Wichita Employment Situation, June 2024

For the Wichita metropolitan area in June, most employment indicators worsened from the prior month. Wichita continues to perform poorly compared to its peers.

Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a declining employment situation in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for June 2024.

Table 1: Comparing June 2024 to the same month of the previous year using not seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force was nearly unchanged, and nonfarm employment rose. The unemployment rate rose from 3.1 percent to 4.0 percent.

Click charts and tables for larger versions.

I asked ChatGPT about this table:

The table provides employment data for the Wichita Metropolitan Area, comparing figures for May and June of 2023 and 2024. Here’s a summary and analysis focusing on June 2024:

Summary of June 2024 Data

• Labor Force: The labor force in June 2024 is 324,261, a slight decrease from June 2023 by 65 people (0.0% change).
• Unemployed Persons: There are 12,839 unemployed people in June 2024, an increase of 2,865 people (28.7% change) compared to June 2023.
• Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is 4.0% in June 2024, up from 3.1% in June 2023, representing a 29.0% increase.
• Nonfarm Employment: Nonfarm employment is at 315,600 in June 2024, an increase of 4,600 jobs (1.5% change) from June 2023.

Analysis

• Labor Force Stability: The labor force remains relatively stable, with negligible changes in size from June 2023 to June 2024. This stability indicates a consistent number of people working or actively seeking work in the area.
• Rise in Unemployment: The significant increase in the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate from June 2023 to June 2024 suggests potential economic challenges, such as layoffs or a slowdown in hiring.
• Growth in Nonfarm Employment: Despite the rise in unemployment, nonfarm employment has grown. This indicates that while some sectors might be shedding jobs or not hiring, others are expanding, leading to an overall increase in job opportunities.
• Economic Implications: The disparity between the rising unemployment rate and increased nonfarm employment could suggest a mismatch between the types of jobs available and the skills or preferences of the unemployed workforce. It may also reflect transitional dynamics in the local economy, where new industries are growing while traditional sectors may be contracting.

Overall, the data highlights a complex economic picture for Wichita in June 2024, with positive growth in employment sectors but also challenges in managing rising unemployment rates.

Table 2: Looking at June 2024 and the previous two months using smoothed seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force fell slightly and the number of employed people also fell slightly. The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percent to 3.4 percent.

I asked ChatGPT about this table:

The table presents employment data for the Wichita Metropolitan Area from April to June 2024, highlighting changes in the labor force, unemployment, and nonfarm employment over these three months.

Summary of June 2024 Data

• Labor Force: In June 2024, the labor force was 312,543, which is a decrease of 438 people (a 0.1% decrease) from May 2024.
• Unemployed Persons: The number of unemployed people increased to 10,865 in June 2024, rising by 459 individuals (4.4% increase) compared to May 2024.
• Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate in June 2024 was 3.4%, up from 3.2% in May 2024, indicating a 6.3% increase over the three months.
• Nonfarm Employment: Nonfarm employment in June 2024 was 312,543, a decrease of 438 jobs (0.1% decrease) from May 2024.

Analysis

• Decline in Labor Force: The labor force has been gradually shrinking over the three months, with a total decrease of 557 people from April to June 2024. This suggests fewer people are available or willing to work, which might be due to various factors like retirements, people leaving the area, or choosing not to participate in the workforce.
• Rising Unemployment: The consistent rise in the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate indicates increasing difficulties in finding jobs, even as the labor force shrinks. This could signal a slowing economy or a mismatch between job seekers’ skills and available jobs.
• Decrease in Nonfarm Employment: The drop in nonfarm employment reflects job losses or reduced hiring in sectors outside of agriculture. This aligns with the rise in unemployment and suggests that fewer job opportunities are available.
• Economic Implications: The overall decline in employment metrics indicates potential economic challenges for Wichita. The rising unemployment rate, coupled with a decreasing labor force and nonfarm employment, suggests the area may be facing economic headwinds, necessitating strategies to stimulate job growth and match skills to market needs.

In summary, the data for June 2024 illustrates a challenging economic environment for Wichita, characterized by a shrinking labor force, increasing unemployment, and declining nonfarm employment.

