From the category archives:

Politics

New Yorker’s Koch profile misses the point

by Bob Weeks on August 31, 2010

There’s been much attention paid to a recent profile of Charles and David Koch that appeared in a recent edition of New Yorker magazine. It’s also been heavily criticized as biased and based on several false premises.

For example, the New Yorker article is critical of Charles and David Koch for funding organizations that are skeptical and questioning of the claims of global warming alarmists. A recent statement added to the Koch Industries website explains Koch’s position:

A free society and the scientific method require an open, honest airing of all sides, not demonizing and silencing those with whom you disagree. We’ve strived to encourage an intellectually honest debate on the scientific basis for claims of harm from greenhouse gases. Because it’s crucial to understand whether proposed initiatives to reduce greenhouse gases will achieve desired environmental goals and what effects they would likely have on the global economy, we have tried to help highlight the facts of the potential effectiveness and costs of policies proposed.

But the stance of the New Yorker article is that global warming is real, it is man made, and it is ruining the planet. Criticism of the Kochs on this matter makes sense only if you uncritically believe what the New Yorker and its left-wing readership believe.

Today, Daniel Fisher of Forbes Magazine takes a look at the New Yorker piece and finds that “lot of what she [author Jane Mayer] paints as nefarious activity is simple business sense.”

New Yorker’s Koch Profile Misses The Point

By Daniel Fisher

Jane Mayer’s much-discusssed New Yorker profile of the Koch brothers is a useful look at how money can buy an outsized voice in our democracy. But a lot of what she paints as nefarious activity is simple business sense. And anybody who’s spent time talking to Charles Koch, as I have, comes away with the conviction that with this man, business is personal and the personal is political. He’s the kind of guy who can fund the right-wing Cato Institute and hope that its mantra of lower taxes, inviolate property rights and personal responsibility will somehow reverse decades of increasing central-government power. (For the record, it hasn’t.)

For Midwestern entrepreneurs of his generation, there’s nothing wrong or even unusual about thinking the New Deal was a colossal mistake, and spending money in a futile effort to roll it back. Mayer quotes a purported friend of the Koch brothers saying they have “a distrust of the U.S. government, and seeing its expansion, beginning with the New Deal, as a tyrannical threat to freedom.” That’s straight out of Friedrick Hayek’s Road to Serfdom and while not to the taste of most New Yorker readers, barely qualifies as conservative compared to the Wisconsin farmers I encountered in my first newspaper job. They considered zoning to be the vanguard of the Communist revolution (I am not exaggerating).

Continue reading at Forbes.

Tagged as: Koch Industries, Regulation

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Pompeo, Congressional candidate, to address Pacyhderms

by Bob Weeks on August 31, 2010

in Politics,Uncategorized

The speaker at this Friday’s meeting (September 3rd) of the Wichita Pachyderm Club is candidate for the United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas Mike Pompeo.

Pompeo, a Republican, is challenged by Reform party candidate Susan Ducey, Democrat Raj Goyle, and Libertarian David Moffett.

All are welcome to attend Wichita Pachyderm Club meetings. The program costs $10, which includes a delicious buffet lunch including salad, soup, two main dishes, and ice tea and coffee. The meeting starts at noon, although it’s recommended to arrive fifteen minutes early to get your lunch before the program starts.

The Wichita Petroleum Club is on the ninth floor of the Bank of America Building at 100 N. Broadway (north side of Douglas between Topeka and Broadway) in Wichita, Kansas (click for a map and directions). You may park in the garage (enter west side of Broadway between Douglas and First Streets) and use the sky walk to enter the Bank of America building. The Petroleum Club will stamp your parking ticket and the fee will be $1.00. Or, there is usually some metered and free street parking nearby.

Tagged as: Elections, Kansas fourth district, Mike Pompeo, Raj Goyle, United States Congress, Wichita Pachyderm Club

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Roberts endorses Mike Pompeo

by Bob Weeks on August 24, 2010

in Politics

This morning United States Senator Pat Roberts stopped by the Mike Pompeo campaign headquarters in east Wichita to endorse Pompeo in his campaign for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas.

