 1, according to news reports, and Textron (875) the month before 2.

    BLS also offered this guidance, and more, for the March data:

    We cannot precisely quantify the effects of the pandemic on the job market in March. However, it is clear that the decrease in employment and hours and the increase in unemployment can be ascribed to the effects of the illness and efforts to contain the virus. It is important to keep in mind that the March survey reference periods for both surveys predated many coronavirus-related business and school closures in the second half of the month. 3

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment rose from 302,800 last March to 307,100 in March 2020. That’s an increase of 4,300 jobs (1.4 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation grew by 1.0 percent. The unemployment rate in March 2020 was 3.5 percent, down from 3.6 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 800 persons (0.3 percent) in March 2020 from February 2020, the number of unemployed persons rose by 95 (0.9 percent), and the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, unchanged from February January. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 307,367 in March from 306,662 the prior month, an increase of 705 persons (0.2 percent).

    The following chart of the monthly change in labor force and employment shows the positive trend in employment and labor force over the last year. In some months the change has been small, but always positive, with one exception.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows a slight decline in the rate of growth of both employment and labor force, but with both still growing.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly job growth for the nation was 1.33 percent, and for the Wichita MSA, 1.56 percent.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

    —
    Notes

    1. https://www.kansasworks.com/ada/mn_warn_dsp.cfm?id=2021 ↩
    2. Textron, Inc. Form 8-K, December 5, 2019. Available at https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/217346/000110465919070378/tm1924597-1_8k.htm. ↩
    3. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Frequently asked questions: The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on The Employment Situation for March 2020. Available at http://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-march-2020.pdf. ↩
  • Kansas jobs, March 2020

    Kansas jobs, March 2020

    Employment fell in Kansas in March 2020 compared to the prior month, but it still higher than last March. It is unclear how the pandemic has affected this data.

    Data released this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a mixed picture for employment in Kansas for March 2020.

    Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is difficult to assess the meaning of the March data. BLS gathers this data through two survey programs. For employment data derived from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, also known as the payroll survey or the establishment survey and which counts jobs, the estimate is for the pay period that includes the twelfth day of the month. For data from the Current Population Survey, which counts people, the estimate is for the “reference week,” which is usually the week that includes the twelfth day of the month. For Kansas, here are the dates of some major events that would be expected to affect employment:

    • March 13: President Trump declares a national emergency that began on March 1.
    • March 16: Social distancing guidelines announced for the nation.
    • March 24: Kansas City metro area stay-at-home order takes effect.
    • March 25: Sedgwick County stay-at-home order takes effect.
    • March 30: Kansas stay-at-home order takes effect.

    As noted, the BLS data is collected nearer the start of the month than the end. For Kansas, these events that should affect employment occurred mostly towards the end of the month. There were also these two major events that affected employment in recent months: Spirit Aerosytems announced layoffs (2,796) that started January 22 1, according to news reports, and Textron (875) the month before 2.

    BLS also offered this guidance, and more, for the March data:

    We cannot precisely quantify the effects of the pandemic on the job market in March. However, it is clear that the decrease in employment and hours and the increase in unemployment can be ascribed to the effects of the illness and efforts to contain the virus. It is important to keep in mind that the March survey reference periods for both surveys predated many coronavirus-related business and school closures in the second half of the month. 3

    The number of initial unemployment claims is a different set of data that provides insight. In Kansas, it was the week ending March 21 that saw the first big jump in initial claims, with 23,925 reported compared to 1,820 the prior week and 1,292 the same time last year. 4

    (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

    Using seasonally adjusted data, from February 2020 to March 2020, nonfarm employment in Kansas fell by 5,900 (0.4 percent). Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for March 2020 rose by 9,700 (0.7 percent) over the same month last year. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is lower at 9,200 (0.7 percent).

    Over the year (March 2019 to March 2020), the Kansas labor force is up by 16,537 (1.1 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with an increase of 1,878 (0.2 percent) over the last month. Non-seasonal data shows an increase of 19,832 (1.3 percent) in the labor force over the year.

    The number of unemployed persons fell from February 2020 to March 2020 by 273 (0.6 percent). The unemployment rate was 3.1 percent in March, down 0.1 percentage points from one year ago, and unchanged from last month.

    Comparing Kansas to the nation: Using seasonal data, Kansas nonfarm jobs increased by 0.68 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs grew by 1.00 percent. Non-seasonal data shows Kansas nonfarm jobs rising by 0.65 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs grew by 0.97 percent.

    The release for March 2020 holds some seasonally adjusted data for manufacturing employment in Kansas as follows (in thousands of jobs):

    Dec 2019: 167.0
    Jan 2020: 168.8
    Feb 2020: 168.4
    March 2020: 168.7

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, Kansas has outperformed the nation in some months. The March figures are notable for their magnitude.

    In the following chart of showing job changes from the same month one year ago, Kansas is always below the national rate. The recent trend shows Kansas doing better until March.

    —
    Notes

    1. https://www.kansasworks.com/ada/mn_warn_dsp.cfm?id=2021 ↩
    2. Textron, Inc. Form 8-K, December 5, 2019. Available at https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/217346/000110465919070378/tm1924597-1_8k.htm. ↩
    3. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Frequently asked questions: The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on The Employment Situation for March 2020. Available at http://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-march-2020.pdf. ↩
    4. Kansas Department of Labor. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Review, Week Ending March 21, 2020 . Available at https://klic.dol.ks.gov/admin/gsipub/htmlarea/uploads/UI%20Weekly%20Review%2003212020.pdf. ↩
  • Metropolitan employment and labor force

    Metropolitan employment and labor force

    A visualization of employment, labor force, and unemployment rate for metropolitan areas, now with data through February 2020.

    How does the Wichita metropolitan area compare with others regarding employment, labor force, and unemployment rate? The Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, has data that provides the answer.

    I’ve gathered data from BLS and present it in an interactive visualization with tables, charts, and a map. Click here to learn more and use the visualization. Below is an example from the visualization.

    Click for larger.
  • Wichita jobs and employment, February 2020

    Wichita jobs and employment, February 2020

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in February 2020, the labor force is up, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is up when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows increases in labor force and jobs from January.

    Data released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a mostly improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment rose from 302,300 last February to 307,000 this February 2020. That’s an increase of 4,700 jobs (1.6 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation grew by 1.6 percent. The unemployment rate in February 2020 was 3.8 percent, up from 3.6 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 1,594 persons (0.5 percent) in February 2020 from January 2020, the number of unemployed persons rose by 192 (1.8 percent), and the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, up from 3.4 percent in January. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 303,935 in February from 302,533 the prior month, an increase of 1,402 persons (0.5 percent).

    A note regarding recent layoffs and COVID-19

    This data is for February 2020. Spirit Aerosytems announced layoffs (2,796) that started January 22 1, according to news reports, and Textron (875) the month before 2. The effect of these layoffs should be realized in these statistics. For employment data derived from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, also known as the payroll survey or the establishment survey, the estimate is for the pay period that includes the twelfth day of the month. For data from the Current Population Survey, which counts people, the estimate is for the “reference week,” which is usually the week that includes the twelfth day of the month. This data was collected well before there was any talk of closing businesses due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The following chart of the monthly change in labor force and employment shows the positive trend in employment and labor force over the last eight months.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows a decline in the rate of growth of both employment and labor force, but with growth returning the past six or seven months.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly job growth for the nation was 1.37 percent, and for the Wichita MSA, 1.81 percent.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

    —
    Notes