Kansas Republicans

As Kansas Republicans look to Texas as a role model for Kansas to follow, defenders of high levels of school spending in Kansas characterize Texas schools as inferior to Kansas schools.

A recent tweet from the Kansas Democratic Party read “Fun Texas Fact #6 for @govsambrownback: 28% of TX 4th graders read proficiently, 39th nationally. KS = 36%, 12th. #ksleg #KansasIsNotTexas”

Superficially, it looks like the Kansas Democrats might be right. Scores on the National Assessment of Education Progress, a test that is the same in all states, has Kansas scoring better than Texas (with one tie) in reading and math, in both fourth and eighth grade.

Considering only fourth grade reading, and looking at the percent reading at the “proficient” level or better, the statistics cited by the Kansas Democrats are absolutely correct.

That makes sense to the Democrats and to the school spending establishment, as Kansas, in 2009, spent $11,427 per student. Texas spent $11,085, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. Considering only spending deemed by NCES to be for instruction, it was Kansas at $6,162 per student and Texas at $5,138.

Texas also has larger class sizes, or more precisely, a higher pupil/teacher ratio. Texas has 14.56 students for each teacher. In Kansas, it’s 13.67. (2009 figures, according to NCES.)

So for those who believe that spending a lot on schools is necessary for student success, Kansas and Texas NAEP scores are evidence that they’re correct in their belief.

But let us take another look at the Kansas and Texas NAEP scores. Here’s a table of 2011 scores for fourth grade reading, the subject and grade level the Democrats used. (Click on the table to open it in a window by itself.)

Kansas and Texas reading scores

Notice that when reporting scores for all students, Kansas does better than Texas. Kansas has the highest scale score, and higher percentages of students meeting each level of achievement. (The cell with the best value is shaded.)

But when we look at subgroups, all the sudden the picture is different: Texas almost always bests or ties Kansas.

Kansas students have better reading scores than Texas students, that is true. It is also true that Texas white students have better reading scores than Kansas white students, Texas black students score better than or equal to Kansas black students, and Texas Hispanic students score almost exactly the same as Kansas Hispanic students.

How can this be? How can it be that when considering all students, Kansas does better than Texas, but when looking at ethnic subgroups, the situation is mostly reversed?

The answer is Simpson’s Paradox. A Wikipedia article explains: “A paradox in which a trend that appears in different groups of data disappears when these groups are combined, and the reverse trend appears for the aggregate data.”

In this case, the confounding factor (“lurking” variable) is that the two states differ greatly in the proportion of white students. In Kansas, 68 percent of students are white. In Texas it’s 31 percent. This large difference in the composition of students is what makes it look like Kansas students perform better on the NAEP than Texas students.

But looking at the scores for ethnic subgroups, which state would you say has the most desirable set of NAEP scores?

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Kansas Republicans don’t need to do this

by Bob Weeks on November 4, 2012

In elections, campaigns may divert from useful discussions of the issues to engage in mudslinging and innuendo. Both parties do it, but an example from the Kansas Republican Party crosses a line and may actually hurt the candidate it was intended to help.

The mail piece targets Keith Humphrey, a Democrat challenging incumbent Republican Mike Petersen for a spot in the Kansas Senate. As described in Wichita Eagle reporting, “Democratic Senate candidate Keith Humphrey … said the Kansas Republican Party should apologize for an ad it sent to voters that questions why he changed his name and raised questions about his businesses. Citing the Internet Movie Database and online public records, the ad says ‘Keith Humphrey doesn’t want you to know about his background … or that his name hasn’t always been Humphrey.’ … Humphrey said he was born as Keith Desoto and that his name changed when he was adopted at age 11.”

The mail piece also asks voters to wonder about this: “Owns four different companies, some with no websites or phone numbers.”

These issues, if we can even dignify them with that term, have nothing to do with someone’s fitness to serve in public office. Campaigning in this way causes people to turn away from politics and civic life, bringing out the worst in our political system. Democrats do this too, with notable examples targeting Michael O’Donnell in the campaign for the August primary. These, like the anti-Humphrey piece, were not sent by the candidates themselves.