In his endorsement, Roberts said that Pompeo knows the airplane manufacturing business and how to meet a payroll. Roberts said that the general aviation industry is in a fight almost every session of Congress, and that Pompeo’s knowledge of this industry will be a plus in Washington.

Roberts described Pompeo’s leading opponent — Democrat Raj Goyle — as having a “very liberal background.” Roberts described how some of his colleagues in the Senate on the other side of the aisle — meaning they are Democrats — would make conservative speeches in their home states, but vote the Democratic party line in Washington. He told the audience “We cannot afford to send anybody, no matter what they say in this campaign, to Washington when the first vote they will cast will be for Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.”

Roberts also said that Pompeo’s military background and experience means he understands the value of national security, which Roberts said is the first obligation of the federal government. He added that Pompeo would be a good match for the armed services committee.

Roberts characterized this election as a “crossroads,” although he recognized this word is overused. Bureaucratic agencies in Washington are planning to further the Obama agenda without Congress, creating what he called a “fourth branch of government.”

Their ultimate goal is to implement cap-and-trade energy regulation and taxation without the consent of Congress, Roberts told the audience. “Either we’re going to make decisions with the consent of the governed and send a message to Congress, or they’re going to make the decisions for us, and we’re going to have to live with it.”

In his remarks, Pompeo said this is a unique election, as “we stand as a nation in a place we have not been in my lifetime,” citing the recent large federal deficit spending. This, he said, was his primary reason for deciding to run for Congress. He said that Goyle, his opponent, thinks about the world “in a way that’s very different from most Kansans” and has an East Coast philosophy and experiences that represent the Obama/Pelosi agenda. That agenda is not right for Kansas, he added.

I asked about the upcoming lame duck session of Congress — the period after the November election and before newly-elected members take office: If there is a big win by Republicans, is there a danger that many just-defeated members will be voting on potentially important legislation?

Roberts answered that there should not be a lame duck session. Specific areas of concern during the session include card check, immigration, raising taxes in a recession, and other things that would further the Obama agenda.

He said that there are 125,000 more federal employees now than when Obama assumed office, and that their average salary is $125,000. These people are the fourth branch of government, he said, and they’re trying to get the Obama agenda passed despite — or around — Congress.

A lame duck session with partisan political goals is not in the best interest of America, and there is a danger of that, he said.

Besides Pompeo and Goyle other candidates in this race are Reform party candidate Susan Ducey and Libertarian David Moffett.

Additional coverage is available at the Wichita Eagle and at State of the State KS, which includes video.

Tagged as: Elections, Kansas fourth district, Mike Pompeo, Pat Roberts, Politics, Raj Goyle, United States Congress

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Goyle’s social security protection pledge is a tax increase pledge

by Bob Weeks on August 19, 2010

in Politics

Raj Goyle, candidate for Congress, has pledged to protect social security. He doesn’t mention the tax increase that will be required to fulfill this pledge.

Goyle’s opponents in the campaign for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas are Reform party candidate Susan Ducey, Libertarian David Moffett, and Republican Mike Pompeo.

In his pledge, Goyle promises to “work for real solutions that strengthen Social Security for the long term.” Specifically, he pledges to oppose all efforts at privatization and raising the retirement age to 70.

The problem is that after ruling out reforms like these, there’s not much left to do except to raise taxes. Evidence of this can be found in today’s Wichita Eagle, which carries an editorial from the Los Angeles Times. Titled Ignore fearmongering on Social Security, it mostly looks back at opposition to the formation of the Social Security system 75 years ago.

But the article recognizes that the system needs “minor adjustments” to remain solvent. The authors write: “Economists say that raising the income ceiling on the payroll tax, applying the Social Security tax to nonwage income or adding a modest increase to the payroll tax could add decades to the health of the Social Security trust fund.”

Each of these policy changes is a tax increase. The article lists no other solutions than these.

These recommendations are not Goyle’s. He hasn’t said what he would do to place the system on a sound financial footing.

But there’s not much that we can do except raise taxes if we want to keep the current system.

We need to do something quickly. Social Security will pay out more in benefits this year than it receives in contributions from payroll taxes. It had been thought that this milestone would not be reached until 2017 or later.

There are those who cite the Social Security trust fund and its large balance of over $2 trillion as evidence that the system is doing well. But as Thomas Sowell explains, the trust fund is merely an illusion. The money in the fund has already been spent by government agencies. The only way they can pay back the fund is through tax revenues.

