Category Archives: Economics

Updated: Kansas hotel guest tax collections

Kansas hotel guest tax collections presented in an interactive visualization.

Updated with data through January 2019.

Cities and counties in Kansas may levy a transient guest tax collection on hotel guests. It is sometimes called a bed tax or guest tax. The tax is collected as a percentage of total room revenue, not the number of rooms or the rate charged for rooms. While the Kansas Department of Revenue collects the tax, the proceeds are returned to the cities or counties, except for a two percent processing fee. In Wichita the rate is six percent.

Of note, while Wichita is the largest city in Kansas, Overland Park collects the most hotel guest tax. Of the largest markets in Kansas, Wichita is usually one of the lowest-growth cities.

Click here to access the visualization.

Example from the visualization. Click for larger.


Notes

Updated: Metro area employment and unemployment

An interactive visualization of labor force, employment, and unemployment rate for all metropolitan areas in the United States.

Updated with data through January 2019. Click here to learn more about the visualization and to access it.

Example from the visualization, showing Wichita compared to all U.S. metropolitan areas. Click for larger.

Kansas jobs, February 2019

Employment in Kansas shows a seasonal decline for February 2019.

Data released this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a decline in jobs in Kansas for February 2019.

Using seasonally adjusted data, from January 2019 to February 2019, nonfarm employment in Kansas fell by 2,200, which is 0.2 percent. Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for February 2019 rose by 8,800 or 0.6 percent over last February. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is nearly the same at 7,600.

Over the year (February 2018 to February 2019), the Kansas labor force is up by 0.4 percent, with only small changes over the past three months.

The number of unemployed persons rose from January 2019 to February 2019, rising by 301 persons, or 0.0 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in February, down from 3.5 percent from one year ago, and the same as January.

Click charts and tables for larger versions.

The following chart shows the change in nonfarm jobs over the same month one year ago. For the past several years the line for Kansas has been below the line for the nation, meaning jobs were growing slower in Kansas. Recently, however, the gap between the lines is smaller.

Wichita and national jobs

Growth of employment in Wichita compared to the nation.

Overall, since 2001 — roughly the end of the Great Recession — Wichita has been gaining jobs, evidence being its trend line above zero in the nearby chart which shows the change in jobs over the same month one year ago. But the line has not always been above zero, indicating months where the Wichita metropolitan area had fewer jobs than the year before.

Since that time, Wichita’s growth rate has almost always been below the nation’s rate, and by no small amount. The state of Kansas has been lagging behind the nation, too.

Click for larger.

Wichita jobs and employment, January 2019

For the Wichita metropolitan area in January 2019, jobs are up, the labor force is up, and the unemployment rate is unchanged when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows a slowdown in the rate of job growth and a rising unemployment rate.

Data released this week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a mostly improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area, although some areas are not improving.

Click for larger.

Total nonfarm employment rose from 292,900 last January to 297,900 this January. That’s an increase of 5,000 jobs, or 1.7 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, jobs in the nation grew by 2.0 percent.

The unemployment rate in January 2019 was 4.1 percent, unchanged from one year ago.

Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 739 persons (0.2 percent) in January 2019 from December 2018, the number of unemployed persons rose by 769 6.8 percent), and the unemployment rate rose from 3.6 percent to 3.9 percent. The number of employed persons not working on farms fell to 299,090 in January from 299,120 the prior month, a decrease of 30 persons, or 0.0 percent.

BLS is revising some data and presented this monthly release in a slightly different format than usual.

Click charts for larger versions.

Kansas jobs, January 2019

Employment in Kansas continues to grow, but slower than the nation.

Data released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a mostly improving jobs picture for Kansas in January 2019.

Over the year (January 2018 to January 2019), the Kansas labor force is up by 0.7 percent, also rising slightly over the past three months.

The number of unemployed persons rose from December 2018 to January 2019, rising by 931 persons, or 1.9 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in January, down from 3.5 percent from one year ago, but up by 0.1 percentage points from December. This is because the labor force grew by a larger proportion than did workers.

Click charts and tables for larger versions.

The number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for January 2019 rose by 14,300 or 1.0 percent over last January. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is nearly the same at 14,000.

From December 2018 to January 2019, nonfarm employment in Kansas grew by 500, which is 0.04 percent.

Using seasonal data, nonfarm employment in Kansas grew by 0.85 percent from January 2018 to January 2019. Over the same period, job growth in the nation was 1.68 percent.

Kansas GDP

In the third quarter of 2018, the Kansas economy grew at the annual rate of 2.3 percent, down from 4.7 percent the previous quarter.

In the third quarter of 2018, the Kansas economy grew at the annual rate of 2.3 percent in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, according to statistics released today by Bureau of Economic Analysis, a division of the United States Department of Commerce. GDP for the quarter was at the annual rate of $165,415 million.

Kansas real GDP growth through 2018-Q3. Click for larger.
The rate of 2.3 percent ranked thirty-eighth among the states. In the second quarter of 2018, Kansas GDP was seventh-best in the country.

