One-sentence summary: Putin is exploiting Donald Trump’s eagerness for a cease-fire to advance Russia’s long-standing strategic goals while offering deceptive concessions that undermine Ukraine’s security and NATO unity.
The article examines the implications of a recent phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin regarding a proposed cease-fire in Ukraine, warning that Putin is using a familiar Kremlin tactic: create a crisis, then demand concessions to resolve it. In this case, Russia offers a 30-day moratorium on attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, demanding in return that Ukraine halt retaliatory strikes and avoid rearming-effectively denying Ukraine the means of self-defense.
Putin continues to frame the conflict as a result of Ukraine’s existence as an “anti-Russian project” and an extension of Western encroachment on Russia’s sphere of influence, rather than recognizing Ukraine’s sovereignty. His demands reflect three persistent goals: preventing Ukraine from becoming a Western-aligned democracy, halting NATO expansion, and countering the post-Cold War geopolitical dominance of the United States.
The article criticizes Trump’s approach to negotiations, which appears to center on brokering land-for-peace deals that would not ensure long-term peace or stability. Instead, these would give Russia time to regroup and rearm. Trump’s apparent willingness to sidestep allies and pressure Ukraine without demanding real concessions from Russia echoes the flawed 2020 Doha Accord with the Taliban, which led to the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The piece argues that lasting peace and deterrence require strengthening Ukraine’s defenses, tightening sanctions on Russia, and maintaining NATO cohesion. Concessions without reciprocal Russian obligations risk undermining Ukraine, dividing the alliance, and emboldening Putin.
The article concludes with strategic advice: avoid letting the Kremlin set negotiation terms or timelines, refuse destabilizing compromises, and prepare for long-term efforts to secure peace-led by Europe, with sustained U.S. support.
Bristow, Laurie. “How to Negotiate With Putin.” Foreign Policy, 19 Mar. 2025, https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/19/how-negotiate-putin-trump-Ukraine.
Key takeaways:
- Putin’s cease-fire offer is a tactic to extract concessions and weaken Ukraine.
- Russia’s strategic goals have not changed since the war began.
- Trump’s negotiation style favors bilateral deals that bypass allies and weaken NATO unity.
- Land-for-peace proposals will not bring lasting peace without security guarantees.
- Strengthening Ukraine’s defense and maintaining alliance cohesion is essential.
- Strategic planning is needed for the post-cease-fire period to counter Russian destabilization efforts.
Important quotations:
- “Create a problem, and demand a price to solve it.”
- “Ukraine should trade land for peace. On its own, this is a dangerous illusion.”
- “Putin thinks he’s negotiating from a position of strength.”
- “Russia will only contemplate a genuine cease-fire if all the alternatives are worse.”
- “Don’t let ambition to do deals with a strongman damage the alliances that are democracies’ greatest asset.”
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