It’s not as though Republicans are confronting the problem head-on. One of the few officeholders willing to do so is Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, who is ranking member of the House Budget Committee. His Roadmap for America’s future is a plan that recognizes the seriousness of the current situation, not only with Social Security, but in other areas of the federal budget.

His recommendations, specific as they are, cause consternation among some Republicans who would rather talk about problems in general terms rather than specifics. A recent Washington Post profile of Ryan referred to “… many Republican colleagues, who, even as they praise Ryan for his doggedness, privately consider the Roadmap a path to electoral disaster. Unlike most politicians of either party, he doesn’t speak generically about reducing spending, but he does acknowledge the very real cuts in popular programs that will be required to bring down the debt.”

Also: “House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) has alternately praised Ryan and emphasized that his ideas are not those of the party.”

The fact that frank talk about the budget and government spending might be an electoral disaster is a bad sign for America.

Tagged as: Government spending, Kansas fourth district, Mike Pompeo, Paul Ryan, Raj Goyle, Social Security, Taxation, United States Congress

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Kansas primary election recap to be Pachyderm topic

by Bob Weeks on August 18, 2010

in Politics

At this week’s meeting of the Wichita Pachyderm Club, the presentation will be “Reflections on the Primary Election.” This will be a panel discussion with panelists WSU Political Science Professor Ken Ciboski, District Court Judge Phillip Journey, and Terry Bruce, a Kansas Senator from Hutchinson.

Tagged as: Elections, Kansas legislature, Kansas Republicans, Kansas state government, Politics, Wichita Pachyderm Club

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Star Parker campaigns in Wichita

by Bob Weeks on August 18, 2010

in Politics

In a campaign stop yesterday in Wichita noted conservative figure Star Parker told an audience that she works for market-based solutions to fight poverty, and that the answer to poverty is freedom and personal responsibility, not a welfare state.

Parker appeared in Wichita at a fundraising event hosted by Wichita businessman Johnny Stevens. Parker is running for Congress as a Republican from the 37th district of California, which includes the cities of Compton, Long Beach, and Carson, south of the City of Los Angeles. Her campaign website is Star Parker for Congress.

Parker described her efforts working on welfare reform at the federal level during the 1990s, which she described as successful in terms of helping poor people recover their lives. But the momentum that was started — moving poor people from socialism towards capitalism and economic freedom — has not continued, she said. What we have today, she told the audience, is moving in the opposite direction.

Parker said that a critical factor in helping her to decide whether to run for Congress was when President Barack Obama chose to use Abraham Lincoln’s Bible as part of the swearing-in ceremony during his inauguration. Lincoln — although a complicated man and her hero, Parker said — confronted the moral problem of his day by deciding that the country should remain together and with everyone as free people. She contrasted this with Obama, who avoided a moral question by saying it was “above his pay grade.”

Then when she saw bankers and Wall Street executives lining up to go on welfare she was furious, and seriously considered responding positively when asked to run for Congress.

Democrat Laura Richardson, the two-term incumbent in the district Parker is seeking to represent in Congress, has had trouble with homes she owns falling into foreclosure, even being criticized by the Los Angeles Times for that and for falling behind on property tax payments. Richardson had been charged with an ethics violation in conjunction one of her three homes that has been in foreclosure. In July the House Ethics Committee cleared her of misconduct in that matter.

Parker said that Richardson’s main accomplishment has been bringing stimulus money into the district. She described it as a union district, and that unions do not want to see this seat in conservative hands.

Parker criticized campaign finance laws that allow those with personal wealth to spend all they want on their campaigns — we saw this in the Kansas fourth district with one candidate spending about $2 million of his own funds — but limit outside contributions to $2,400 per election cycle. This limits the ability of challengers to mount effective campaigns against incumbents, she said.

Parker said it is critical to take Congress back from the control of Democrats, and that for a black conservative to win a seat currently held by the Congressional Black Caucus would be “extremely sweet.”

She told the audience that if we fail to take Congress this fall, “you think you’ve seen arrogance now, you think you’ve seen elitism, you think you’ve seen how aggressively they can spend other peoples’ money and how close to the edge of danger they will allow us to go — we’ve seen nothing if on November third we wake up and they still have the Congress.”

