Kansas Employment Situation, June 2024

In Kansas in June 2024, the labor force was steady, the number of jobs and the number of unemployed people rose, and the unemployment rate rose compared to the previous month. Over the year, Kansas is near the midpoint of states in job growth.

Data released from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a mixed employment picture in Kansas for June 2024 when compared to the previous month.

(Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

Using seasonally adjusted data, from May 2024 to June 2024, nonfarm employment in Kansas rose by 7,600 jobs (0.5 percent). Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for June 2024 was higher by 17,900 (1.2 percent) over the same month last year. This is using seasonally adjusted data.

Over the year (June 2023 to June 2024), the Kansas labor force fell by 6,941 people (0.5 percent) using seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, with growth of 109 (0.0 percent) over the last month.

When ChatGPT looked at this table, it concluded:

In June 2024, Kansas’ employment data reveals some key trends.

Labor Force

• Labor Force Size: The labor force slightly increased from May 2024 to June 2024 by 109 people, remaining almost steady at around 1.507 million.
• Yearly Change: Compared to June 2023, the labor force shrank by 6,941 people, a 0.5% decrease.

Unemployment

• Unemployed Persons: The number of unemployed persons rose significantly. From May 2024 to June 2024, there was an increase of 2,128 unemployed persons, a 4.9% rise. Over the year, from June 2023 to June 2024, there was a notable increase of 6,493 unemployed persons, a 16.4% rise.
• Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate increased to 3.1% in June 2024, up from 2.9% in May 2024 and 2.6% in June 2023. This represents a 0.5% increase over the year and a 0.2% increase from the previous month.

Nonfarm Employment

• Employment Numbers: Nonfarm employment slightly rose from May 2024 to June 2024 by 7,600 jobs, a 0.5% increase. Over the year, from June 2023 to June 2024, nonfarm employment increased by 17,900 jobs, a 1.2% rise.

Analysis

• Labor Market Stability: The labor force size remained relatively stable month-over-month but has seen a slight yearly decline.
• Rising Unemployment: There is a notable increase in the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate both month-over-month and year-over-year, indicating a potential issue with job availability or economic conditions.
• Nonfarm Employment Growth: Despite the rise in unemployment, nonfarm employment has grown over the year, suggesting that certain sectors might be adding jobs, but not enough to offset the increase in unemployment.

Overall, while Kansas has seen some job growth in nonfarm employment, the rising unemployment rate points to underlying challenges in the job market.

There are now 194,200 (15.3 percent) more jobs in Kansas than in April 2020, which is the low point since the pandemic’s start. There are 35,400 (2.5 percent) more jobs than in February 2020, just before the pandemic. These are counts of nonfarm jobs with employers in Kansas, without regard to the residence of the employee.

Considering employed people from the household survey, there are now 153,530 (11.7 percent) more working people in Kansas than in April 2020, and 1,650 (0.1 percent) more than in February 2020. The household survey counts Kansas residents with nonfarm jobs, without regard to the location of the job.

Comparing Kansas to the nation: Using seasonal data, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs is 1.24 percent higher than 12 months ago, while nationally, the same statistic is 1.67 percent higher. Non-seasonal data shows the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs is 1.51 percent higher than 12 months ago, while nationally, the same statistic is 1.63 percent higher.

When ChatGPT examined this table of not seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, it concluded:

In June 2024, Kansas’ employment data shows several important trends when looking at not seasonally adjusted figures.

Labor Force

• Labor Force Size: The labor force in June 2024 was 1,515,000, which is a decrease of 7,464 people (or 0.5%) from June 2023.
• Year-to-Year Change: Compared to May 2023, the labor force also decreased by 7,932 people (or 0.5%).

Unemployment

• Unemployed Persons: The number of unemployed persons in June 2024 was 55,443, which is a significant increase of 12,609 people (or 29.4%) from June 2023.
• Year-to-Year Change: Compared to May 2023, the number of unemployed persons increased by 7,275 people (or 18.4%).
• Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in June 2024, up from 2.8% in June 2023. This represents a 0.9% increase (or 32.1%).

