An index of past economic activity for each state, and another index looking forward. Presented in an interactive visualization.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia calculates two indexes that track and forecast economic activity in the states and the country as a whole.
The coincident index is a measure of current and past economic activity for each state.1 This index includes four indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and wages and salaries (adjusted for inflation). July 1992 is given the value 100.
The leading index anticipates the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index.2 In addition to the coincident index, “the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.”
Positive values mean the coincident index is expected to rise in the future six months, while negative values mean it is expected to fall.
I’ve created an interactive visualization of these two indexes. An example appears nearby. Click here to use the visualization. You may select a range of dates and one or more states to include on the chart. Click on a state’s legend color to spotlight it against other states.
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Notes
- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. State Coincident Indexes. https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/indexes/coincident/. ↩
- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. State Leading Indexes. https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/indexes/leading/. ↩