Even if Republicans take Congress, she said since over half of them are not conservative, there will still be a challenge.

She mentioned that she will be part of an upcoming John Stossel feature on Fox News Network.

Parker had spoke about the importance of schools and described the difficulties that parents face trying to get their children in good schools. Answering a question about the lack of reform such as charter schools and school choice in Kansas, Parker said that lack of these limits the opportunity for the underclass to get a quality education. In public schools, Parker said that children are taught secular humanism, and the cycle of the entitlement mentality is passed down from one generation to the next. School choice is the way to break this cycle and give schoolchildren an opportunity to attend schools that have a moral framework.

Answering another question about what caused the transformation in her thinking — Parker is not shy about talking about her past life living on welfare — she said that she “just got born again” and decided to adopt a Biblical world view.

As to what spurred her to become a free-market activist and adopting a libertarian economic thought, she said that it was her experience in business. “Government is harsh,” she said, with many agencies that stand in the way of prosperity.

The ideas of socialism are inconsistent with a free country, she said, telling them that the rules of welfare are “don’t work, don’t save, and don’t get married.” These rules work against people breaking out of poverty.

Parker has been endorsed by many national conservative figures, including Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, and Mike Huckabee.

Tagged as: Barack Obama, Capitalism, Education, Free markets, Freedom, School choice, United States Congress

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For Raj Goyle, most money comes from outside Kansas

by Bob Weeks on August 16, 2010

in Politics

In the race for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas between Democrat Raj Goyle and Republican Mike Pompeo, there’s a distinct difference in the nature and source of campaign contributions for the two candidates. So far, 70 percent of Goyle’s campaign contributions have come from donors outside Kansas, with Washington DC being the metropolitan area with the highest source of contributions.

Analysis of campaign contributions may be found at OpenSecrets.org, a project of the Center for Responsive Politics. The following tables are based on data through the last comprehensive reporting period, which ended June 30, 2010.

As of that date, Goyle had raised $1,255,403, and Pompeo had raised $935,084.

The distribution between in-state and out-of-state donors is this:

                In Kansas       Out of Kansas
Raj Goyle     $306,151 (30%)    $721,322 (70%)
Mike Pompeo   $646,572 (79%)    $167,743 (21%)

During the primary election, a frequent criticism of Pompeo made by his opponents was that he was a “Washington insider,” and that was where much of his support and campaign funds were coming from. When looking at the metropolitan areas that contributions have come from, we see that little of Pompeo’s campaign contributions came from Washington, while Washington is the single largest source of Goyle’s funds, outpacing Wichita, the dominant population center in the fourth Congressional district of Kansas:

For Raj Goyle:
Metro Area                  Total
WASHINGTON, DC-MD-VA-WV   $195,827
WICHITA                   $169,851
NEW YORK                  $109,385
KANSAS CITY, MO-KS        $105,400
SAN FRANCISCO              $35,552

For Mike Pompeo:
Metro Area                  Total
WICHITA                   $585,617
CHICAGO                    $20,400
WASHINGTON, DC-MD-VA-WV    $18,326
KANSAS CITY, MO-KS         $17,250
DALLAS                     $11,950

An area of concern for some voters is the influence of political action committees (PACs). In the primary election, Pompeo’s opponents made frequent charges that he was beholden to PAC money. Looking again at data from OpenSecrets, we see that Goyle has received $76,250 in contributions from sources that OpenSecrets classifies as PACs. The figure for Pompeo is $28,000.

OpenSecrets also classifies contributions based on the industry of the donor. For each candidate, here are the top five industries that made contributions:

For Raj Goyle:
Sector                   Total
Lawyers & Lobbyists    $120,538
Finance/Insur/RealEst  $104,500
Ideology/Single-Issue  $100,629
Other                   $75,094
Health                  $72,403

For Mike Pompeo:
Sector                   Total
Finance/Insur/RealEst  $102,993
Energy/Nat Resource     $62,850
Construction            $35,950
Other                   $35,700
Lawyers & Lobbyists     $33,150

In the Republican primary, Pompeo’s opponents charged that he was too close to lobbyists, but this category made up relatively little of his campaign dollars. If lobbyist contributions are a concern for voters, this industry category is the leading source of contributions for Goyle.