Nonfarm Employment

• Employment Numbers: Nonfarm employment in June 2024 was 1,468,800, which is an increase of 21,800 jobs (or 1.5%) from June 2023.
• Year-to-Year Change: Compared to May 2023, nonfarm employment increased by 18,400 jobs (or 1.3%).

Analysis

• Labor Market Stability: The labor force size has decreased slightly over the past year, indicating a slight contraction.
• Rising Unemployment: There is a significant rise in the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate, both year-over-year and from the previous year. This indicates increasing challenges in the job market.
• Nonfarm Employment Growth: Despite the rise in unemployment, nonfarm employment has grown, suggesting that job growth in some sectors is not enough to reduce overall unemployment.

Overall, Kansas faces a challenging job market with rising unemployment rates and a shrinking labor force, despite growth in nonfarm employment.

Chart 1a shows job changes for Kansas and the nation from the previous month, and we can see both positive and changes for Kansas over the past year. ChatGPT looked at this chart and told me this:

The chart titled “Kansas and National Nonfarm Employment” illustrates the month-to-month percentage change in nonfarm employment for Kansas and the United States from June 2023 to June 2024, using seasonally adjusted data.

Description

• X-Axis (Time): The horizontal axis shows the timeline from June 2023 to June 2024.
• Y-Axis (Percentage Change): The vertical axis represents the percentage change in nonfarm employment from the previous month, ranging from -0.50% to 0.50%.
• Lines: There are two lines on the chart:
  • Kansas: Represented by a dark blue line with more fluctuations.
  • United States: Represented by a light blue line with relatively smoother changes.

Analysis

• Kansas Trends:
  • Kansas shows significant fluctuations in month-to-month changes, with peaks and troughs indicating periods of rapid job gains and losses.
  • Notable spikes are observed around June 2023 and June 2024, indicating sharp increases in employment.
  • Significant declines are seen around July 2023 and March 2024, suggesting substantial job losses during these periods.
• United States Trends:
  • The national trend is much smoother compared to Kansas, showing steadier and less volatile changes in employment.
  • There is a generally consistent positive change, with minor dips but no extreme fluctuations.
  • The national line maintains a steady upward trend, indicating stable growth in nonfarm employment.
• Comparison:
  • Kansas exhibits more volatility in employment changes compared to the national average, suggesting that the state’s job market may be more sensitive to economic factors or specific industry changes.
  • The overall trend for both Kansas and the United States shows growth in nonfarm employment, but Kansas’ growth is marked by sharp peaks and valleys.

Conclusion

The chart highlights the dynamic nature of Kansas’ job market, with significant month-to-month variations compared to the more stable national trend. This could be indicative of local economic factors influencing Kansas more dramatically, while the national employment trend reflects broader, more stable economic conditions.

Chart 1b shows job changes for Kansas and the nation from the same month one year ago. Growth in Kansas has usually been lower than the nation. ChatGPT looked at this chart and told me this:

The chart titled “Kansas and National Nonfarm Employment” shows the year-over-year percentage change in nonfarm employment for Kansas and the United States from June 2023 to June 2024, using seasonally adjusted data.

Description

• X-Axis (Time): The horizontal axis represents the timeline from June 2023 to June 2024.
• Y-Axis (Percentage Change): The vertical axis shows the percentage change in nonfarm employment compared to the same month in the previous year, ranging from 0.00% to 2.83%.
• Lines: Two lines are plotted on the chart:
  • Kansas: Depicted by a dark blue line, showing more variability.
  • United States: Depicted by a light blue line, showing a more stable trend.