Quarterly GDP growth for states can be volatile, as shown in the nearby chart.

For Kansas, industries that differed markedly from the nation include agriculture, durable goods manufacturing, real estate and rental and leasing, and government and government enterprises.

Sedgwick County job growth exceeds national rate

In the third quarter of 2018, Sedgwick County quarterly job growth exceeded the national rate for the first time in nearly ten years.

Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, show an improving jobs picture for Sedgwick County.

Data from the Bureau’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program show that from September 2017 to September 2018, Sedgwick County gained 5,200 jobs, which is a rate of 1.9 percent, as calculated by BLS. For the nation, growth was 1.6 percent.

While the rate in Sedgwick County for the third quarter of 2018 exceeded the national rate, for the most recent four quarters the average rate for Sedgwick County was 0.85 percent, and 1.55 percent for the nation. This was the first quarter since 2009 in which Sedgwick County job growth outpaced the nation.

Average weekly wages in Sedgwick County increased by 3.8 percent over the year to $880. For the nation, wages rose by 3.3 percent to $1,055.

Click charts for larger versions.

Wichita jobs and employment, December 2018

For the Wichita metropolitan area in December 2018, jobs are up, the labor force is up, and the unemployment rate is down when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows a slowdown in the rate of job growth and a rising unemployment rate.

Data released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a mostly improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.

Total nonfarm employment rose from 296,900 last December to 302,300 this December. That’s an increase of 5,800 jobs, or 2.0 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, jobs in the nation grew by 1.8 percent.

The unemployment rate in December 2018 was 3.4 percent, down from 3.5 percent one year ago.

Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 596 persons (0.2 percent) in December 2018 from November 2018, the number of unemployed persons fell by 394 (3.6 percent), and the unemployment rate rose from 3.5 percent to 3.6 percent. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 299,120 in December from 298,918 the prior month, an increase of 202 persons, or 0.1 percent.

Click charts for larger versions.

Kansas jobs, December 2018

Data released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a mostly improving jobs picture for Kansas in December 2018.

Over the year (December 2017 to December 2018), the Kansas labor force is up by 0.8 percent, also rising slightly over the past three months.

The number of unemployed persons rose from November to December, rising by 686 persons, or 1.4 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.3 percent in December, down from 3.5 percent from one year ago, but up by 0.1 percentage points from November. This is because the labor force grew by a larger proportion than did workers.

Click charts and tables for larger versions.

The number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for December 2018 rose by 20,100 or 1.4 percent over last December. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is nearly the same at 19,900.

From November 2018 to December 2018, nonfarm employment in Kansas grew by 1,100, which is 0.1 percent.

Lawrence (Kansas) Park in Winter. By brent flanders. https://flic.kr/p/7wxm4o.
Click for larger.

Wichita migration not improving

Data from the United States Census Bureau shows that the Wichita metropolitan area has lost many people to domestic migration, and the situation is not improving.

The Wichita metropolitan area population is growing, but at a rate slower than most metro areas. From 2010 to 2017, the Wichita metro area grew in population by 2.3 percent. For all U.S. metro areas, the population growth was 6.5 percent. Of the 382 metropolitan areas, Wichita ranked 245.

Considering just the change from 2016 to 2017, Wichita’s population grew by 0.1 percent, ranking 268 of the 382 metro areas. All U.S. metro areas grew by 0.8 percent over the same period.

For net domestic migration, Wichita experienced a loss of 2.9 percent of its population from 2010 to 2017. This ranked 295 among metro areas. For 2016 to 2017, Wichita lost 0.5 percent, ranking 293, nearly unchanged from the larger earlier period.

This slow population growth and out-migration is happening at the same time Wichita-area leaders tell us that we have great momentum going forward. But the data — domestic migration, employment, gross domestic product, and personal income — don’t support what our leaders tell us.

I get it: We want to be optimistic about our future. But a false optimism is dangerous. It makes us complacent, even proud, when actual accomplishments don’t support that. We may be led to believe that what our leaders are doing is working, when it isn’t working. That is dangerous.

Politicians and bureaucrats can’t be trusted to be frank and truthful about this. They want to be reelected and keep their jobs. Their actions let us know they value their jobs more than the prosperity of Wichitans.

Wichita employment to grow in 2019

Jobs are forecasted to grow in Wichita in 2019, but the forecasted rate is low.

The forecast for Wichita metro area employment in 2019 calls for modest growth of 0.9 percent, according to the Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. 1 This follows growth of 0.8 percent in 2018. 2

Nationally, the economy is expected to continue strong growth. 3

The nearby chart illustrates that since the end of the last recession, job growth in Wichita has been below job growth in the nation as a whole. Generally, job growth in Wichita has been at about half the rate of the nation. In 2017, Wichita lost jobs.

Click for larger.

Of Wichita job growth in 2018, the CEDBR forecast notes, “This marked a return to the level of growth experienced in the Wichita area from 2012 to 2016, after experiencing a contraction in overall employment in 2017.” The average annual rate of job growth for those years in Wichita was 0.83 percent. It was 1.82 percent for the nation, which is 2.2 times the rate for Wichita.