An area where Goyle does better than Pompeo is in what OpenSecrets calls “quality of disclosure,” meaning how well the contributions include the names of donors and their occupations and employers. For Goyle, 3.1 percent of the contributions (based on dollar amounts) have “incomplete” or “none” for these pieces of data. For Pompeo, the figure is 11.8 percent.

These reports include contributions made only through June 30, 2010. The focus at that time was the primary election, more for Republicans than Democrats, as Goyle faced an inexperienced and under-funded candidate, although at one time Goyle trailed in a poll. Now that the general election is the focus for both candidates, the characteristics and distribution of contributions may change.

Tagged as: Kansas fourth district, Mike Pompeo, Politics, Raj Goyle, United States Congress

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Anderson, former Congressional candidate, to host Wichita radio show

by Bob Weeks on August 16, 2010

in Politics

Today former candidate for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas Jim Anderson announces that he will host a weekly talk radio program in Wichita.

The show, titled “The Jim Anderson Program” will air on Saturday afternoons from 1:00 pm to 3:00 pm on KNSS radio, 1330 AM.

This is a step forward for Wichita, as it is one of the largest cities without local talk radio that focuses on public affairs. Following is the press release from KNSS:

WICHITA, KS — Entercom Radio Wichita is proud to announce the formation of South Central Kansas’ newest live and local talk radio show, “The Jim Anderson Program”, which will debut on Saturday, August 21st, from 1-3pm on NewsRadio 1330 KNSS.

Former 4th district Republican congressional candidate, Constitutional Conservative, and small business owner, Jim Anderson, will host this live and local talk show program that will address wide-ranging issues from politics, culture, history, current events, and discussing their implications on the local, national and international scene. The program promises to be a no holds-barred and nonpartisan mouthpiece as well as demand accountability and seek truth. “We are going to hold people’s feet to the fire,” Anderson stated. He continued, “for too long, we the people have been to blame for not holding our local, state, and national representatives accountable, it is and has been our fault. My goal is to provide a voice and a platform so regular citizens, like myself, can do just that with the powerful and influential who have forgotten that power is derived from the consent of the governed”.

“It is our hope that Jim’s passion, fire, and genuineness will create a program that people can’t miss, a program where they have a voice, and one that is not too far away to interact or gain attention of,” says KNSS Program Director, Tony Duesing.

The Jim Anderson Radio Program can be heard every Saturday, from 1-3pm on NewsRadio 1330 KNSS.

Tagged as: Jim Anderson, Kansas news media, Politics, Wichita news media

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Kansas fourth Congressional district poll released

by Bob Weeks on August 12, 2010

in Politics

The first public poll covering the race for United States Congress from the Kansas fourth district shows a close race between the two leading contenders, with Republican Mike Pompeo edging Democrat Raj Goyle by 49 percent to 42 percent.

Libertarian Party candidate David Moffett received four percent support, and Reform party candidate Susan Ducey received one percent. Five percent were undecided.

The poll was released by KWCH Television in Wichita and SurveyUSA. The poll’s margin of sampling error was not given, but previous polls by this firm and similar to this have had a margin of sampling error of about four percentage points.

Pompeo receives strong support from young voters. For those under 50 years old, Pompeo leads 59 percent to 28 percent, while for voters over 50, he trails Goyle by 41 percent to 51 percent.

Men favor Pompeo 53 percent to 38 percent, while women favor Goyle 46 percent to 44 percent.

Those who attend church regularly, those with pro-life beliefs, and gun owners favored Pompeo. Democrats, Independents, those with self-described moderate beliefs, and voters with incomes less than $50,000 favored Goyle.

Important dates for voters to remember are these:

October 13: Election offices begin mailing advance voting ballots

October 18: Last day to register to vote or change party affiliation for the general election

October 27: Last day for election office to mail advance voting applications

October 29: Last day for election office to mail advance voting ballots

November 2: Election day

Kansas fourth Congressional district poll, August 12, 2010

Tagged as: Elections, Kansas fourth district, Mike Pompeo, Raj Goyle, United States Congress

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Kansas first Congressional district poll released

by Bob Weeks on August 11, 2010

in Politics

Although the primary is barely over and the general election is nearly three months away, a poll covering the race for United States Congress from the Kansas first district has already been released.