Analysis

• Kansas Trends:
  • Kansas started with a high year-over-year employment change of about 2.83% in June 2023.
  • There is a noticeable decline in the rate of change through the rest of 2023, with the lowest point near 0.00% around December 2023.
  • The trend shows some recovery and fluctuation throughout early 2024, but overall the rate of change remains lower compared to the initial high in June 2023.
  • By June 2024, Kansas’ year-over-year employment change stabilizes around 1.00%.
• United States Trends:
  • The national line starts at a lower percentage change than Kansas in June 2023 but follows a steadier decline.
  • The United States maintains a more consistent downward trend without significant fluctuations.
  • The year-over-year change gradually decreases, staying above 1.00% throughout the period.
  • By June 2024, the national employment change is just above 1.50%.
• Comparison:
  • Kansas shows more volatility in year-over-year employment changes compared to the United States.
  • The national trend is more stable, indicating a more gradual and consistent change in employment levels.
  • Kansas experiences sharper declines and fluctuations, possibly reflecting regional economic influences or sector-specific impacts.

Conclusion

The chart indicates that Kansas experienced a more volatile year-over-year change in nonfarm employment compared to the United States. While both started with a positive change in June 2023, Kansas saw more dramatic shifts, whereas the national trend showed a steadier decline. By June 2024, Kansas’ employment change rate had stabilized but remained lower than the national average. This suggests that Kansas’ employment situation is more susceptible to fluctuations, whereas the overall U.S. employment changes are more stable and gradual.

In Chart 3, showing unemployment rates for Kansas and the nation, we see that the rate in Kansas is lower than the national rate, as it had been before the pandemic. The unemployment rate in Kansas is little changed over the last year. ChatGPT says:

The chart titled “Kansas and National Unemployment Rate” displays the seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for Kansas and the United States from June 2023 to June 2024.

Description

• X-Axis (Time): The horizontal axis shows the timeline from June 2023 to June 2024.
• Y-Axis (Unemployment Rate): The vertical axis represents the unemployment rate, ranging from 0% to 4.5%.
• Lines: Two lines are plotted:
  • Kansas: Represented by a dark blue line.
  • United States: Represented by a light blue line.

Analysis

• Kansas Trends:
  • The unemployment rate in Kansas starts at a constant 2.6% in June 2023 and remains relatively flat until late 2023.
  • From early 2024, the unemployment rate begins to rise gradually.
  • By June 2024, the unemployment rate in Kansas increases to about 3.2%.
• United States Trends:
  • The national unemployment rate is initially higher than Kansas, starting around 3.8% in June 2023.
  • The national rate shows slight fluctuations but remains relatively stable, with minor increases and decreases.
  • By June 2024, the national unemployment rate reaches around 4.1%.
• Comparison:
  • Throughout the period, Kansas maintains a lower unemployment rate compared to the national average.
  • Kansas shows a more stable trend initially, with a noticeable increase beginning in early 2024.
  • The national trend is more stable, with minor fluctuations and a slight overall increase.

Conclusion

The chart indicates that Kansas has consistently maintained a lower unemployment rate compared to the national average. However, Kansas experienced a gradual increase in unemployment starting from early 2024, reaching a higher rate by mid-2024. The national unemployment rate showed relative stability with minor fluctuations, indicating a steadier job market compared to Kansas. This suggests that while Kansas initially had a lower unemployment rate, it faced rising unemployment in 2024, potentially due to regional economic factors.

Chart 2a shows monthly changes in the labor force for Kansas and the nation. The Kansas labor force has both expanded and contracted since the pandemic, as has the national labor force.

For industry groups, chart 6b shows the number of employees in various industries in May 2023 and May 2024.

Chart 6a uses the same data but shows the percent change for the same period. When I asked ChatGPT about this data, it provided this analysis:

The chart titled “Kansas Employment” presents the percentage change in employment across various sectors in Kansas from June 2023 to June 2024, using seasonally adjusted data.

Description

The chart is divided into multiple small graphs, each representing a different employment sector. The x-axis for all graphs shows the timeline from June 2023 to June 2024, and the y-axis shows the percentage change in employment, ranging from -8% to +8%.

