For June 2024, Kansas tax revenue was 3.9 percent higher than June 2023, and 2.4 percent higher than estimated. For the just-completed fiscal year, collections were lower by 1.5 percent than the previous year, and 2.0 percent lower than estimated.
Tax reports from the State of Kansas for June 2024 show tax revenues higher than the same month the prior year and also higher than estimates, both by relatively small amounts.
When reporting on Kansas tax collections, the comparison is usually to the estimated tax collections. Those estimates are revised based on economic conditions. To get a feel for the effects of the Kansas economy and state tax policy, we should compare to the same month the prior year. (The estimated revenue figures are still important because the state bases the budget on them. If the actual revenue is below the estimated revenue, there may not be enough income to pay expenses.)
Table 1 shows June 2024 tax collections for major categories. Individual income taxes were higher than last June by 19.4 percent, while corporate income taxes were lower by 14.6 percent. Retail sales tax fell by 6.7 percent. Overall, collections were 3.9 percent higher than in the same month one year ago. (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)
Of note, on January 1 the statewide sales tax rate on groceries fell to two percent from four percent in 2023.
June is the twelfth month of fiscal year 2024. Table 2 shows collections for this fiscal year and the last at the same point. Collections for this year are lower by 1.5 percent from the same point last year. Since June is the last month of fiscal year 2024, this table also serves as the annual total.
Charts 4a and 4b compare collections to the same month of the previous year.
Kansas tax revenues have underperformed estimates. Table 3 shows the variance between estimated and actual revenue for major tax items for June, while table 4 summarizes the accumulated variance for the fiscal year. Since June is the last month of fiscal year 2024, this table also serves as the annual total.
When the line is above zero in nearby chart 5a, actual revenue was greater than the estimate, and the line is nearly always positive for the past five years or so except for this year.
Chart 5b shows the variance cumulative for each fiscal year. For the current fiscal year, the variance is negative. This differs from recent fiscal years, when variances were positive, and by large amounts. Reporting on January’s figures indicates Governor Kelly is aware of this trend: “Coming short of the estimates for the third month in a row emphasizes that tax cuts must be done in a fiscally responsible way.” See Kelly raises red flag after January tax revenue short of projection for third straight month.
Estimates are important because the legislature uses them to make spending decisions. Beyond that, the variance between actual revenue and the estimate doesn’t have much meaning. (1)The governor has cited positive variances as a sign of economic success, writing in one press release: “Time and again, we have exceeded our estimated tax collections, providing further proof that we can responsibly axe taxes on groceries, retirement, and property for Kansans.”
For the month before that, she said: “Revenues have exceeded estimates for 30 out of the last 31 months — a clear sign that our efforts to make Kansas a place where businesses and families want to call home is paying off.” But this is not the only conclusion to draw. Exceeding estimates just as easily means the estimates are wrong, possibly for reasons other than the inherent difficulties of making estimates. And if the purpose of these estimates is to be accurate, the state is not doing a very good job.
Over the past five or so years, revenues have exceeded estimates, sometimes by large margins. For the current year, however, this has not been the case. Chart 5b shows the cumulative variance for each fiscal year, with a positive number meaning actual collections were greater than estimated. The trend of positive variances starting with fiscal year 2018 is distinct. This chart does not show total collections and does not illustrate the health of the Kansas economy. It simply compares estimates to actuals.
Chart 7a shows the composition of tax revenue for the past year. The first four sources — individual income tax, retail sales tax, corporate income tax, and compensating use tax — account for 93.6 percent of revenue.
The report from Kansas Legislative Research Department should be on on this page. The governor’s press release is Governor Kelly Announces June Total Tax Collections at 2.4% Above the Estimate. I have updated my interactive visualization of Kansas tax revenue with this data. Click here to use it.
References
| ↑1 | The governor has cited positive variances as a sign of economic success, writing in one press release: “Time and again, we have exceeded our estimated tax collections, providing further proof that we can responsibly axe taxes on groceries, retirement, and property for Kansans.” For the month before that, she said: “Revenues have exceeded estimates for 30 out of the last 31 months — a clear sign that our efforts to make Kansas a place where businesses and families want to call home is paying off.” But this is not the only conclusion to draw. Exceeding estimates just as easily means the estimates are wrong, possibly for reasons other than the inherent difficulties of making estimates. And if the purpose of these estimates is to be accurate, the state is not doing a very good job. |
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