The candidates for this position include Republican Tim Huelskamp, who is a Kansas Senator and farmer from the southwest Kansas town of Fowler. He won the Republican primary election on August 3rd.

The Democratic Party nominee is Alan Jilka. He did not have an opponent in the primary election. Jilka is a Salina businessman and has served three terms as that north-central Kansas city’s mayor.

The Libertarian Party nominated Jack Warner of Wright, just east of Dodge City.

In the poll, Huelskamp leads with 65 percent of the respondents indicating they would vote for the Republican. Jilka received 23 percent, and Warner received seven percent. Five percent said they were undecided.

Important dates for voters to remember are these:

October 13: Election offices begin mailing advance voting ballots

October 18: Last day to register to vote or change party affiliation for the general election

October 27: Last day for election office to mail advance voting applications

October 29: Last day for election office to mail advance voting ballots

November 2: Election day

Kansas first Congressional district poll, August 9, 2010

Tagged as: Alan Jilka, Kansas first district, Tim Huelskamp, United States Congress

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Activist training to be held in Wichita

by Bob Weeks on August 8, 2010

in Politics

Update: This event has been canceled.

A message from my friends at American Majority:

Our nation was founded by ordinary citizen activists desiring a government that was accountable to the people. Today, ordinary citizens across our nation are tired of the status quo and ready to engage for the betterment of their communities.

American Majority is pleased to announce an Activist Training will be conducted on Saturday, August 21 in Wichita, KS, to provide citizens with the tools necessary to become effective activists.

The training will take place in the meeting room at Mike’s Steakhouse located at 2131 S Broadway in Wichita from 10:30 am to 2:30 pm. Registration opens at 10:15. The cost is $25 per attendee. Lunch may be purchased during the event, if desired.

The training will be conducted by a certified American Majority Mechanic Trainer (read more about your trainer at the end of this article).

Topics to be covered during the Training include:

The System (an in-depth look at the system we’re in, how we got there, and what we can do about it)

Grassroots Action (ideas and practical steps to engage our communities and organize a coalition of volunteers)

Patriots 2.0 (effectively utilizing social networking tools, blogs, wiki projects and other technologically-driven platforms)

Full training materials, samples and supplements will be provided to help you apply what you learn to your organization, candidate, cause or community.

If you have any questions or would like additional information, contact Laurie Skipper at Laurie@AMMechanics.org or call (316) 686-2525.

American Majority is a non-profit and non-partisan organization whose mission is to train and equip a national network of leaders committed to individual freedom through limited government and the free market.

About Your Trainer

The trainer for this event is a certified American Majority Mechanic Trainer as part of the American Majority Mechanics Program. This individual was identified, trained and certified to conduct Activist Trainings on behalf of American Majority.

The American Majority Mechanics Program was launched in 2010 with goal of training citizen-activists to equip others to become engaged in their state and local communities. The program is named after the roughly 30 citizens who called themselves “Mechanics” and organized an intelligence network designed to monitor and inform the citizenry about British activities in New England colonies on the eve of American independence. Among its most notable members was Paul Revere.

For more information on become an American Majority mechanic, please contact us.

To register for this event, click here. For more information, clock on American Majority Activist Training in Wichita.

Tagged as: Activism, American Majority, Elections, Politics

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Kansas polls and election results

by Bob Weeks on August 5, 2010

in Politics

In the hotly contested Kansas Republican primary elections this year, polls generated a lot of interest. In two Kansas Congressional districts, independent polls did a good job of predicting the vote for all candidates except the two winners, and a candidate’s own poll may have been undermined by large voter turnout.

In a KWCH/SurveyUSA poll of the Kansas first Congressional district, the poll accurately (within the margin of sampling error) predicted the outcomes for all candidates except for victor Tim Huelskamp. The survey predicted 24 percent of the vote for him, and the actual vote was 35 percent. This poll had three candidates tied, so it didn’t predict a winner.