Kansas Republicans — Democrats too, for that matter — would do better to stick to actual issues related to policy when campaigning. There’s much, for example, to highlight about Humphrey that relates to policy. His campaign website’s issues page reads, in part, “The tax plan passed by Sam Brownback and our incumbent state senator increases taxes on working families while slashing funding for education and increasing taxes on working class families throughout the 28th Senate District.”

Then later: “Unfortunately, cuts to public education over the last three years have gone too far.”

Actual facts don’t support these claims, as shown in Kansas Democrats wrong on school spending.

At a campaign forum in Derby, when asked about education funding and school vouchers, Humphrey cited only the base state aid per pupil figures, the same mistaken and unfactual tactics used by the education spending lobby.

Then after explaining the importance of skilled labor, he said “As far as a voucher program or something of that nature, to me it goes beyond the family right into the community, if, again if we don’t support that skilled labor base, eventually we’re going to lose one of the greatest resources we have here in south-central Kansas.” I would judge that to be non-responsive, or perhaps not understanding the topic of the question.

Finally, Humphrey was featured in a Derby Informer news story as a business owner skeptical of the Brownback tax reform’s ability to create conditions favorable for more job creation. He said that the tax reduction he expects to receive is not enough to allow him to hire another employee.

That amount is also not enough to hire, for example, a new schoolteacher, something that Humprey seems to be concerned about. The point of tax reduction is to leave more money in the productive private sector, instead of sending to an inefficient and wasteful government. As a private sector businessman, I’d think Humphrey should understand that, but evidently he doesn’t.

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Kansas Democrats mail in error

by Bob Weeks on October 25, 2012

A mailing by the Kansas Democratic Party citing the voting record of a Kansas House of Representatives candidate holds not only the usual hyperbole and spin, but also a factual error.

The mailing targets Joseph Scapa, a Republican running for re-election after serving his first term. The Democratic mailing criticizes Scapa for a vote made on the 2011 budget, claiming Scapa’s vote will harm schools. It also makes the usual claim about conservative Republicans — that they are merely rubberstamps for Kansas Governor Sam Brownback.

Excerpt from mailing from Kansas Democratic Party, incorrectly referring to a vote by Joseph Scapa.

Except: Scapa voted against the budget and the governor’s position. The mailer is wrong.

The Democrats also sent the same mailer regarding Jana Goodman. It’s wrong, too.

Unless, that is, you’re willing to believe that the list of liberal Democrats that voted the same way as Scapa are Brownback puppets and — as the mailer shouts — “failing the test on education.”

Excerpt of Journal of the Kansas House of Representatives, May 12, 2011, page 1570.

Update: The following day the Kansas Democratic Party chair apologized for the error.

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News that Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf is leaving the Republican Party after her primary election loss has been treated as mostly a political story, which it certainly is. More important, however, is the potential for new policies and laws regarding Kansas schools that hold the promise of helping Kansas schoolchildren and families.

Senator Schodorf’s most notable cause has been education. As chair of the senate education committee, she has been in a position of tremendous influence over education policy in Kansas. We should examine, then, the results of Kansas education policy.

This summer Kansas received a waiver from the main provisions of the federal No Child Left Behind Act. As part of the waiver, Kansas agreed to create a teacher evaluation system that includes student achievement as a significant factor in the evaluation. Many people would probably be surprised to learn that student achievement isn’t already the major factor, perhaps even the only factor, in teacher evaluations. But under Schodorf’s chairmanship of the senate education committee, this isn’t the case.

Related to this is that Kansas ranks low in policies on teacher quality. Plentiful research shows that among the factors that schools have under their control, teacher effectiveness is by far most important. But under Schodorf’s chairmanship of the senate education committee, these important and broad-reaching reforms were not considered. Instead, her committee devoted enormous time and effort to tinkering with minor issues such as teacher tenure policy, itself a harmful policy.

It’s true that performance on the assessments that are under the control of Kansas are rising. But scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) for Kansas students don’t reflect the same trend. Scores on this test, which is given every two years, aren’t rising like the Kansas-controlled test scores. These scores are largely unchanged over the past years.

