Russia’s Shadow War Against the West

One-Sentence Summary: Russia has escalated its covert campaign of sabotage and subversion against Europe and the United States, with the GRU (Russia’s military intelligence service) conducting attacks on critical infrastructure, industry, transportation, and government targets, necessitating a more aggressive Western response to deter future aggression.

Russia has intensified its shadow war against the West, complementing its conventional military efforts in Ukraine with a surge in covert attacks. The number of Russian attacks in Europe has grown significantly, nearly tripling between 2023 and 2024, after quadrupling the year before. The GRU is behind many of these operations, acting both directly and through recruited local agents. Attacks have targeted transportation, government facilities, critical infrastructure, and industry, particularly those supporting Ukraine’s defense. Weapons used include explosives, electronic warfare, cyberattacks, and even anchors to cut undersea cables.

Historically, Russia has employed “active measures”-covert influence, disinformation, and sabotage-to weaken adversaries, a strategy that dates back to the Soviet era. Today, its objectives include coercing Western governments into reducing military aid to Ukraine, creating divisions among NATO allies, and undermining democratic institutions. The GRU and affiliated Russian agencies, including the FSB and SVR, have led these efforts, often relying on non-state actors such as criminal organizations and shadowy commercial fleets to conduct sabotage.

The West has largely focused on defensive measures, such as intelligence-sharing and infrastructure hardening, but has failed to impose significant costs on Moscow. The brief argues that NATO and its allies should adopt a more assertive strategy, including intensified sanctions, offensive cyber operations, information warfare targeting Russian populations, and direct action against Russian assets like its shadow fleet. The report warns that without escalating the costs for Russia, these attacks will likely continue, posing an ongoing threat to Europe and the United States.

Seth G. Jones. “Russia’s Shadow War Against the West.” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), March 2025. www.csis.org/analysis/russias-shadow-war-against-west.

Key Takeaways:
– Russia’s covert attacks in Europe tripled between 2023 and 2024, after quadrupling the year before.
– The GRU and other Russian agencies orchestrate sabotage, targeting Western aid to Ukraine.
– Attacks have included undersea cable disruptions, GPS jamming, industrial fires, and assassination attempts.
– Russia exploits criminal groups, shadow fleets, and cyber tools to execute operations.
– Western defenses, while improving, have not deterred Moscow’s shadow war.
– NATO must shift from defense to offense, using sanctions, cyberattacks, and counter-sabotage measures.

Notable Quotes:
– “Russia’s use of proxies further reduces the professionalism of their operations… Russian intelligence services have gone a bit feral, frankly, in some of their behavior.” – MI6 Chief Richard Moore
– “We are facing a foreign state that is conducting hostile and… kinetic action on Polish territory. There has never been anything like this before.” – Polish Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak
– “NATO Allies express their deep concern over Russia’s hybrid actions, which constitute a threat to Allied security.” – NATO Statement

Word Count:
– Summary: 398 words
– Original Document: Over 10,000 words

Model: GPT-4-turbo, Custom GPT: Summarizer 2