Schodorf poll shows her campaign in lead

Yesterday the campaign of Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf released a poll that shows her in the lead in the race for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas.

The candidates and their campaign websites are Wichita businessman Jim Anderson, Wichita businessman Wink Hartman, Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo, Latham engineer Paij Rutschman, and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf.

The poll was conducted on July 22, before the Wichita Eagle editorial board announced its endorsement of Schodorf. It shows her with 24 percent of the vote. Pompeo is in second place with 21 percent, Hartman in third with 16 percent, and Anderson with seven percent.

The question asked of voters, according to Schodorf, is “If the election for congress were today, would you be voting for Jean Schodorf, Jim Anderson, Mike Pompeo, or Wink Hartman”? Candidate names are rotated. The poll question does not included candidate Rutschman.

The 400 poll respondents were selected from those who had voted in the last two primary elections in the fourth district. The campaign says that “This number of interviews produces survey results that are accurate at the 95% level of confidence.” No margin of error was given for this confidence level, but in a conversation with Jim Yonally of Jayhawk Consulting Services, the firm that conducted the poll, he said the sampling error was four percentage points.

That means that Schodorf’s lead of three percentage points is within the margin of sampling error.

As with all polls produced on behalf of a candidate, we need to remember that surveys produced and released by campaigns are just that, and the results would probably not be released by a campaign if the results did not portray the candidate favorably.

Schodorf’s three publicly-released polls could not have turned out better for the candidate. Starting low, each poll has showed her increasing her numbers, until this poll shows her in the lead.

Besides being the first poll showing Schodorf in the lead, her campaign polls have always differed from the independent polls in showing a very high number of undecided voters. Yonally said he believes that his firm’s practice of using human operators to conduct the survey produces more accurate results than do automated polling systems.

The poll also indicates Pompeo’s support increasing, while Hartman’s drops.

KWCH Television will release an independent SurveyUSA poll of the fourth district this week, I am told.

Kansas fourth Congressional district poll resultsKansas fourth Congressional district poll results
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9 thoughts on “Schodorf poll shows her campaign in lead”

  1. Really bad news. Even if this poll did come from her own campaign, it’s clear her campaign is picking up steam and that endorsements–and fighting between Pompeo and Hartman–are helping her. The more time passes before the election, the more momentum shifts to her and the more the electorate views her campaign as the “nice and clean” alternative. I can only hope all the undecideds that her polls tally are not going to break her way.

    I’ll write in Anderson in the general if she wins. If I wanted to vote for a Democrat, I’d vote for Goyle.

  2. The 95% confidence interval for any survey of a large population with 400 respondents is a minimum of +/- 5%. Depending on how the survey is conducted, whether it is weighted, etc., it can be considerably larger.

    People who don’t bother to get the easiest basics right require us to be very cautious about believing anything they say.

  3. I have to believe that the Republican voters are more intelligent than this poll would have us believe.

    Schodorf and her very liberal voting record have to be known to the voters. Primary voters, in an off year like this, tend to be quite knowledgeable.

    Her legislative records show her more liberal than the…liberal on the Democrat ticket! She has a paltry 25% AFP score. Deplorable.

  4. “Schodorf and her very liberal voting record have to be known to the voters. Primary voters, in an off year like this, tend to be quite knowledgeable.”

    Sue C, maybe the sad thing is this is what they want. How did we get so many liberal RINOs in Kansas politics anyway? The voters voted for them. On a related note, I’ll be interested to see if Kyle Amos can unseat RINO Pottorff in the 83rd district primary too.

  5. Also should mention, in addition to my last post, that even if this poll is right and Schodorf is in the lead, it still says only 24% of those voting are liberal. 76% are undecided or voting for those positioning themselves as conservatives. This difference is even more stark when you look at other polls where far fewer voters are undecided and Schodorf’s numbers are in the teens. Most voters ARE rejecting her liberal stance, but the problem is, 4 candidates are splitting the conservative vote. I’ve seen it happen before in another district I was in. The “moderate” won with only 28% of the vote. It shows how much we need a runoff election or Instant Runoff Voting.

  6. Jim Anderson has been endorsed by Linda Tyler of Kansans for Liberty. That says volumes! Jim is going to surprise some people on August 3rd. Live free or die!

  7. Ann H, you are right. John McCain is one of those who only got about 33% of the Republican vote. approx 66% of the others split their vote with Huckabee, Romney etc.

    I think Schodorf is waiting to get that solid 25-30% liberal RINO vote while the majority splits the other 70%. So sad, indeed.

    Schodorf’ poll also shows the constant 5-7% that Anderson gets, thereby splitting the vote on a candidate that “is a long shot” according to someone high up in his campaign.

    Lynda is free to support the candidates of her choice, but it is important to remember that she doesn’t speak for the entire K4L or tea party group, which is pretty much evenly split among the Conservatives for KS-04.

    For example I am supporting Mike Pompeo, and so are several others of us who are considered “leadership” in the Wichita Tea party movement.

    People have to make the decision if they want to “throw away” their vote on Jim Anderson. ( Lynda’s own words in her endorsement statement.)

    Interestingly she is also endorsing Moran, who is NOT the “so-called” tea party choice.

    One thing we all agree on though: Just say NO to Schodorf!

  8. Already voted for Pompeo. I really liked Anderson too, but beating Schodorf, because of her liberal bent, appeals to me. She does not have a clue about fiscal responsibility and agrees with every lobbyist that walks into her door at the Capital. That includes the drug and insurance companies. She has some charm, but charm is not what we are needing in this office.

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