Senator Schodorf, in her position of chair of the senate education committee, could have asked for an investigation as to why there exists this discrepancy. But she didn’t.

Speaking of test scores: Kansas often proudly claims that its schools rank very well when compared with other states. Compare Kansas with Texas, a state that Kansas school spending boosters like to deride as a state with low-performing schools. But you don’t have to look very hard to realize that these scores are a statistical artifact. It’s an unfortunate fact that minority students do not perform as well on these tests as white students. When you combine this with the fact that Kansas has a relatively small minority population, we can see why Kansas ranks well. In Kansas 69 percent of students are white, while in Texas that number is 33 percent. So it’s not surprising that overall, Kansas outperforms Texas (with one tie) when considering all students in four important areas: fourth and eighth grade reading, and fourth and eighth grade math.

But looking at Hispanic students only, Texas beats or ties Kansas in these four areas. For black students, Texas bests Kansas in all four. Texas does this with much less spending per pupil than Kansas.

Kansas also likes to brag of its high standards for schools. But when compared to other states, Kansas has low standards. The U.S. Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) has analyzed state standards, and we can see that Kansas has standards that are below most states. The table of figures is available at Estimated NAEP scale equivalent scores for state proficiency standards, for reading and mathematics in 2009, by grade and state. An analysis of these tables by the Kansas Policy Institute shows that few states have standards below the Kansas standards.

This table is from KPI’s report earlier this year titled Removing Barriers to Better Public Education: Analyzing the facts about student achievement and school spending.

The conclusion by NCES is “… most states’ proficiency standards are at or below NAEP’s definition of Basic performance.” KPI, based on simple analysis of the NCES data, concluded: “Kansas is one of those states, with its Reading Proficiency standard set lower than what the U.S. Department of Education considers Basic performance. Math Proficiency levels are above what NAEP considers to be Basic but still well below the U.S. standard for Proficient.” Did Senator Schodorf, in her role as education committee chair, push for increasing Kansas standards? If she did, we didn’t hear of it, and it certainly didn’t become policy or law.

Across the country, charter schools and school choice programs are offering choice and improved educational outcomes to families. While Kansas has charter schools, the charter school law in Kansas is one of the weakest in the nation, and virtually guarantees that public schools won’t face much meaningful competition from charters. School choice in the form of vouchers or tax credits doesn’t exist at all in Kansas. As a result, Kansas public schools face very little of the competitive forces that have been found to spur public schools to improvement across the country. As chair of the senate education committee, Senator Schodorf worked to make sure that charter schools and school choice are not available to Kansas families.

The departure of Senator Schodorf and other moderate senators is a political story. But it presents a chance for Kansas to make some important changes to its schools that are greatly needed. For this important policy reason, we shouldn’t mourn the loss of Schodorf and the other moderates.

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Defeated Kansas Republican Chorus

by Bob Weeks on August 14, 2012

Joseph Ashby and friends created a funny parody song about the recent primary election in Kansas, where many so-called moderate Republicans were defeated by conservative challengers. It’s described by Ashby as “The Defeated Republican Chorus sings about their recent election loss in the Kansas Republican primary.”

Ashby hosts a morning radio talk show on KQAM 1480 AM from 6:00 am to 8:00 am Monday through Friday. You can also listen through the station’s website. I often listen using tunein radio on my Iphone.

Find out more about the Joseph Ashby Show on Facebook at Joseph Ashby Show or on Twitter at @JosephAshbyShow.

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National coverage of Kansas primary election

by Bob Weeks on August 9, 2012

Coverage of the August 2012 Kansas primary elections in national publications.

Wall Street Journal: Kansas Voter Uprising: GOP incumbents who resisted reform get early retirement, Kansas’s Conservative Rebellion, Conservative Republicans Make Gains in Kansas

National Review: Kansas’s Tea Party Triumphs

Associated Press: Conservatives win big in Kansas Senate primaries

National Public Radio: Conservatives Win In Kansas GOP Senate Primary

Huffington Post: Steve Morris, Kansas Senate President, Blames Moderates’ Defeat On Conservative Attack Ads

Slate: The Great Kansas Republican Purge of 2012, Defeated Kansas Senator: “Koch Industries is Just a Terrible, Terrible Citizen.” This article is notable for exposing the delusional thinking and reasoning of defeated Kansas Senator Tim Owens. Owens ranked at the bottom of all senators — Democrats included — in the Kansas Economic Freedom Index.