To learn more about this data and what the employer and household surveys measure, see Visualization: Employment measures. Also, see Counting jobs in Wichita.

Chart 3a, the monthly change in the labor force and employment in Wichita, shows both gains and losses, with a negative trend for the last two months.

As of June 2024, the Wichita MSA had 1,885 (0.6 percent) more jobs than in February 2020, the last full month before the start of the pandemic, and 43,598 (16.2 percent) more jobs than in April 2020, the first month after the beginning of the pandemic. These figures are from the smoothed seasonally adjusted series. The regular seasonally adjusted data is somewhat different, showing a gain of 6,800 jobs (2.2 percent) since before the start of the pandemic, and a gain of 50,100 (18.9 percent) after the pandemic.

Chart 3b, showing changes in labor force and employment from the same month one year ago, shows Wichita having more jobs than the year before in every month, although the number has become smaller and is now essentially zero.

Chart 6a shows changes in employment from the same month of the previous year for Wichita and the nation. The two trendlines share a similar trend, which is slowly declining.

Chart 8 shows the unemployment rate for Wichita and the nation. The rate for Wichita is always lower, but has been rising and is nearly the same as the national rate.

Chart 7 shows employment change for Wichita and a select group of peers over a period of four years, starting just before the pandemic. The metropolitan areas in this chart are near Wichita or that Wichita business leaders visited on learning expeditions. The number of jobs in Wichita has grown only slightly, and is below most of these peers.

Chart 8 shows changes over the month and year. In this measure, like the previous, Wichita is below nearly all of its peers. Of this chart, ChatGPT said:

The table presents employment data for various metropolitan areas in June 2024, focusing on three key metrics: month-over-month percentage change, month-over-month percentage change compounded annually (CAGR), and year-over-year percentage change. Here’s a focused summary and analysis of the data for Wichita, KS, along with a general comparison to other areas:

Wichita, KS Data Summary

• Employment Month-over-Month Percentage Change (MoM): Wichita experienced a slight decrease of 0.1% in employment from the previous month.
• Employment Month-over-Month Percentage Change (CAGR): When compounded annually, this monthly decrease translates to a reduction of 1.7%.
• Employment Year-over-Year Percentage Change (YoY): Compared to June 2023, employment in Wichita decreased by 0.4%.

Analysis for Wichita, KS

• Monthly Decline: The 0.1% monthly decline indicates a small but negative shift in employment, suggesting potential short-term economic challenges or seasonal fluctuations affecting job availability.
• Annualized Trend: The 1.7% annualized decrease reflects a more significant downward trend, indicating that if this monthly rate continues, it could result in substantial job losses over a year. This highlights a need for strategic economic measures to prevent further decline.
• Year-over-Year Reduction: The 0.4% decrease compared to last year suggests that Wichita’s employment situation has deteriorated slightly over the past year, which might point to broader economic issues or specific challenges within key industries.

Comparison with Other Areas

• Positive Performers: Areas like Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR, and Boise City, ID, show strong growth with MoM increases of 0.5% and 0.4%, and YoY growth of 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively. These areas appear to be thriving and experiencing robust employment growth.
• Negative Performers: Cities such as Cedar Rapids, IA, and Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA, show significant declines in employment, with monthly reductions of 0.4% and 0.3%, and annualized rates of -4.5% and -4.0%, indicating deeper economic issues.
• Regional Trends: Many areas, like Kansas City, MO-KS, and Austin-Round Rock, TX, have slight positive monthly growth and healthy YoY increases, indicating stable or improving employment conditions compared to Wichita.

Conclusion

Wichita’s employment situation in June 2024 reflects a slight but concerning decline. The monthly and annualized decreases suggest ongoing challenges that may need to be addressed to avoid further job losses. In contrast, other metropolitan areas show varying degrees of growth or decline, with some experiencing significant improvements and others facing similar challenges to Wichita. To reverse this trend, Wichita may benefit from targeted economic policies and initiatives to stimulate job growth and adapt to changing market conditions.

Charts 4a and 4b show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has only occasionally outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

(For data on all metropolitan areas in the nation, see my interactive visualization Metro area employment and unemployment.)

The link to the archived version of the BLS news release for this month may be found here.