The same group also polled the fourth Congressional district. For three candidates — Jim Anderson, Wink Hartman, and Jean Schodorf, the poll predicted the exact percentage that the candidates actually received. The exception was winner Mike Pompeo. The poll predicted he would win and receive 31 percent of the vote. He did win, and his actual vote total was 39 percent.

An election eve poll by political consulting firm Singularis had mixed results in the fourth district, but is notable in that it predicted eventual winner Pompeo’s vote total closely. The poll indicated 37 percent of the vote, and the actual was 39 percent.

In the fourth district, Schodorf released four polls that her campaign commissioned. Each poll showed her support increasing, until in the third poll, she took the lead. In the fourth poll her lead increased.

When comparing this poll to actual election results, we find that Schodorf’s poll overstated her actual performance by six percentage points. The performance of Anderson and Hartman were understated by six and seven points. For winner Pompeo, the final Schodorf poll understated his performance by 13 percentage points. (These polls did not include candidate Paij Rutschman.)

In a conversation before the election with Schodorf’s pollster, he indicated several reasons why the numbers in her surveys were different than the KWCH/SurveyUSA poll numbers.

One difference between the polls was the source of the voters called by the pollsters. The KWCH/SurveyUSA polls started with a list of households. To determine likely voters, the pollster would ask respondents if they were going to vote. Schodorf’s polls used voter lists as a source, calling only on voters who had a history of voting in August primary elections.

Because many people look at voting as a positive civic duty, it is thought that people will overstate their actual tendency to vote, and this is a reason why polls might decide to use voter history as a selection device, especially in primary elections where turnout is generally low. It is standard practice of campaigns to use voter lists in their voter contact efforts.

But this year voter turnout was high. The Wichita Eagle reported voter turnout in Sedgwick County — home to about 71 percent of the population in the fourth district — was 25 percent. That’s higher than the 19 percent turnout predicted statewide, and higher than in most primary elections.

Considering Republican voters, the Sedgwick County election office reports there are 104,558 registered Republicans, and 49,967 Republican ballots were cast. That indicates a turnout of almost 48 percent, considering Sedgwick County only.

By calling only those with a history of primary voting, many people who voted in this election would not have been sampled by polls based on voter history.

The Schodorf polls were conducted by live operators, while the KWCH/SurveyUSA polls were automated response. This can lead to a difference in the types of people that respond to the poll.

In the Republican Senate primary between Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt, the final KWCH/SurveyUSA poll had Moran ahead by 49 to 39 percent, with eight percent undecided. The actual totals were Moran winning with 50 percent to Tiahrt’s 45 percent, so that poll understated Tiahrt’s total by six percentage points while correctly choosing the winner.

Tagged as: Elections, Jean Schodorf, Jim Anderson, Kansas first district, Kansas fourth district, Kansas Republicans, Mike Pompeo, Tim Huelskamp, Wink Hartman

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Kansas primary election analysis

by Bob Weeks on August 4, 2010

in Politics

At State of the State KS, Fort Hays State University Political Science Professor Chapman Rackaway contributes analysis of the statewide and Congressional races.

Rackaway notes that the Kansas first and fourth Congressional districts were expected to be very close races, but both Tim Huelskamp and Mike Pompeo won going away with large margins.

The big message of the night, he writes, is this: “[Jerry] Moran’s win in the Senate primary suggests that the Kansas GOP prefers a more centrist message. But Moran’s win was an anomaly. Kobach, Pompeo, Brownback, and Huelskamp suggest that the state has taken a turn to the right.”

At National Review Online, Denis Boyles, author of the insightful book — despite its name — on Kansas politics Superior, Nebraska: The Common Sense Values of America’s Heartland, contributes (Mostly) Good News from Kansas. he starts by laying out the essential facts of the Kansas political landscape: “In Kansas, local politics is often made confusing by the powerful presence of very liberal RINOs [Republicans In Name Only]. They constitute a third party, and their half-century of influence has done some nasty work, most recently insuring the victory, twice, of Kathleen Sebelius.”

Boyles is enthusiastic about the first Congressional district result: “But for people who like their conservatism straight up — no glass, no ice — the best news may be the victory of state Sen. Tim Huelskamp.”