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Analysis by Ballotpedia shows that the primary election victories by conservatives in Kansas is part of a larger national trend of incumbents losing primary election challenges. Kansas, however, is leading the trend, with the largest number of incumbents defeated among all the states.

In Kansas, about one-third of the incumbents who faced a primary challenger lost. That’s more than three times the number that lost in 2010, although the Kansas Senate was not up for election then as it is this year.

Ballotpedia’s article is Primary change: A rough night for incumbents, as 18 fall in Kansas legislative primaries. It holds a link to the larger study Primary Challenge: Anti-Incumbency Voting Patterns in State Legislative Elections.

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In Kansas, rejecting left-wing Republicans

by Bob Weeks on August 8, 2012

The headline in the Kansas City Star reads “Voters reject middle ground in Kansas Senate races.” A more accurate conclusion is that voters have realized that the governance of Kansas by a coalition of Democrats and left-wing Republicans has not been in the state’s best interest. Stagnate job growth as compared to other states, increasing spending on schools with no accountability and not even an honest discussion of achievement, falling behind other states in school reform and school choice, a highly undemocratic method of selecting our state’s top judges, resistance to privatization and other measures to streamline government, business tax costs topped by only a few other states: these are some of the results of this coalition.

But yesterday, Kansas voters said goodbye to many of the left-wing Republicans — the so-called “moderates” or “traditional Republicans” — and nominated conservatives in their place. Some nominees face Democratic challengers in November.

The results are a surprise not only for the number of victories by conservatives, but the margin of victory. In Johnson County, incumbent Senator Tim Owens was defeated 60 to 40. Owens ranked at the bottom of all senators — Democrats included — in the Kansas Economic Freedom Index.

In a neighboring district, incumbent Senator Mary Pilcher-Cook won her primary election by a 64 to 36 margin. Pilcher-Cook ranked at the top of the Kansas Economic Freedom index. Conservative Steve Abrams, who ranked well in the KEFI, also defeated a challenger.

Another notable result is the defeat of Senate President Steve Morris.

Other defeats of moderates, some being incumbents, include Jeff Melcher over Pat Colloton to replace John Vratil, Jacob LaTurner over Bob Marshall, Forrest Knox over John Grange, Jeff King over Dwayne Umbarger, Greg Smith over Joe Beveridge, Bob Reader over Roger Reitz, Tom Arpke over Pete Brungardt, Michael O’Donnell over Jean Schodorf, Mitch Holmes over Ruth Teichmann, and Dan Kerschen over Dick Kelsey. Kelsey will dispute being lumped in the moderate camp, but on economic freedom issues, he ranked just barely above neutral.

There were some victories for the moderates. Kay Wolf won the primary to replace Terrie Huntington, which is a retention for moderates. In Topeka, moderate Vicki Schmidt retains a place in the Senate, as does Carolyn McGinn in south-central Kansas. Pat Apple defeated a challenge from Charlotte O’Hara. Apple ranks barely above neutral in the KEFI, while O’Hara, in the Kansas House, was near the top. Jeff Longbine survived a challenge from conservative James Fawcett.

Commenting on the results, Americans for Prosperity–Kansas state director Derrick Sontag said “The primary results make one thing clear: Kansans support those who promote fiscally conservative, limited government, free market policies. Fiscal conservatives are now being elected because of the policies that have failed our state for years. This new field of candidates vying for office reflects a continued desire to put a stop to the rampant state spending and high tax burdens of the past. It is evident from the results at the ballot box that Kansans want a reasonable, responsible government and we are optimistic that our state is now starting to head down the path toward prosperity and a strong Kansas economy.”

In local races in south-central Kansas, voters rejected the challenge by left-wing Republican Wichita City Council Member Jeff Longwell to incumbent Karl Peterjohn. Longwell had the endorsement of Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer and all Wichita City Council members except Michael O’Donnell (district 4, south and southwest Wichita). Three Sedgwick County Commission members endorsed Longwell, too. As there is no Democratic contestant, this race is over.

