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One-sentence summary: Jason Furman argues that Donald Trump’s proposed “reciprocal tariffs” are based on flawed economic reasoning and would damage the U.S. economy, worsen global trade relations, and ultimately empower China.
In this opinion piece, economist Jason Furman critiques former President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of “reciprocal tariffs,” a policy aimed at matching other countries’ tariff levels on U.S. goods. Furman argues that the rationale behind this policy is deeply flawed, starting with the misconception that trade deficits are inherently bad and stem from foreign trade barriers. He illustrates this point by likening trade to everyday exchanges, emphasizing that buying more from a partner than one sells is not inherently problematic.
Furman explains that imports benefit American consumers through variety, quality, and affordability, and help domestic companies stay competitive by lowering input costs. He dispels the idea that tariffs influence trade deficits, citing that these imbalances are largely determined by national saving and investment rates. Because the U.S. invests more than it saves, it attracts foreign capital, which in turn drives up imports and creates a trade deficit – a sign of economic strength, not weakness.
Reciprocal tariffs, Furman argues, would reduce both imports and exports, hurt economic growth, and risk inflation and job loss. Even without retaliatory measures from other countries, tariffs would make foreign goods more expensive and reduce foreign demand for American goods by strengthening the dollar. Furman warns that Trump’s approach is not limited to equalizing trade barriers but selectively targets products with higher foreign tariffs, ignoring areas where U.S. tariffs are already higher.
He also critiques Trump’s claims that foreign VATs discriminate against U.S. exports, clarifying that these taxes apply equally to domestic and imported goods in those countries. Furman notes that demanding changes to VAT systems would require countries to alter foundational aspects of their tax codes – a highly unrealistic goal.
The real economic costs are substantial: Trump’s first-term tariff hikes averaged a 1.5-point increase, while 2025 actions have already added another six points, with more expected. These could reduce GDP growth by 0.5 percentage point, raise inflation, and cost households roughly $1,000. Lower-income Americans will feel the burden most, even as potential tax cuts benefit wealthier households. The stock market has already lost $3 trillion since February due to tariff-related uncertainty.
Furman concludes by warning of geopolitical consequences. As the U.S. retreats from global trade, China stands to benefit by deepening its ties with other countries. This shift in trade alliances could pave the way for a broader realignment of global political power, increasingly centered around China.
Furman, Jason. “Opinion | Trump’s Tariffs Make Absolutely No Sense.” The New York Times, 31 Mar. 2025, www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/opinion/trump-tariffs-economy.html.
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Key takeaways:
- Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs are based on a misunderstanding of trade deficits and global economics.
- Trade deficits are more influenced by investment and saving behaviors than by tariffs.
- Imports benefit consumers and support U.S. businesses by providing cheaper inputs and greater product variety.
- Tariffs will likely lead to less trade, higher prices, slower growth, and economic uncertainty.
- Lower-income households will bear more of the costs, while benefits will skew toward wealthier individuals.
- Trump’s approach selectively targets high-tariff goods while ignoring where U.S. tariffs are higher.
- Foreign VATs are not discriminatory; changing them is implausible.
- The policy could diminish the U.S.’s global economic role and strengthen China’s influence.
Most important quotations:
- “Every step in this chain of reasoning is wrong.”
- “Imports are good, not bad.”
- “There is generally no correlation between a country’s tariff levels and its overall trade balance.”
- “Even if other countries don’t retaliate… the situation is still bad.”
- “The enormous increase in business uncertainty that tariffs have engendered means anything could happen.”
- “Lower-income families will pay a higher fraction of their income in tariffs.”
- “Give these countries a choice between economic relations with the United States and with China, they would probably choose the latter in a heartbeat.”
Word count of generated summary: 798
Word count of supplied input: 1,651
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