Sector Analysis

• Total Nonfarm: Shows a steady increase of 1.2% over the period.
• Total Private: Similar to Total Nonfarm, with a 1.3% increase.
• Government: Exhibits a stable trend with a minor increase of 1.0%.
• Manufacturing: Slight increase of 0.4%, indicating stability.
• Construction: Significant growth of 3.4%, one of the higher increases among sectors.
• Trade, Transportation, and Utilities: Very modest increase of 0.4%.
• Information: Decline of 2.7%, showing a downward trend.
• Financial Activities: Slight increase of 1.0%, indicating stability.
• Mining and Logging: Decrease of 1.6%, showing a downward trend.
• Professional and Business Services: Minor decrease of 1.2%.
• Education and Health Services: Notable increase of 5.0%, the highest among all sectors.
• Leisure and Hospitality: Slight decline of 0.2%.
• Other Services: Significant increase of 5.8%, the highest increase shown.

Conclusion

The chart highlights varying trends in employment across different sectors in Kansas:
– Growth Sectors: Education and Health Services, Other Services, and Construction show significant growth.
– Stable Sectors: Total Nonfarm, Total Private, Government, Manufacturing, and Financial Activities display stability with minor increases.
– Declining Sectors: Information, Mining and Logging, Professional and Business Services, and Leisure and Hospitality show decreases.

Overall, Kansas employment data indicates growth in some key sectors, particularly Education and Health Services, and Other Services, while certain sectors like Information and Mining and Logging are facing challenges. This suggests a mixed economic environment with both opportunities and areas needing attention.

Kansas ranks twenty-first among the states and the District of Columbia in job growth over the past year, and forty-second for growth over the past month. The following chart shows the monthly and annual change in the number of jobs in the states and DC, along with the rank. ChatGPT noticed this:

Analysis of Kansas Economic Data (June 2024)

In June 2024, Kansas exhibited a strong performance in terms of job growth in the “Total Nonfarm” supersector. Here is a detailed analysis of the state’s performance, compared to other states:

Month-Over-Month Percentage Change

• Kansas’s Performance: Kansas had a month-over-month (MoM) percentage change of 0.5% in the Total Nonfarm sector.
• Rank: This placed Kansas 4th out of all states and the District of Columbia, indicating a robust short-term job growth compared to other states.
• Comparison: Only New Hampshire (0.6%), Arkansas (0.6%), and New Mexico (0.6%) had higher MoM growth rates.

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

• Kansas’s Performance: Kansas had a year-over-year (YoY) percentage change of 1.2% in the Total Nonfarm sector.
• Rank: This placed Kansas 31st out of all states and the District of Columbia, reflecting moderate annual job growth.
• Comparison: The top performers in YoY growth were South Carolina (3.5%), Missouri (3.2%), and Nevada (3.1%).

Context and Implications

• Economic Health: The high MoM growth suggests Kansas is experiencing significant short-term economic expansion, likely driven by recent investments or favorable economic conditions.
• Moderate Annual Growth: The moderate YoY growth indicates that while the short-term job growth is strong, the longer-term growth has been steadier. This could point to a more stable, but less dynamic, overall economic environment over the past year.
• Comparison to Neighboring States: Kansas outperformed many of its neighboring states in MoM growth, such as Nebraska (0.0%), Oklahoma (-0.1%), and Colorado (0.0%). However, it lagged behind Missouri in YoY growth, which had a more substantial annual increase (3.2%).

Broader Trends

• High MoM Performers: States like New Hampshire, Arkansas, and New Mexico also showed high MoM growth, indicating regions with possibly similar favorable economic conditions or recent economic stimuli.
• YoY Growth Leaders: South Carolina, Missouri, and Nevada led in YoY growth, suggesting these states have had sustained positive economic activities over the year, potentially making them attractive for long-term investments.

Conclusion

Kansas’s economic data for June 2024 reflects a state with strong short-term job growth, ranking 4th in MoM percentage change in the Total Nonfarm sector. However, its moderate YoY growth suggests that while recent conditions are favorable, the overall annual performance is steadier compared to the more dynamic growth seen in other states. This combination of strong short-term growth and moderate long-term performance positions Kansas as a state with potential for economic development, driven by recent positive changes.

Chart 8b shows job change state ranks over time. In this example, Kansas is highlighted.

The report for this month from the Kansas Department of Labor is here. The report from BLS may be found here. It appears there are no news releases or social media posts from Governor Kelly on this topic.