In suburban Andover, voters rejected a proposed property tax increase for schools. Update: After the final canvass of votes, the tax increase passed by two votes.

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National coverage of Kansas primary election

by Bob Weeks on August 6, 2012

The August primary election in Kansas has received national attention. Following are some stories that appeared in national media.

New York Times: In Kansas, Conservatives Vilify Fellow Republicans

Wall Street Journal: Centrist Republicans Feel the Heat in Kansas Primaries

Reuters: Kansas Republicans war over “Ryan plan” style tax cuts

National Review Online: The Battle for Kansas

National Public Radio: Kansas GOP Campaigns To Exile Moderates

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Kansas traditional Republicans: The record

August 3, 2012

As Kansas Republicans decide who to vote for in next week’s primary election, moderate senate incumbents and many newspapers urge voting for those Republicans who promote a “reasonable,” “balanced,” and “responsible” approach to Kansas government. When we examine the record of the coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats that governed Kansas for the first decade of this century, we see legislative accomplishment that not many Kansans may be aware of.

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Kansas reasonable: Government reform

July 29, 2012

What is the record of the Kansas moderate Republicans who promote a “reasonable,” “balanced,” and “responsible” approach to Kansas government? Regarding government reform, prominent members of the moderate coalition have blocked important bills that could reform Kansas government for the betterment of everyone.

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Kansas reasonable: Judicial selection

July 27, 2012

Kansas Republicans who promote themselves as the “reasonable” candidates support a method of judicial selection in Kansas that is not democratic. In fact, Kansas is at the undemocratic extreme in judicial selection.

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Looking for Senator Reasonable

July 2, 2012

Where are reasonable Kansas Senate leaders, asks Alan Cobb of Americans for Prosperity Foundation.

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Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Wednesday January 11, 2012

January 11, 2012

Today: A legislator would do this?; Where to see, listen to State of State Address; Kansas Policy Institute launches blog; Kansas House Speaker criticized; Kansas presidential caucus; Democrats urged to help Republicans; Kansas health issues; Separation of art and state; Numbers trouble Americans; and Capitalism.

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Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Monday August 15, 2011

August 15, 2011

Today: Kansas economic development welfare promoted; “Birth of Freedom” screening; Kansas Republicans meet; Wichita City Council; Kansas values to be topic of speech; Libertarianism explained.

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Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Thursday January 6, 2011

January 6, 2011

Today: State GOP chief to speak in Wichita; Kansas budget under more stress; Education and Medicaid spending protected; Kansas websites to be presented; Kansas school spending, constitutional issues discussed; low interest rates and saving.

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Kansas: business-friendly or capitalism-friendly?

January 4, 2011

While Kansas Republicans want to create a business-friendly environment, we have to be watchful for harmful crony, or false, capitalism.

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Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Monday January 3, 2011

January 3, 2011

Today: This week at Wichita City Council; last meeting for two commissioners; legislators to hear from citizens; state GOP chief to speak in Wichita; repeal of sales tax; net neutrality advances; Wichita noticed in Boston.

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Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Monday December 6, 2010

December 6, 2010

Today: Economic freedom lecture, liberal success factor, Joshua Blick, economy, Rasmussen polls, Kansas Democrats, young Republicans.

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Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Tuesday November 30, 2010

November 30, 2010

Today: Climate change and global warming alarmism, Kansas schools and politics, Charter schools, Todd Tiahrt.

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Sedgwick County Republicans elect leadership

November 12, 2010

The Sedgwick County Republican Party met to elect its leadership, and while the party has made improvements in inclusiveness, some still feel left out.

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Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Friday November 5, 2010

November 5, 2010

Today: Elections, Barack Obama, Mark Parkinson, Kansas legislature, Pat Roberts, Rod Bremby, Wichita Pachyderm Club, Kansas Republicans, Regulation, Global warming alarmism.

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Kansas House of Representatives, a bloodbath for Democrats

November 3, 2010

Before yesterday’s election, conservatives in Kansas hopefully thought it might be possible to gain a working majority in the Kansas House of Representatives. The surprising result was a conservative wave larger than any election observer could have foreseen.