CEDBR also notes, “Wichita’s unemployment rate declined throughout 2018 to a low of 3.5 percent in October 2018, the lowest unemployment rate for the area since 1999.” We should note that this decline is primarily due to a declining labor force in Wichita, rather than robust job growth.


Notes

  1. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. Wichita Employment Forecast. January 8, 2019. Available at http://www.cedbr.org/forecast-blog/forecasts-wichita/1558-economic-outlook-wichita-2019-january-revision.
  2. Employment figures are not available for December 2018, so I use a crude estimate for that month.
  3. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee. December 18-19, 2018. Available at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20181219.htm.

Wichita employment, November 2018

For the Wichita metropolitan area in November 2018, jobs are up, the labor force is up, and the unemployment rate is down, compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows a slowdown in the rate of job growth.

Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a mostly improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.

Total nonfarm employment rose from 296,700 last November to 302,200 this November. That’s an increase of 5,500 jobs, or 1.9 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, jobs in the nation grew by 1.6 percent.

The unemployment rate was 3.2 percent, down from 3.6 percent one year ago.

Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 391 persons (0.1 percent) in November 2018 from October 2018, the number of unemployed persons fell by 8 (0.1 percent), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 298,749 in November from 298,350 the prior month, an increase of 399 persons, or 0.1 percent.

Click charts for larger versions.

Kansas jobs, November 2018

For November 2018, a growing labor force and more employment, but growing more slowly from October.

Data released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows an improving jobs picture for Kansas in November 2018.

Over the year (November 2017 to November 2018), the Kansas labor force is up by 0.6 percent, also rising slightly over the past three months.

The number of unemployed persons fell from October to November, falling by 136 persons, or 0.3 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.2 percent in November, down from 3.5 percent from one year ago, and down from 3.3 percent in October.

The number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for November 2018 rose by 19,700 or 1.4 percent over last November. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is nearly the same at 20,000.

From October 2018 to November 2018, nonfarm employment in Kansas grew by 1,500, which is 0.1 percent.

Click charts and tables for larger versions.

Kansas personal income rises

Kansas personal income grew in the third quarter of 2018, but slower than in most states.

Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of the United States Department of Commerce, released state personal income data for the third quarter of 2018. The press release noted, “State personal income increased 4.0 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2018, an acceleration from the 3.4 percent increase in the second quarter.”

Personal income in Kansas rose at an annual rate of 3.1 percent, while Plains States rose at 3.2 percent. (For this data, Plains States are Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.)

The 3.1 percent rate in Kansas ranked 40th among the states. Over the period covered by this news release, Kansas personal income has grown more slowly than the nation.

According to BEA, “Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.”

Click illustrations for larger versions.

Sedgwick County income and poverty

Census data show Sedgwick County continuing to fall behind the nation in two key measures.

Data released today from the United States Census Bureau through the Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) Program shows Sedgwick County median household income continues to fall farther behind the nation.

In 1989, median household income in Sedgwick County was greater than that for Kansas and the nation. In 2017, however, Sedgwick County has fallen behind both.

In 1989, the all-age poverty rate in Sedgwick County was less than the national rate, but now it is higher.

As can be seen in the nearby charts produced by the Census Bureau’s visualization tool, the trend in economic performance between Sedgwick County and the nation started diverging around the time of the last recession. As time passes, the gap between the two generally grows larger, with Sedgwick County falling farther behind.

Courtesy U.S. Census Bureau. Click for larger.
Courtesy U.S. Census Bureau. Click for larger.

Wichita employment, October 2018

For the Wichita metropolitan area in October 2018, jobs are up, the labor force is up, and the unemployment rate is down, compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows a slowdown in the rate of job growth.

Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a mostly improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.

Total nonfarm employment rose from 296,900 last October to 299,000 this October. That’s an increase of 2,100 jobs, or 0.7 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, jobs in the nation grew by 1.7 percent.

The unemployment rate was 3.3 percent, down from 3.5 percent one year ago.

Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 719 persons (0.2 percent) in October 2018 from September 2018, the number of unemployed persons rose by 283 (2.7 percent), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 298,219 in October from 297,783 the prior month, an increase of 436 persons, or 0.1 percent.

Click charts for larger versions.

Sedgwick County jobs, second quarter 2018

For the second quarter of 2018, the number of jobs in Sedgwick County grew slightly slower than the nation.

Data released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor shows an improving labor picture in Sedgwick County, growing at a rate 80 percent of the nation.

For the second quarter of 2018 there were 12,600 establishments in Sedgwick County employing 250,800 workers. That is an increase in jobs of 1.2 percent from the same time the previous year, a proportional rate which ranked 176 among the nation’s 349 largest counties. For the same period, the national job growth rate was 1.5 percent. (Ranked by employment, Sedgwick County is the 123rd largest county.)

These are figures from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program.

The average weekly wage was $882, an increase of 2.7 percent over the year, that change ranking 204 among the same 349 largest counties. The U.S. average weekly wage was $1,055, increasing by 3.4 percent over the same period.