About the fourth district, Boyles wrote: “In Tiahrt’s district, a very liberal Democrat named Raj Goyle will spend a lot of his own money to try to defeat the GOP’s Mike Pompeo, a local businessman with a military career (he graduated first in his class at West Point) behind him. The Wichita newspaper, a McClatchy thing, has always been loyal to Goyle. Fortunately, fewer and fewer readers will notice.”

But for the Kansas statehouse, the picture is not as bright. He presents a message he received from an unnamed Kansas legislator, who wrote: “Overall though, I am very disappointed … we did not change the left-wing Republican margin in the House.”

Boyles concluded: “It’s true that the state senate and the house are both at the mercy of liberal Republicans. RINOs really do tear up the landscape.”

For results of statewide races and other state offices, click on 2010 unofficial primary election results at Kansas Secretary of State.

Tagged as: Elections, Jerry Moran, Kansas first district, Kansas fourth district, Kansas Republicans, Kathleen Sebelius, Kris Kobach, Mike Pompeo, Raj Goyle, Tim Huelskamp

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Tiahrt, in close campaign, comes in second

by Bob Weeks on August 4, 2010

in Politics

At an election night watch party at the Hilton Hotel in Wichita, supporters of Todd Tiahrt in his campaign for United States Senate were encouraged by early returns from Sedgwick and Johnson counties.

Tiahrt led and won in the state’s two largest counties.

But as western Kansas votes started to be tallied, Jerry Moran‘s margin steadily increased as votes for the popular western Kansas Congressman rolled in. The Associated Press called the race for Moran.

At shortly after midnight, Tiahrt and his wife Vicki entered the hotel ballroom to rousing applause from his supporters.

“We want Todd! We want Todd!” chanted the crowd.

“Thank you very much. I love you guys,” said the candidate. He said we ran a strong campaign.

We have a great country, a resilient county, he said. “Lower taxes, smaller government — this is what Kansans want — and what we campaigned on.” He said that he won the third and fourth Congressional districts. The win by Tiahrt in Johnson County was unexpected by most observers.

He thanked his supporters and said he was sorry that he didn’t win.

Addressing the audience, Vicki Tiahrt thanked the supporters and volunteers. “We are winners tonight,” she said.

After his speech, Tiahrt said that his goal is to have a Republican Senator elected from Kansas, so he will be calling Jerry Moran to offer his congratulations and support. He also said he will work to make sure Mike Pompeo is elected to Congress as his successor.

He listed some of his accomplishments — the repeal of the Wright amendment, a new runway at the Wichita airport, grade separations in downtown Wichita, and the capture of the BTK serial killer — and said he had a good run in Congress.

He added that he believes that Pompeo will work as hard as he has.

Asked if he would consider running for other office he said it’s too early to think about that now.

Tagged as: Jerry Moran, Kansas Republicans, Todd Tiahrt, United States Congress

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Sedgwick County votes are all in

by Bob Weeks on August 3, 2010

in Politics

In contested races in Sedgwick County, here are final results:

In Kansas House District 84 Democratic primary, incumbent Gail Finney defeated Inga Taylor 87 percent to 12 percent.

For Sedgwick County Commission, first district Democratic Party Primary, Betty Arnold defeated Juanita Blackmon 69 percent to 30 percent.

For Sedgwick County Commission, fourth district Democratic Party Primary, Oletha Faust-Goudeau defeated Sharon Fearey 50 percent to 49 percent.

For House district 82 Republican primary, Jim Howell won with 48 percent over Joseph Ashby and Van Willis.

In House district 83 Republican primary, veteran Jo Ann Pottorf survived a challenge by Kyle Amos, winning with 52 percent of the vote.

In House district 94 Republican primary, Joe McLeland won with 62 percent over Roy Oeser and Wade Waterbury.

In House district 96 Republican primary, Phil Hermanson wins with 56 percent to Mark Gietzen’s 43 percent.

For Sedgwick County Commission, fourth district Republican Party Primary, Richard Ranzau gets 55 percent of the vote to Lucy Burtnett with 44 percent.

July 29, 2010

July 21, 2010

July 14, 2010

A poll in the race for the Republican Party nomination for United States Senate from Kansas conducted on behalf of the Jerry Moran campaign shows him leading his chief rival, Todd Tiahrt, by a large margin.

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