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Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Thursday October 28, 2010

October 28, 2010

Today: Elections, Kansas fourth district, Mike Pompeo, Raj Goyle, Regulation, Rhonda Holman, Smoking bans, Kansas Republicans, Wichita and Kansas schools

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Republican House candidates to speak

October 4, 2010

This Friday October 8, 2010, at the Wichita Pachyderm Club, South Central Kansas Republican Candidates for the Kansas House of Representatives will speak. The invited candidates are:

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Sedgwick County Commission candidates to appear

September 27, 2010

On Friday October 1, 2010 at the Wichita Pachyderm Club, Republican candidates for the Sedgwick County Commission will speak.

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For Kansas Rep. Don Hineman, loyalty is a one-way street

September 20, 2010

For Republican Kansas Representative Don Hineman of Dighton, party loyalty is a street that runs in only one direction: towards himself.

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Kansas primary election recap to be Pachyderm topic

August 18, 2010

At this week’s meeting of the Wichita Pachyderm Club, the presentation will be “Reflections on the Primary Election.” This will be a panel discussion with panelists Ken Ciboski, WSU Political Science Professor; Phillip Journey, District Court Judge; and Terry Bruce, Kansas Senator from Hutchinson.

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Kansas primary legislative elections 2010

August 6, 2010

Here’s a look at the August 3, 2010 Kansas primary election contests that had the possibility of changing the character of the Kansas House of Representatives, and in one case, the Kansas Senate.

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Kansas polls and election results

August 5, 2010

In the hotly contested Kansas Republican primary elections this year, polls generated a lot of interest. In two Kansas Congressional districts, independent polls did a good job of predicting the vote for all candidates except the two winners, and a candidate’s own poll may have been undermined by large voter turnout.

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Kansas primary election analysis

August 4, 2010

Analysis of Kansas primary election results by Chapman Rackaway and Denis Boyles.

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Tiahrt, in close campaign, comes in second

August 4, 2010

At an election night watch party at the Hilton Hotel in Wichita, supporters of Todd Tiahrt in his campaign for United States Senate were encouraged by early returns from Sedgwick and Johnson counties.

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Ranzau takes Sedgwick County commission primary

August 3, 2010

Tonight Richard Ranzau has won the primary election for Sedgwick County Commission over former incumbent Lucy Burtnett

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Election eve Kansas poll

August 3, 2010

An election eve statewide poll in Kansas indicates a likely win for Jerry Moran for United States Senate. The first Congressional district remains a toss-up between Tim Huelskamp and Jim Barnett, and it looks like Mike Pompeo is in control in the fourth district.

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Kansas Republican senate primary closer

August 2, 2010

A poll released today by KWCH Television in Wichita and SurveyUSA shows a closer contest for the Republican Party nomination for United States Senate from Kansas between Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt.

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Moran – Tiahrt opinion and reporting roundup, part two

August 2, 2010

Here’s some additional reporting and opinion on the campaign for the Republican Party nomination for United States Senate between Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt.

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Final Kansas fourth Congressional district polls indicate close race

August 1, 2010

Polls show the race for the Republican Party nomination for U.S. Congress from the Kansas fourth district to be a close race between two candidates.

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Kansas fourth district poll shows tightening race with Pompeo in lead

July 29, 2010

KWCH Television in Wichita and SurveyUSA have released a poll of candidates seeking the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas.

The survey shows support for Wichita businessman Jim Anderson and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf on the rise, while the numbers for Wichita businessman Wink Hartman continue to decline. The support for Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo also fell slightly, well within the poll’s level of sampling error.

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Kansas fourth Congressional district campaign finance reports

July 29, 2010

Candidates for the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas have filed campaign finance reports for the first two weeks of July and some last-minute reports since then.

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Hartman ad claims remain elusive

July 28, 2010

The claims made last week in a campaign advertisement by Wichita businessman Wink Hartman remain elusive and largely unproven.

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In Kansas first Congressional district, it’s knotted

July 27, 2010

New polling by KWCH Television and SurveyUSA indicate a very close race for the Republican party nomination for United States Congress from the first district of Kansas.

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